I started writing my little article about seven years ago. In those seven years I have picked the winner of the Patriots and Steelers exactly three times. My point is simple; I can study the matchups, I can factor in the wind, the weather, injuries, hell I can even factor in some bad luck…In this game expect the unexpected. I fear the Patriots like a hippie fears soap and water. Somehow, someway the Patriots always manage to make enough plays to beat the Steelers.

Did you know?

England since a 24-21 overtime victory in 1997.

The Steelers have not allowed an opponent to gain 300 yards of total offense this season.

The Steelers rank first in the NFL in kickoff coverage, allowing 19.2 yards per return. The Steelers also rank first in punt coverage in the AFC and 3^rd in the NFL, allowing 4.8 yards per punt return.

Patriots with the Ball.

The Patriots run the exact same offense with Matt Cassel as they did with Tom Brady. Cassel is a decent quarterback…He is no Tom Brady. The Steelers must force Cassel to make multiple reads…In other words the Steelers must disguise their blitz packages and coverage’s, they must force Cassel to process information after the ball is snapped. Many Steelers fans are concerned about Cassel running…I’m not…If Cassel wants to take off and run with the ball he will he make a mistake…He may fumble, he may have his lights turned out by a linebacker or safety in coverage. The Steelers must play smart assignment based football…Randy Moss can score from anywhere on the field… If the defensive backs blow assignments/ coverage’s this week; 6 points will be on the scoreboard for the bad guys. I expect Bryant McFadden to play as the nickel back this week…McFadden is a great cover corner…He allows LeBeau to be more creative with the blitz packages. The Steelers defense must play with a violent swagger this week.

Matchups

Run game

Matt Light is a dirty bastard…Look at last week’s game against the Dolphins as my evidence. Brett Kiesel is out with a PCL injury…Kiesel’s athleticism and play making ability will be sorely missed this week. I expect the Steelers to start Travis Kierschke at right defensive end. Kierschke can play 25-30 snaps against the run at a high level at this point of his career. I expect the Steelers to wave in a trio of players (Kierschke Eason and Roye) to keep players fresh and playing at a high level. Logan Mankins is a mauling nasty hombre who attempts to finish every block as violently as possible. Casey Hampton must bring his “A” game this week. I expect the Patriots to attempt to establish a run game…Belicheck will not allow the Steelers defense to tee off rushing the passer against his first year starting quarterback...Hampton has to play in the Patriots backfield…Patriots center Dan Koppen is coming off an elbow injury…Casey must smell blood in the water…He must dominate the line of scrimmage. Stephon Neal has been awful this season his shoulder is a mess…He doesn’t have the strength to lock out a defender…With Koppen back from the elbow injury Ross Hochstein could slide into right guard…The right side of the offensive line is the weak link of the Patriots offense. Aaron Smith and Nick Kaczur should be interesting. I expect Aaron Smith to continue his All Pro play at Left defensive end…Smith is the demolition man…He just blows plays up…Kaczur is a decent athlete…He will have no chance of getting movement on Smith in the run game.

The Patriots tight ends are under rated blockers. Ben Watson has the strength and ability to win matchups in the run game against either Steeler outside linebacker. Dave Thomas is a get in the way type of blocker…He will attempt to wall defenders away from the running back…He doesn’t look pretty but he is effective. Randy Moss is a big tall lanky receiver who is more then willing to run block…Moss is no Hines Ward…Moss does have the ability to block any Steelers defensive back. Wes Welker is a below average run blocker…He will try hard…He’s so damn little he is disposed of quickly. Heath Evans is a very good run blocker…He can root a linebacker out of a hole with force. The Patriots running game is ranked 7^th in the NFL for a reason…The Patriots as a team block to the echo of the whistle…They give maximum effort…The Steelers must be prepared for a war.

