AFC North 2008 Division Preview         

By: Steel Perch

Baltimore Ravens

  2007 Record: 5-11    2007 PF: 275   PA: 384                     

2008 Schedule difference:  Oakland Raiders and Miami Dolphins                         Team strength:  Defensive front 7       Biggest weakness:  Passing offense            Key Areas of Concern:   QB – WR – Secondary depth – DL depth

Key Additions:   Call it addition by subtraction, but cutting Brian Billick loose and bringing in Cam Cameron the Ravens offense stands a good chance at improving.  Fabian Washington should add depth to a thin secondary.  If anything he will ensure that when injuries occur the Ravens defense won’t fall off the map again.  Don’t expect much from Flacco this year.  It’ll be a big jump from IAA ball to the AFC North.   He is a tall strong-armed pocket passer similar to Derek Anderson.  It’ll take a few years to develop him.   Ayanbadejo and Zbikowski should bolster an already solid ST’s coverage unit.  Gooden and Cousins were nice mid-round picks.

Key Loses:   McNair retired, but losing the McNair of last year is probably an addition.  Jon Ogden is in the same boat.  Both of these guys shot their load in the 2006 season.  In 2007 they weren’t all there.  Anderson and Smith’s losses should be easily replaced by Ray Rice.  All in all this team should be very similar to the one they fielded last year, just a bit deeper and possibly better coached.

Offensive Outlook:   Cam Cameron worked wonders in San Diego with an offense that had average WR’s, but a talented RB and TE combo.  Adding Ray Rice into the mix with Willis McGahee in addition to having Todd Heap should allow Cameron to manufacture some points.  Make no mistake though, with the QB situation still evolving this will be a power running team.  Even with losing Ogden, Baltimore has done a nice job of forming a big powerful run blocking O-line.  Ben Grubbs should be a Pro Bowl caliber OG this year.  Brown, Yanda, Chester, and Cousins make a solid stable along the interior OL.  Gaither and Terry may be a bit shaky at the OT spots, but should hold up in the run game.  Mason and Clayton are solid yet unspectacular players and Williams has a chance to develop into a real nice #3 guy.  They really lack an explosive playmaker however.   Quarterbacks Kyle Boller, Joe Flacco, and Troy Smith should battle it out for starter.  Troy Smith looked good carving up the Steelers last year, and reports are that he looks solid in OTA’s.   He could start and keep the job warm for Flacco.

Defensive Outlook:   It must be noted the biggest defensive addition for the Rats was keeping Rex Ryan in the fold.  He was a candidate for other jobs, and was also fired and on the open market at one point, but somehow found his way back home.    He is a top flight DC and the rest of the division should be sad to see him stay in the AFC North.

The Ravens front line remains dominant, but some holes are forming in the armor.  Kelly Gregg is 32 and Trevor Pryce is on his last legs at 33.  Pryce had trouble staying on the field last year as the injuries are mounting up on him.  Their depth, similar to the Steelers depth at D-line, is the picture of mediocrity.  An injury or two could flatten this defensive front.  Haloti Ngata is developing into a dominant force in this league as expected, but the Ravens did little to bolster this unit.

At LB an aging Ray Lewis is still more athletic than most every starting ILB in the league.  Bart Scott is solid, but a bit of a head case as noted by his antics vs. NE and comments after the Steelers game last year.  Rookie Tavares Gooden will likely get a shot to replace one of those guys after this season as they will be UFA’s. Suggs and Barnes are dangerous outside pass rushers and Jarrett Johnson will likely play opposite Suggs.           

The secondary was helped by adding Fabian Washington to the mix.  He will get a shot to replace Samari Rolle opposite Chris McCallister.  Ed Reed is still the best ball hawk in the NFL, but he keeps getting injured.  Landry is developing into a solid Safety as well.  Depth will still be an issue as Reed and Rolle are injury prone and the only talented depth is Fabian Washington.  Rookie Tom Zbikowski will primarily play ST’s and back-up SS.

