I would rather be lucky than good. The 2007 Pittsburgh Steelers are a little of both.  Teams are taking away the running game…If teams continue to commit 8 in the box and run blitz… Ben Roethlisberger will continue to light up their defense…Sooner or later teams will realize Ben is the real deal. The Oline play has been putrid in the run game…The unit must improve. The Defense has played light outs. If I had a wish…My wish would be Brett Kiesel never plays another down with his hand off the ground…Kiesel is an athletic 300 pound man…He is not athletic enough to play in space. Kiesel has done a fine job in the run game…He has pushed the pocket…Woodley or Timmons would fill that “ghost” role far better. The Special Teams flat out suck. It’s not the scheme it’s the performance of the players. I have no problems with Warren Reed or Sepulveda …The Return and coverage unit’s blow. Mike Tomlin and his coaching staff must have this Steeler squad ready to play this week on the road.

Did you know?

-Ben Roethlisberger has thrown a touchdown pass in 14 consecutive games dating back to last year

-Hines Ward has five career two point conversions

-Pittsburgh leads the all time series against the Jets…16-2

Jets with the Ball

The Jets have little talent on offense. Running back Thomas Jones is a former thousand yard rusher; Wide Receivers Laveraneus Coles and Jericho Cotchery are reliable targets in the passing game, Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson are quality young offensive linemen to build a team around. The rest of the offensive squad sucks. Quarterback play has killed the Jets this season. Chad Pennington couldn’t win the nine year old division of the Punt Pass Kick competition. His Replacement and current starter Kellen Clemons is your typical Jeff Teford protégé…Very good college player who sucks in the NFL. The Jets will attempt to run the ball to set up the play action passing…It won’t work. The only fears I have this game are simple. Coles beats Townsend deep or Leon Washington busts some big plays (screens draws returns). The Jets maybe the least talented offense that the Steelers will face this year, I see no way this offense puts up 13 points in this game.

Matchups

-Ferguson and Kiesel in the run game… The Jets media guide list’s Ferguson at 305 pounds…I am not buying it. My guess is closer to 290 pounds. Kiesel should dominate this matchup and eliminate the Jets stretch play to the left. Kiesel is the bigger stronger man…Ferguson not only struggles in the run game he tends to be dominated. The Jets opened the season against three 3-4 defenses. Ferguson was destroyed in every matchup.

-Ferguson and Harrison in pass pro…As bad as Ferguson is in the run game he is equally as bad in pass protection. Ferguson allowed 11 sacks in 06…He has allowed 6 sacks in 9 games in 07. Harrison should be able to beat Ferguson to the edge, or up his chest with a straight bull rush. Harrison is mighty strong as most NFL left tackles are finding out…Harrison’s strength is his second best asset…His best asset is his motor…He is relentless rushing the passer. Rosie Colvin took Ferguson to the woodshed in the opening game of the season…I believe the Jets will be forced to keep a TE in to help Ferguson with Harrison or face the risk of losing Clemons for the season.

- Adrien Clarke in the run game…Clarke is a big boy with some run blocking skills. Clarke will spend most of his day doubling Casey Hampton in the run game along with Mr. Over-rated Nick Mangold. Clarke actually looks like a player to me. Don’t get me wrong, Clarke won’t move Hampton with down blocks…Clarke won’t get to the second level…Clarke won’t get walked 2 yards in the back field either.

-Clarke and Kiesel in Pass Pro…I keep waiting for Kiesel to explode rushing the passer. This could be the week. Clarke was a seventh round pick in 05 for a reason…He has limited movement skills. Kiesel won’t beat Clarke with the power game; He can beat Clarke with a finesse game if he sets up his rush. Clarke is susceptible to swim moves and quick interior rushes back inside (Think Alan Faneca).

-Mangold and Hampton…I can’t wait to view this matchup. Prior to the Patriots game this season Jets coach Eric Mangini claimed Mangold could block any nose tackle in the NFL man up in the run game without help…That lasted exactly one quarter. Patriots Nose tackle Vince Wilfok beat Mangold like he owed him money. It was an epic thrashing of a slow, undersized, fat, under skilled, over rated offensive linemen. I expect Hampton to give Mangold the same type of beating in this game. The Jets love the 3 step drop passing game…One problem…Clemons fails to get the ball out on time. Hampton could finish this game with a sack or two…I have zero doubts he places Mangold five yards in the back field every down he is not double teamed.