The Patriots use a running back by committee approach. Lamont Jordan will most likely be out with a calf injury. Sammy Morris is a bowling ball with the ability to make one cut and get up field. Morris has had ball security issues throughout his career…The Steelers must attempt to strip the ball…Turnovers will be a key to this game. Pot smoking Kevin Faulk is a Steelers killer…He is a back in the Mwelde Moore mold…He can do anything you ask a running back to do…Faulk is a threat in the running and passing game…Faulk has killed the Steelers with the 3^rd down draw. BenJarvis Green-Ellis’ running style is very similar to Sammy Morris…He is a big back with decent feet and cutting ability.

Patriots Passing Game

Matt Light is a quality pass blocker…He is not great…But better than average. James Harrison has developed into the best 34 outside linebacker in the game…Harrison is a fantastic pass rusher…A complete pass rusher…What goes unnoticed by most is Harrison’s ability in pass coverage. Logan Mankins will struggle in pass protection from time to time…I believe the Steelers “waving in” of defensive linemen could bear some rewards in this matchup. Dan Koppen is returning from a serious elbow injury…I have no clue how healthy Koppen is…I expect the Steelers to test his health with a variety of interior blitz packages and some line stunts…The Patriots right guards have struggled mightily in pass protection…I expect Hochstein to get the start…Aaron Smith has made a ton of plays against the passing game…I expect Smith to push the pocket and cause chaos for the Patriots passing game…This maybe the game where one of those tip passes are intercepted…Cassel is a tall quarterback with a low release point. Nick Kaczur and Lamar Woodley should be ugly…Kaczur is fairly athletic…He is not very nimble. Woodley will take advantage of Kaczur’s poor balance and harass Cassel a majority of the game in obvious passing situations…Woodley could be the key to this game…The Steelers have never faced the “Great” Patriots teams with two elite pass rushers coming off the edge. The Patriots attempted to block the Dolphins outside linebackers with tight ends…It lasted 2 drives….I pray the Patriots try the same thing this week.

I expect James Harrison and Lawrence Timmons to be very active this week. I expect LeBeau to use both players in a variety of ways...Both Farrior and Timmons must make plays in coverage…I expect both players to draw Ben Watson throughout the game…If the Steelers can limit the Patriots passing game down the middle of the field…They can shut down this offense. Timmons and Farrior will also be used a variety of ways rushing the quarterback…Both players must close the deal when they get there. Conventional thinking is Troy Polamula will matchup with Ben Watson…I believe that would be a waste of Troy’s talents…I would line up Troy all over the field…Every play I would make the Patriots offense account for Troy…I would utilize Troy a variety of ways this week…At times he would be 6 yards off the LOS…Other times he would be giving help over the top with Randy Moss. Speaking of Randy Moss I would give Ike another chance…Ike didn’t play a great game against the Patriots last year…I understand Anthony Smith blew some coverage’s…Ike missed some tackles and left some plays on the field. If Ike wants to take the next step…If he wants to be considered an elite corner he must shut down the best…Randy Moss is the best. Ike will have help…He must trust his ability and the defensive scheme…He can not force things or take chances. Wes Welker is ultra quick and ballsy…He makes the plays for the Patriots offense to keep drives alive…I expect Bryant McFadden to return this week…I do not expect him to start. Willie Gay has been very solid…I believe he will continue to start until McFadden is closer to 100%. Willie Gay is a great tackler with solid coverage technique…Gay can open his hips and run with smaller wide receivers…I believe Gay may give Welker fits. Patriots 3^rd wide receiver Jabar Gaffney is a pass dropping fool…Knowing the Steelers luck he will bring his “A” game this week. Gaffney runs mostly vertical routes in the Patriots passing game…He will clear out the underneath routes for Welker…If McFadden plays he will steal at least 1 ball from Gaffney…Gaffney will not fight for the ball when its in the air…McFadden is a physical corner with quality ball skills. Kevin Faulk and the Patriots screen game must be accounted for…Faulk is a dangerous receiver out of the back field…I expect the Steelers pass rush to limit the opportunities for Faulk in the passing game.

Matt Cassel is a poor mans Ben Roethlisberger…He is a big kid…With great mobility and play making ability…He has a live arm and he will take chances. Cassel can be confused with a variety of coverage’s…He will hold onto the ball and take needless sacks at times…Cassel is not good enough to beat the Steelers without a ton of help. The Steelers can not help the Patriots offense with blown coverage’s, missed tackles, or stupid penalties. If the Steelers play sound fundamental defense I believe the Patriots will struggle to hang touchdowns on the board against this defense.

