“An ugly win beats a pretty loss, anytime, especially in September; Great teams don’t peak in September, but late in the season for the playoffs.”

The quote above is from Chuck Noll. I don’t know how great the Steelers will be late in the season; I do know a win is a win. The Steelers Ravens on Monday game was a body bag game…A fierce division war between two physical nasty teams that the Steelers won. I will not complain about a win.

I hate Sunday night football. The wait and anticipation suck; to be honest I hate the pageantry and game day production more than anything…The billion commercials, the annoying old trite slut that sings the Sunday Night football theme song…Basically I hate everything about the NBC broadcast of the game.

The Steelers and Jaguars played two great games last year…I understand as a Steelers fan the results were not great…The games were hard hitting and action filled.

Did You Know?

The Steelers own an 11-12 all-time mark in Sunday Night games

The Steelers are 8-11 all-time against the Jaguars in the regular season.

David Garrard is 79 of 117 passing for 783 yards with two touchdowns and four interceptions in the first four games of 2008.

Jaguars with the Ball

Jaguar’s offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter built this offense around a power running game. The Jaguars take advantage of quarterback David Garrard’s mobility with a ton of roll outs and play action bootlegs hoping to exploit one on one matchups with the Jaguars mammoth wide receivers. The Jaguars offense is plodding and methodical…They will pound the run with two outstanding tailbacks and a great lead blocker…The Jaguars offense must control the line of scrimmage to have success…This Jaguars team is a lot like the Steelers teams of the late 90’s…If you eliminate the running game the offense will struggle.

Matchups in the Run game

Jaguars left tackle Khalif Barnes is very athletic…He is not the biggest or strongest left tackle in the NFL…He is actually built more like a NBA power forward than a NFL left tackle…Barnes is a decent run blocker at the point of attack…I believe Kierschke Paxon and Roye will more than hold their own against Barnes in the run game…My only concern is Barnes’ ability to make blocks at the second level in the run game. Jaguars left guard Uche Nwaneri is a mauler with limited physical skills and technique…I believe Nwaneri will struggle mightily this week to get to the second level to pick off Steelers linebackers in the run game…Nwaneri is a decent guard in a phone booth when he has to make a block in space he struggles…Nwaneri has slow feet and poor balance, two bad characteristics for an NFL linemen. The Jaguars will really miss center Brad Meester…I rated Meester the best center in the AFC to begin the season…Meester’s replacement Dennis Norman is a quality back up…He is nowhere near the player Meester is. Norman is very tall and plays the game “high”…I believe Norman will need some help with Chris Hoke in the run game…The Jaguars were forced to help Norman last week with Texans defensive tackles Travis Johnson and Amobe Okoye when Norman was covered …The Jaguars interior run game sputtered because the Jaguars were unable to block the Texans linebackers (Taylor and MJD combined for 17 rushes and 58 yards). Jaguars start journeymen Milford Brown at right guard…Brown has been the Jaguars best offensive linemen so far this season. Brown is a huge right guard with unrated mobility and a very large mean streak…Brown is a big man who plays big…Chris Hoke must force double teams this week…James Farrior Larry Foote and Lawrence Timmons will be in big trouble if Brown locks on in the running game. Jaguars right tackle Tony Pashos has been a Steelers killer his entire career…He is a fat sloth who seems to have his best games against the Steelers. Tony Pashos has owned Aaron Smith in the past 4 games going back to Pashos day’s in Baltimore…Aaron Smith must win this matchup if the Steelers expect to win the game… it’s that simple.

Tight end Mercedes Lewis has developed into a decent blocker in the run game…On paper Lewis should get dominated by the Steelers outside linebackers…Lewis did an outstanding job last season in the run game against the Steelers…He humiliated James Harrison and Clark Haggans on several run plays…If the Steelers expect to win this game on the road that can’t happen again. Jaguars’ second tight end Greg Estandia is softer than silk and a liability in the run game. The Jaguars starting Wide Receivers Reggie Williams and Matt Jones are excellent run blockers…The Steelers corners better be prepared to beat some blocks this week or they will end up on their ass staring up at the evening sky. Jaguar’s fullback Greg Jones is a hammer…He is a 255 pound man who destroys linebackers at the point of attack…He may be the best blocking fullback in the NFL. Tailback Fred Taylor has been battling a hand injury…He should be good to go Sunday night against the Steelers…Taylor has given the Steelers defense fits over his career. Jaguar’s running back 1A Maurice Jones-Drew has been hampered by an ankle injury a majority of the season…MJD claimed he was 100% after the Jaguars game Sunday…That’s not good news for Steelers fans.

The Jaguars ran the ball between the tackles last year at will against teams. The Jaguars interior offensive line sucks so far in 08…If the Steelers get off the ball I have zero fears of the interior run game. My main concern is on the perimeter of the defense. The Steelers outside linebackers and cornerbacks must get off blocks and form tackle. David Garrard has turned into Kordell Stewart the past few games running the ball…The Steelers must account for Garrard on scrambles…Remember last year.