Special Teams Outlook:  

Yamon Figurs proved to be a quality return man.  He netted over 1300 return yards and 2 TD’s as a rookie.  The Ravens coverage units are very good, and by adding Zbikowski and ST’s stand-out Ayanbadejo should only strengthen the units.  Matt Stover is a solid kicker and Sam Koch is an average punter.

2008 Season Projections:

The Ravens offense should improve a bit.  Expect a power running attack sprinkled in with a lot of passes to RB’s and TE’s.  The QB situation and lack of playmakers at WR will keep this offense from scoring in bunches, but with their defense 20 points can win them most games.  If they can increase their scoring output from 17 to 20 PPG they could make some noise.  Expect the defense to not be as good as their 2006 form, but they should be a bit better than the 2007 squad was.  Too many old injury prone players and lack of depth will hurt the defense.  They may be closer to a top 10 defense again, but won’t be the dominant Ravens D of old.  Their offense should be improved, but all-in-all this team is likely still 2 years away from being worth a shit.                                                &n bsp;          

Ratbirds 2008 Season prediction : 6-10  (4^th AFC North)

Cincinnati Bengals 

   2007 Record: 7-9    2007 PF: 380   PA: 385

2008 Schedule difference:  KC Chiefs and NY Jets                &nb sp;                                      Team Strength:  Passing offense   Biggest weakness: Defense as a whole                   Key Areas of Concern:   Youth in secondary – Defensive Front 7 – RB’s - Turds

Key Additions:     Adding Antwan Odom to the mix should help the Bengals pass rush out a bit.  Justin Smith was a solid player, but they never got the production out of him they wanted for a top 10 pick.  New DC Mike Zimmer can only help a defense that has floundered for the past decade.  Look for him to mix in some 3-4 looks with their base 4-3.  Depth at LB was a major issue last year and adding Keith Rivers and Darryl Blackstock should solidify things a bit.   Look for rookie DT’s Pat Sims and Jason Shirley to immediately enter and improve the 4 man DT rotation.          Both drafted players had some character concerns coming out, so Cincinnati seems to be the perfect fit.

With Chad Johnson disgruntled, Chris Henry cut/suspended, and TJ Housyourmama an UFA after the season, the Bung drafted up Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell early in the draft.  Simpson projects as a rangy possession type in the TJ Housh mold.  I’d expect him to be the #3 this year and to take TJ’s job after he leaves as an UFA next spring.  Caldwell is another speedy Florida WR.  They tend to be busts, but as a #4 WR and eventual #3 in Cincy he should carve out a nice niche.  Anthony Collins was a 4^th round steal.  Look for him to replace Big Willie Anderson after this year at RT or possibly Levi Jones at LT if his health doesn’t improve this season.  Signing Ben Utecht away from Indy gives the offense a dimension it has never had before, a TE to throw the ball to.

Key Loses:    

Justin Smith would have been a bigger loss had they not signed Odom instead.  I think Odom fills the need better anyway.  Losing Chris Henry is a bigger loss.  He was deadly as a #3 WR.  A healthy Odell Thurman would have been a huge addition, but he was also cut / suspended indefinitely.  Drafting turds never works out Cincy!   The loss of Madieu Williams should hurt a little.  Cincy had some solid rookie safeties last year, but the depth and experience at the position is very thin.

Offensive Outlook:    

With Ben Utech and rookie Matt Sherry in the fold Cincy will finally have pass catching threats at TE.  Unfortunately Utech is just as deadly to his own team as the opponent as he is a dropped catch machine.  The WR corps is among the most talented in the league.  Chad Johnson and TJ Houshmanzadeh are as good as it gets for a starting tandem.  Rookies Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell should fill the #3 and #4 roles very nicely.  More depth is available with rookie Marrio Urutia and veteran Antonio Chapman.  Cincinnati has just about every size and style of WR available and should be able to out up a lot of passing yards and points.  Carson Palmer will again be a fantasy football star.