-Brandon Moore in the run game…The Jets have their answer to Kendoll Simmons…His name is Brandon Moore. Moore sucks when he is asked to block someone (generally a bad thing for an offensive lineman). Moore is also undersized and under skilled. The Jets rarely attempt to run the ball over right guard…Moore is just a waste of a human being. Moore made his first career start against the Steelers in 2003…He actually attempted to chop block Aaron Smith in that game…Players have long memories…Don’t be surprised if Smith looks to get some payback.

-Moore and Smith in Pass Pro…Speaking of payback; Moore lacks functional football playing strength…He has short arms and awful pass blocking technique…He lunges to attack the defender…The Steelers will target Moore with their blitz packages. Moore is mobile…He can slide and protect against an interior defensive linemen…He struggles with blitz pickup against faster interior rushers (linebackers and safeties)

-Clement and Smith in the run game. Aaron Smith played like the demolition man in his first game back against the Browns last week. Smith was all over the field. Smith allows the linebackers to cheat…No matter what the backers know Smith won’t get blown off the ball…They know he will secure his gap and most of the time the gap to his inside and outside. When Aaron Smith is healthy there is not a better left defensive end against the run in the NFL. Clement is 6-8 330…He plays soft…I mean real soft. He gets no movement in the run game. Ty Warren of the Patriots beat Clement up and down the field. I expect Smith to beat the crap out of Clement from the opening whistle on.

-Clement and Haggans in Pass Pro. Haggans does a nice job against big slow immobile right tackles…That description fits Clement to a “T”. I believe Haggans is too quick off the ball for Clement. If Clement gets off the ball and in his pass set he is fairly stout…He really shut down the Ravens and Patriots rushers…As the season has gone on Clement’s play has fallen off…This won’t be a key matchup for the Steelers…It will be a key matchup for the Jets…If Haggans manages to have a big game…The Jets have no chance of running or throwing the ball.

Skill position battles.

The Jets quarterback Kellen Clemons sucks. Clemons lacks arm strength and he is not very accurate. Clemons is a statue in the pocket, don’t get me wrong he has some movement skills outside of the pocket…Clemons has problems reading defenses and avoiding the rush. Running back Thomas Jones has talent but he doesn’t like to get hit at all. I lost all respect for Jones when he decided to run out of bounds instead of taking on and running over Chris McAlister of the Ravens. The Steelers inside linebackers just need to read the offensive line blocking schemes and funnel everything back inside. Foote and Farrior must tackle and not over pursue…Jones is a quality cut back runner. Leon Washington scares me in this game…Washington is a big play waiting to happen in space…The Steelers must rally to the ball when Washington has the ball in his hands and they must punish him. The Jets Tight Ends are decent blockers…I expect Harrison and Haggans to control the edge…Chris Baker the Jets starting tight end can’t run and he is not much of a factor in the passing game. The Jets wide receivers are undersized but skilled. Both are extremely dangerous after the catch…I expect Ike Taylor to draw Coles…Coles and Taylor are similar type athletes…Both have ridiculous ability. Ike must locate the ball in the air…Ike can not bite on any double moves…If Coles catches the ball Ike must limit the yardage with a nice form tackle. That leaves Deshea Townsend with Jericho Cotchery…Cotchery is not real big; he is not real fast…He just makes the plays to move the chains…He is also very dangerous after the catch. The Jets lack a true vertical threat...A majority of the Jets wide receiver yardage comes after the catch. Brad Smith and Justin McCariens the third and fourth wide receivers have combined for 15 catches on the season.

Steelers with the Ball

The Jets are dead last against the run in the NFL. If the Jets could they would call Joe Klecko, Marty Lyons, and Mark Gastineau out of the stands to play the run….Since that’s not an option; I expect the entire Jets defense to be playing run…That means 8 or 9 man fronts. I believe the Steelers must come out throwing the ball…Pick your poison…Parker for 8 or Holmes for 58. So far Bruce Arians has lived up to my expectations…Smart play design, a wide variety of formations and personnel groups, and awful play calling. Heath Miller would be the best Tight End in the NFC…Big man can run some routes and pluck some balls. The Steelers skill position players are very talented…The Steelers offensive line sucks. Ben’s weekly Houdini act is a pleasure to view…He doesn’t need to take those shots…Ben is the franchise…Ben is the Steelers Mario Lemieux circa 1989. Ben has become my all time favorite Steeler…Every game he gives 100%...He may hump the pooch…When he does he is attempting to make a play. Back to that shitty offensive line…They should protect Ben the way the Secret Service protects the president. The run blocking must improve…The Steelers can beat the bum teams without a consistent run game…The Steelers can win a play off game with bum Oline play…They can not win a championship with Bum Oline play…Lets not forget We are the Pittsburgh Steelers…We play for rings or the season was a failure.