James Farrior Larry Foote and Lawrence Timmons will make plays all over the field if the defensive line does there job…The Steelers inside backers have done a fine job of beating blocks and making plays so far this season…That is a trend that must continue this week.

Matchups in the passing game

Khalif Barnes will need help with James Harrison…Hopefully Harrison becomes Mr. Sunday night to go along with his title of Mr. Monday night. Barnes is long and athletic…Barnes has allowed 2 sacks this season…Both times he was beat back to inside…Harrison needs to get off the ball, something he struggled with last season against the Jaguars. Jaguars left guard Uche Nwaneri is awful in pass protection…I believe this is a major weak link for the Jaguars in pass pro…The Steelers will really miss Brett Kiesel’s athleticism this week. I would not be surprised if the Steelers trio of left defensive ends gives Nwaneri issues rushing the passer. Jaguars center Dennis Norman is decent in pass protection…The Jaguars have not faced a blitzing team this season….So how they react and block the Steelers blitz packages is a mystery until Sunday evening. Milford Brown has been cut by three teams over the past four seasons because of his inability to pass protect…Brown has been solid in pass protection so far this season…Aaron Smith and Brown could be one of those key matchups to look for…The Steelers have to collapse the pocket around Garrard while maintaining their rush lanes. Tony Pashos really struggled with Lamar Woodley last season…Wood must bring his “A” game rushing the pass this week…I believe the Steelers have a big time advantage against the edge of this offense rushing the passer…The Steelers must attack and continue attacking throughout the game…The Steelers goal should be to force the Jaguars to chip Harrison with a back and keep a tight end in to help with Woodley.

The Steelers corners matchup very well with the Jaguars receivers in the passing game. Matt Jones is improved…He is a big kid with great athletic skills who is becoming a quality wide receiver… Reggie Williams is a Wr who is built like a TE that just catches touchdowns. Ike Taylor and Bryant McFadden should have no problems contending with either receiver in coverage…Jaguars slot Wr Dennis Northcutt is a speedster who has made some big plays against the Steelers in his career…Deshea Townsend looked rusty in his return…I expect Townsend to show up big in this game…Look for Townsend to blitz off the slot wide receiver a few times this week. Jaguars tight end Mercedes Lewis is a huge target the Jaguars use to attack the middle of the field…Troy Polamula looks great in 08…Lewis may make some plays…He won’t make plays to decide this game…He doesn’t have the talent to make game changing plays. Ryan Clark is getting back his game…He was very rusty the first few games of the season…He is reading plays and formations at a faster rate every week…He is very close to making some big plays for this defense.

Three major things to look for

The ability of the Steelers defensive line to keep the linebackers clean

The Steelers ability to play the screen and draw game…The Jaguars murdered the Steelers in this area last year

The Steelers ability to keep rush lanes and gap integrity.

Steelers with the Ball

Everyone expects the Steelers to morph into a Run Shoot offense with the loss of Parker and Mendenhall this week…I don’t. The Steelers game plan will not change; The Steelers will attempt to run the ball with the hope of setting up the vertical play action passing game. The Steelers will continue to show multiple formations and personnel sets to attempt to exploit matchups.

What I continue to hope for is a moving pocket…Where are the roll outs and bootlegs? Ben is a very mobile quarterback who excels at throwing the ball on the move…The Steelers have to change Ben’s “Launch point”...You can not allow NFL defenses to key in on a location and rush to a certain point of the field. The No Huddle offense is a nice wrinkle, by no means is it the answer to the Steelers woes on offense. Bruce Arians and the entire offensive staff must do a better job with play calling and preparation of the players.

Matchups in the Running game.

Marvel Smith and Reggie Hayward/ Derrick Harvey should be a big advantage for the Steelers in the run game. Marvel Smith has been a major disappointment in my eyes in the run game…That must change if the Steelers expect to beat quality teams. Reggie Hayward is a big power end; he is quick off the ball and fairly stout at the point of attack. He has been struggling with a hamstring injury; his replacement, Derrick Harvey is an athletic speed rusher who offers little to nothing against the run. In an ideal world the Steelers tight ends could down block the Jaguars defensive ends and get some movement…They could not get the job done last year…I doubt they can get the job done this year. Chris Kemoeatu has to learn to keep his head up in the run game…You can’t block what you can’t see…You can’t pick up run blitzes you can’t see. Kemo has the physical tools to be a dominant offensive guard in this league…Kemo and Rob Meier could be an interesting interior battle…If Kemo is technically sound he will maul and own Meier, if Kemo continues to make the same mistakes week in week out the Steelers run game will be bogged down in the backfield. Justin Hartwig takes such a bum wrap from know nothing Steelers fans…Fans watch a few games and decide they are experts…Hartwig will not be covered this week…His task will be sealing off the backside of run plays and chasing down speedy Jaguar linebackers in the run game…Darnell Stapleton welcome to the NFL… now go block John Henderson in the run game. Stapleton practiced with the first team offense on Wednesday and Thursday that leads me to believe he will get the start on Sunday night. I was very impressed with Stapleton’s effort on Monday night…John Henderson is huge…. He could destroy the interior of the Steelers offensive line…I don’t think he will…I believe Stapleton holds his own and makes the Simmons extension look like another retard move by the front office/coaching staff. Willie Colon and Paul Spicer is going to be ugly for the Steelers…Spicer dominated Colon all over the field in both matchups last year…I have way more fear of this matchup than the Stapleton Henderson matchup. Last week I received at least a dozen emails saying I must be happy that Simmons went down…That’s not the case…I feel the football gods allowed the wrong linemen to get hurt…I hate Colon even though he played a decent game against the Ravens…Colon does nothing well except talk a big game. He is short fat slow and dumb…Not traits I like in linemen…Those know nothing Steelers fans who were attacking Hartwig…Defend Colon…Morons. Spicer will wreak havoc on the Steelers this week…Colon can’t block him in the run or passing game.