The Patriots showed 3-4 Wide Receiver sets 80% of the game against the Jets and Dolphins according to the NFL Network. The Pats run game comes mostly from single back…The Steelers must study their keys and diagnose plays. The Steelers must swarm to and attack the ball.

Steelers with the ball

First thing…I can’t believe it took eleven weeks to junk the zone blocking…The Steelers offensive line is not a nimble or intelligent group…They are a big mauling bunch who can win matchups in a phone booth; expecting this group of linemen to zone block was an idiotic concept brought forth by Bruce Arians and Larry Zierlein…I will credit the individual who finally decided to junk the zone block; unfortunately its 3 months late. The Steelers offensive line will be tested by the best three man defensive line in football. I expect Willie Parker to miss this game with swelling in his knee…The Steelers offense will miss Parker’s big play ability…Or at least the threat of Willie Parker’s big play ability. The Steelers offense must protect the ball and execute…The Steelers offense must eliminate the pre snap penalties. The Steelers skill position players could have a huge day…The Patriots linebackers and defensive backs are the weakness of this defense. The offensive line must protect Ben, and Ben must protect the ball.

Matchups

Run game

Max Starks will have his hands full this week with Richard Seymour. Seymour has a rare combination of strength and explosiveness…He has the ability to stack and walk an offensive tackle in the back field. Max Starks is not your typical NFL left tackle. I will be amazed if Seymour can physically man handle Starks in the run game…I actually expect Starks to beat down Seymour at times…Starks tends to play to his level of competition. Starks must play a nasty aggressive game this week if the Steelers expect to have success running the ball. Steelers left guard Chris Kemoeatu continues his inconsistent play in the run game…Kemoeatu has all the tools to absolutely dominate the run game…He continues to make mental and fundamental errors…Kemo can not afford to make the same mistakes week after week…The good news for Steelers fans…Kemo is nasty on down blocks...Kemo and Darnell Stapleton will spend a majority of the afternoon helping Justin Hartwig with Vince Wilfok on interior play side runs…The Steelers double teams must punish Wilfok…Teams have had success pounding the ball at the interior of Patriots defense…The only way that happens is if you block and dominate Vince Wilfok. The ugliest matchup on paper is Willie Colon and Ty Warren. Ty Warren dominated Colon last year…Warren is a very good player...I see no way Willie Colon will be able to block him. Warren is bigger faster and stronger then Colon…Warren is a far better athlete. I hope Willie Colon can get in the way long enough to restrict Warren from making another 5 plays for losses in this game.

The Steelers tight ends will have their hands full with Mike Vrabel…Vrabel has showed signs of slowing down…He still is a very good linebacker. Matt Spaeth and Heath Miller must get off the ball and stick with their blocks.  Adalius Thomas has a broken forearm and he is out for the season. His replacement Pierre Woods is a below average NFL starter. Woods struggles to disengage from blocks and he plays upright…I believe the Steelers tight ends will have some success in the run game against Woods. Teddy Bruschi is done…He has slowed down in every aspect of the game. Bruschi doesn’t diagnose or react to plays like he once did…He doesn’t have the foot speed to run sideline to sideline to make plays…His body will no longer allow him to disengage from blockers. Jerod Mayo gets a lot of publicity from the national media…You would think Mayo is a combination of Jack Lambert and Jack Ham…That’s not what I see…I see a player who makes plays five, six yards down field…He looks like a caboose on the end of a train going for a ride. If the Steelers offensive line can get a hat on a hat and move the line of scrimmage a foot…I believe the Steelers can pound the run at the Patriots at will. Max Starks, Chris Kemoeatu, Justin Hartwig, Darnell Stapleton and Willie Colon must play their best games of the year…Wars are won and lost in the trenches…The Steelers must control the trenches if they expect to win the war. Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should be able to dominate the Patriots corners in the run game. The Patriots safeties are raw but they both hit like cement trucks. Patriots strong safety Brendan Meriweather has issues tackling in the open field…Meriweather can run like a deer…He is a violent player who looks to deliver the knock out blow. Patriot’s free safety James Saunders is terrible. I’m amazed he continues to start for this defense.