Quality offensive linemen are in abundance in Cincy as Stacy Andrews will battle Willie Anderson for the RT job, and both are quality players.  At LT Levi Jones should be backed up by a quality rookie in Anthony Collins.  Whitworth is a good LG and the mediocre Bobbie Williams could be challenged at RG by Stacy Andrews or possibly rookie James Blair.  Their Center spot is a weakness with the ho-hum Erik Ghiaciuc as starter and no real talent behind him.

Running back is still a bit of a question mark for Cincy.  Rudi Johnson slimmed down last year in an effort to transform from a power runner to a speedy finesse guy.  That went over like a fart in church and this year he is recommitted to being a power back.  He is on the downside of his career and can’t be relied on as a feature back any more. Kenny Watson and Kenny Irons are the back-ups here, but really aren’t much of a threat.   Irons, if he can stay healthy, will be in his first full season with the team.  He should provide a quality situational threat out of the backfield in the passing game.  Watson is an over-achiever, but is still just a mediocre player.

With the O-line healthier than last year and with some more solid depth added, they should rebound from an average year offensively.  We have been hearing Marvin Lewis talk about adding a power running game to the offense and go with more of a ball control approach.  He definitely has the horses upfront to do it, but I am not buying it in the slightest.  The new talent at TE and WR coupled with the mediocre talent at RB means Cincy will again take to the air a huge percentage of the time, like it or not.            

Defensive Outlook:    

New DC Mike Zimmer has his work cut out for him.  The incompetent Chuck Bresnahan seemed to be a man without a plan and the cupboards aren’t quite fully stocked to say the least.  The D-line has some new talent to work with.  Odom and Geathers should form a respectable DE combination on the line. The talent behind them in Rucker, Fanene, and Craig is very lackluster though.  In the middle John Thornton is a washed up never was who will likely be challenged by rookie Pat Sims.  Look for Sims and fellow rookie Jason Shirley to factor heavily into Cincy’s DT rotation.  The other starter, Domato Peko, has played fairly well at DT the past two years.

Linebacker was a cluster f@!k for Cincy last year.  This year rookie Keith Rivers and Dhani Jones should be opening day starters.  Ahmad Brooks should secure the Sam job over Rashad Jeanty.  Darryl Blackstock will be in the mix as depth at WLB.

In the secondary 3^rd year man Jon Joseph along side 2^nd year man Leon Hall will make for a solid starting CB duo.  Behind them journeyman Deltha ONeal is their only notable CB for depth purposes.  The Safety spot should be an interesting battle.  Aging vet Dexter Jackson should win a starting spot and 2^nd year men Chini Ndukwe and Marvin White should compete for a starting job.  Rookie Corey Lynch may also factor into the mix.

Special Teams Outlook:  

The Bengals are still searching for their return specialist.  Glen Holt didn’t really cut it.  Rookie Andre Caldwell may win that job.  The Bengals coverage units are fairly average and the large rookie class should help a bit there, especially safety Corey Lynch.   Kicker Shayne Graham is amongst the best in the league, and Punter Kyle Larson is decent enough.

2008 Season Projections:

The Bengals figure to be in the driver’s seat in the AFC North as they finished in 3^rd place last year.  Every year since the AFC North was founded in 2001 the team that finished 3^rd the previous year won the division the next year.  The Bengals offense should be even more explosive this year.  Last year all the Bengals had was their top two WR’s and Carson Palmer who wanted to go deep.  That coupled with a banged up O-line, no TE threats, and a slower and weaker Rudi Johnson at RB led to a downturn in offensive production.  This year the O-line should be healthier.  Cincy now has some TE’s who can be legit threats in the passing game, and they should be able to field 5 dangerous WR’s at a time if they choose to.  The defense that yielded nearly 25 points per game should improve slightly.  They are deeper at LB and DT, but still have holes at all 3 levels and will field a very young and inexperienced group as a whole.  They could possibly field 7 players with 3 years or less experience in the league on defense at times, and the transition to a new DC with some 3-4 looks should take some time.   The biggest thing going for Cincy is that 3^rd place schedule. KC and the NY Jets are much easier opponents than SD and NE will be for the Steelers.

Bungles 2008 Season prediction : 8-8  (T-2nd AFC North)