The Steelers top two Tight Ends squat to piss in the run game…They play patty cake and catch a beating…If the Steelers expect to run the ball to the perimeter of the Jaguars defense they must find a way to get the Jaguars defensive ends and outside linebackers blocked…Heath Miller and Matt Spaeth can’t play like four year old little girls in pig tails. Sean McHugh showed Steelers fans something last week…A tight end willing to block. Matt Spaeth should be concerned…Very concerned. McHugh is also a quality pass catcher…Nothing great…Just as good as Spaeth in my opinion. Late word out of Pittsburgh..Carey Davis is out...I expect McHugh to take his place...I actually like it...McHugh shows zero fear or concern for his body lead blocking.  Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes give as much effort run blocking as any wide receivers in the league…I wish the Steelers Tight Ends had the heart of the Steelers wide receivers.

I expect Mwelde Moore to get the start and Gary Russell to be the top backup. Moore is a 210 pound back….He is not the frail scat back some will lead you to believe. Moore is a good enough back to win with…I don’t expect Moore to get 30 carries in the game…If he does that’s a good sign for the Steelers because they built a lead and they are trying to milk the clock. Gary Russell will get his chance to show something…I have been a fan of Russell since his Golden Gophers days where he was the starter in front of Marion Barber. Russell has quality vision and decent cutting ability…He runs hard and behind his pads.

Bottom line is this…The Steelers offensive line and Tight ends must win matchups at the line of scrimmage. The Steelers backs must attack the hole and protect the ball. The Jaguars may have the quickest trio of linebackers in the NFL…All three struggle to beat blocks…If the Steelers manage to get a hat on a hat…The running game will be there.

Steelers passing game

Marvel Smith and Reggie Hayward/Derrick Harvey…I expect to see Harvey on some passing downs. Marvel Smith should dominate either player…Smith doesn’t always look pretty; all and all he is fairly effective as a pass blocker. Will good Kemo or bad Kemo show up this week for the Steelers?…Good Kemo has decent technique and just mauls pass rushers…Bad Kemo forgets his technique and is left standing waving at air…The Steelers need good Kemo this week…The Jaguars interior rushers offer little to nothing rushing the passer hopefully that continues this week. Justin Hartwig must keep his head on a swivel….The Jaguars will break tendencies and blitz this week….The Steelers will continue to see blitzing defenses until they prove they can protect Ben. Stapleton may need some help with John Henderson…Stapleton did a fine job anchoring last week against the Ravens…John Henderson will be a test…If Stapleton plays the way he did last week the Steelers found there right offensive guard of the future. Willie Colon I hope you prove me wrong…I expect Colon to be a turnstile against Paul Spicer and Quinton Groves ...As I said earlier Colon does nothing well except talk.

The Jaguars secondary have been the walking wounded so far this season. Both starting Jaguars corners are injured…Steelers killer Rashean Mathis left last weeks game with a severe shin bruise…He is expected to play this week though he was very limited at practice Thursday…Last year Mathis shut down Santonio Holmes in both games…He actually made Holmes look like a bum…If Mathis plays that can’t happen this week. The other Jaguars corner Drayton Florence has a groin injury…He could not practice on Wednesday or Thursday... I don’t think he is going to play Sunday…That leaves William James as the starter…James sucks…Hines Ward should take him to school. Jaguars starting free safety Reggie Nelson has a knee injury…He could not practice on Wednesday or Thursday…He may give it a go on Sunday…If he plays he won’t be close to 100%. Jaguars’ strong safety Brian Williams is a converted corner who struggled to tackle players as a corner…Moving Williams to safety makes zero sense to me. Williams has good ball skills and above average speed for a safety.

The Steelers Wide Receivers and Tight Ends must run clean routes and makes plays for Ben.

The Steelers Oline must give Ben time to throw the ball.

Bruce Arians has to call his best game of the year.

Special Teams

Knock on Wood the Steelers coverage units have been outstanding. The Steelers return game sucks. I expect Najeh Davenport to return kicks and Santonio Holmes to return punts (I disagree with my partner in crime Hardnose about this).

Score

Jaguars 16

Steelers 26