Willie Parker will most likely sit out this game with swelling in his knee. If Parker doesn’t have his explosiveness he is at best an average NFL back. The Steelers will lean on Mwelde Moore and Gary Russell in the run game. Both backs must protect the ball and take what’s there…The run game may not be there early in the game…The Steelers backs and offensive coordinator must be patient and allow things to develop. Carey Davis and Sean McHugh must play like jack hammers this week…They must pound the Patriots linebackers teaching them a lesson in violence.

Steelers passing game

Max Starks has continually improved this season. Starks will see a variety of pass rushers from the Patriots defense. Thankfully Adalius Thomas broke his forearm…Thomas is a Steelers killer. Thomas will be replaced by Gary Guyton and Pierre Woods. Both players are speed rushers who are engulfed when engaged by massive offensive tackles…Starks will get some help to the edge…I actually like this matchup for the Steelers. Chris Kemoeatu and Richard Seymour could be ugly. Seymour is a slick pass rusher...He has a full repertoire of rush moves…Kemo must get out of his stance and land his punch this week…If Kemo is caught leaning or lunging Richard Seymour will embarrass him and kill Ben…This matchup is ugly for the Steelers and it scares the hell out of me. Justin Hartwig will look to help both guards…He must be prepared for the interior blitz from the Patriots inside linebackers. Darnell Stapleton and Ty Warren should be interesting. Warren struggles to rush the passer from the interior…Most of Warren’s success rushing the passer comes from his base 3-4 end position…I have some faith in Stapleton…His technique is solid and he never stops moving his feet…When your feet stop the block stops. The Patriots have an outstanding wave player in Jarvis Green…Green’s play has been disappointing so far this season…Lets hope that continues this week. Willie Colon will draw grizzled vet Mike Vrabel in pass pro…This matchup scares me. Vrabel still has the ability to take over a game. I have zero faith in Willie Colon. The Steelers could be in big trouble this week…The Patriots have plenty of weapons to rush the passer…I expect the Patriots zone defenses to take away the check downs and short passing game…The Steelers will have to make plays vertically in the passing game. The best way to slow down a pass rush…Beat them up in the run game…Arians must call a smart game…Arians must call his best game of his career.

As much as I hate the matchups across the offensive line…I love the matchups against the Patriots back end. Lewis Sanders and Ellis Hobbs can not cover Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward…Holmes will draw Hobbs…Holmes must continue to show the desire to run across the middle of the field to make plays…The Steelers were trying to set up the slant and go last week before Holmes went night night. Holmes must run crisp routes and make plays on the ball in the air. Lewis Sanders is terrible. Hines Ward should show up huge in this game…Sanders was abused by Greg Carmillo and Jericho Cotchery the past two weeks…I expect Ward to do the same thing. Nate Washington must be a key weapon in this game…The Patriots will attempt to cover Washington with Delta O’Neal…O’Neal has struggled to make plays on the ball against the vertical passing game for a majority of his career…Washington must make plays for his quarterback. The Patriots safeties have struggled to cover quality tight ends this season. Brandon Meriweather looks like a bust to me. Heath Miller and Matt Spaeth must be key components not only in the passing game…they must win battles in the running game. Patriots’ free safety James Sanders is a step slow in coverage…Sanders reminds me of Ryan Clark without the ability to diagnose plays. If the Steelers offensive line can give Ben time…The skill position players should be able to make a ton of plays.

Ben is getting healthy…I believe Ben will have to take some chances this week. Ben must protect the ball and take what’s there; at the same time…If he sees man coverage with no deep safety help…He must take the chance and chuck the ball deep on time in rhythm…The Steelers offense is struggling to put points on the board…When a defense makes a mistake the offense must capitalize with points…The Steelers offense is not taking advantage of the defensive mistakes.

Special Teams

Even.

Score

Read my opening paragraph…Forget about it.