Matchups

-Marvel Smith and Kenyon Coleman in the run game…Coleman is a big boy…He is not real quick or super strong…Smith should be able to seal him outside on interior runs.  The Marvel Smith of 2005 could drive block Coleman 3 yards off the ball into a backer creating a crease the size of the Ohio River…Smith needs to step up his game. Smith hasn’t played that bad…He is not a glaring weakness…1 block is the difference between 2 yards and a 72 yard touchdown gallop

-Smith and Hobson in pass pro…Hobson is a poor man’s James Harrison. Hobson is barely 6 foot tall and 252 pounds…He has 2 rush moves…He attempts to guess the count and loop around the edge…Or straight bull rush. Smith should swallow Hobson all game long. Smith must move his feet and keep his balance. If Smith is technically sound in his pass sets Hobson wont make much noise rushing the passer.

-Faneca in the run game…Big Red is a bad man when uncovered. Faneca is great on down blocks. I believe Faneca beats up Robertson in the play side run game. Faneca on the move has been hit or miss this year…He either destroys someone or he blocks air. Faneca has been solid for most of the season in the run game…Solid doesn’t win rings…Great wins rings.

-Faneca in Pass Pro…Dewayne Robertson is fighting a knee injury…I hope he is a step or two slow. Faneca historically struggles against interior rushers like Robertson….Fire plugs with fast explosive first steps. This matchup concerns me.

-Sean Mahan and Robertson …Mahan sucks in the run game…Where have you gone Jeff Hartings? Mahan could play center in a zone blocking system…The Steelers zone block less then 25% of there run plays…Mahan gets zero push at the point of attack. The Steelers guards could not get to the second level last week because Mahan was dominated to the point of being pushed 3 yards into the back field…That just can’t happen…The Steelers way is simple…Our centers kick the s@!t out of the nose tackle without help. Mahan needs to improve his blocking in the run game significantly. Mahan is a very good pass blocker.

-Kendoll Simmons….Blows

-Willie Colon and Shawn Ellis…This will be a test for Colon. I would not be surprised if Colon gets his ass handed to him…Ellis is under rated against the run. I will be happy if Colon can seal Ellis away from the ball carrier…Get in the way basically. Colon has played some solid games this season… Ellis is a streaky pass rusher…Ellis has a bag of tricks rushing the passer…I believe Ellis has a physical advantage over Colon…I believe Ellis is the quicker faster stronger man…I believe Ellis is a better technician than Colon…As I said this will be a test.

-Brian Thomas and Willie Colon in Pass Pro…Thomas is a straight speed rusher…Colon does a nice job with his lateral movement…Colon can handle speed rushers off the edge….When Colon gets beat...Its up his chest

Skill position matchups.

The Jets start rookie former Pitt Panther Darelle Revis at one corner…And Hank Poteat at the other corner….Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes should have big games. David Barret and Andre Dyson both former starters are the nickel and dime corners…Nate Washington is slowly becoming a quality 3^rd wide receiver for the Steelers. The Jets Linebackers suck…I do believe Rookie starting inside linebacker David Harris has a bright future…Harris can make plays sideline to sideline in the run game. Eric Barton is the Jets answer to Larry Foote. The Jets don’t have a player on their roster that can cover Heath Miller. Strong safety Kerry Rhodes is more hype then substance…He will spend a majority of the game 7 yards off the ball playing the run. Abram Elam the Jets starting free safety is a big hitter…He is awful in coverage and he misses a ton of tackles. Willie Parker needs to attack the hole…The Oline play has been awful…He needs to break some tackles and make some plays. Krieder should see more time this week, Carey Davis running blocking seems to get worse every week. Matt Spaeth needs to finish every block…He also needs to catch the freaking ball when he is wide open.

Special Teams

The Steelers coverage units suck…Ike Taylor will replace that bum Allen Rossum…Tackle the freaking ball carrier boys. I have no complaints about the Steelers kickers or Warren. Both return units suck.

Score

Steelers 35

Jets 10