Bargain Shoppers Guide To The NFL Draft

Posted Fri, 04/09/2010 - 09:38 by steelperch

 

When teams look at positions of need for the upcoming draft, they realize that they can't fill every need with 1st round talent, much to the chagrin of most fans.  It becomes imperative to scout throughout the draft and find players who can do the same type of things that the elite players at the top of the draft are capable of, but in later rounds.  The goal is to try and fill your holes with players throughout the draft that can be effective NFL players, realizing you aren’t likely to get a class full of stars, but getting solid role players is indeed a win in later rounds.  Your lower round players likely aren’t quite as good, or as polished, and likely have a few more warts, but the hope is that they can perform the job at a similar level as their more highly touted counterparts.  Here is a look at some of this year’s top players, and their bargain basement generic versions.

Golden Tate - WR - Notre Dame vs Andre Roberts - WR - Citadel

Measurables: 

Tate:  5'10 199, 4.42 40yd, 35" vj, 10' lj, 4.34 shuttle, 7.12 cone

Roberts:  5'11 195, 4.40 40yd, 36" vj, 10' lj, 4.15 shuttle, 6.77 cone

Key Stats:

Tate:  157 catches, 2707 yards, 26 TD's  5.1 PR avg with 1 TD 

Roberts: 250 catches, 3186 yards, 32 TD's,  14.0 PR avg with 3 TD's

This comparison shop is one of do-it-all speedy receivers/return men.  Tate could be this year's Percy Harvin, and Roberts could be another Johnny Knox.  Last year in this column I compared my favorite receiver in the draft (Jeremy Maclin) to a guy who was equally talented and productive (Mike Wallace), but got little pre draft hype.  As it turned out, both had solid rookie seasons, and the 3rd round pick Wallace had equal production to what Maclin had as a 1st round pick.  This year we have another likely 1st round draft pick in dynamic receiver Golden Tate.  Tate is projected to be a starting WR and return man on his NFL team next season.  His mirror image comes in the form of little known Citadel WR Andre Roberts.  Both players put up solid receiving and return stats in college.  Both men performed very well at the combine, and measured in around 5'11 200 lbs.  Each ran near 4.4 40's, had adequate bench reps, and excellent leaping measurements.  Roberts however, slightly out-performed Tate in some of these areas, and was much better in the 3 cone and shuttle drills where he bested Tate by .2 and .35 seconds.   Unlike last year where Wallace was a power conference performer, Roberts played at the Citadel which brings into question the level of competition he faced. Concerns linger about both players limited size and ability to beat a jam at the next level.  With Tate you'll have to invest a 1st round draft pick to find out, with Roberts it's likely a 3rd or 4th round pick for the Malt-O-Meal version of Golden Tate.

Brandon Spikes – ILB - Florida   vs.   Michah Johnson – ILB - Kentucky

Measurables:

Spikes: 6'3 250, 5.05 40yd

Johnson: 6'2 260, 5.0 40yd

Key Stats: (career)

Spikes: 307 tackles, 31.5 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 14 PD, 6 INT

Johnson: 285 tackles, 23.5 tfl, 3.5 sacks, 9 PD, 2 INT

Here we look at two stout, but speed limited 3-4 ILB's.  There are many similarities between these two players.  Both were productive leaders of their SEC defenses, both are super-sized ILB's, and both had their draft stock badly hurt by sloth-like 40 times.  Spikes stock likely fell from round 1 to round 2 or 3.  Johnson likely fell from round 5 to a late round pick or UDFA.  Both players project best to 3-4 ILB's.  The concerns with each player’s speed is legitimate, but With Brandon Spikes you'll likely need to invest an early round pick to find out if he can make it work, with Johnson you'll only need to take a flyer with a late round pick.  Teams will have to decide what makes more sense, investing a premium pick on Brandon Spikes, or simply taking a flier on the Sam’s Club version in Micah Johnson late in the draft.

Brian Price, DT, UCLA   vs.   Geno Atkins, DT, Georgia

Measurables:

Price: 6'1 303, 5.12 40, 33 reps, 28.5 vert, 1.75 10yd, 8'0 lj  

Atkins  6'1 293, 4.75 40, 33 reps, 33 vert, 1.68 10yd, 8'8 lj.

Key Stats: (over 3 seasons)

Price:  (44.5 TFL  12.5 sacks) 

Atkins: (33 TFL 10.5 sacks) 

From oversized and slow-footed to undersized and fleet of foot, here are some athletic UT's from major conferences.  Offenses had a helluva time keeping either out of the backfield as both players had eye-popping tackles for losses stats. Both Price and Atkins project ideally to be undersized 3 techniques in a 4-3 defense at the next level.  Concerns about size and ability to hold the point vs larger linemen in the NFL are valid.  Brian Price is projected to go late round 1, whereas Geno Atkins is likely going to fall somewhere in the 3rd to 4th round range. 

We had the luxury of watching Atkins perform at a high level at the Senior Bowl.  He also outperformed Price at the combine in every key measurable.  Both players rely on speed and quick twitch movements to gain an advantage, and Atkins was the faster player and more explosive leaper. On tape Price displayed a bit more ability to get into the backfield and disrupt plays, but Atkins wasn't far behind.  Both players may be scheme limited due to their limited stature, but it might be a safer gamble to go with the store brand in Atkins vs. the premium 1st round brand name player in Price. 

Shaun Cody, NT, Alabama vs Linval Joseph, NT, ECU

Measurables:

Cody 6’4 349

Joseph 6’5 328

With a first round pick, teams must find a player who is a unique talent or is a good player at a position of great importance.  Nobody can deny the value of a good NT in the 3-4 defense, just look a all of the franchise tags on NT's this off-season.  Planet theory applies here as there aren’t many men on the planet this large that are athletic enough to play pro football.  However when drafting one of these plus-sized fatties, you also have to realize that you are essentially drafting a 2 down player in most cases.  With Mt Cody's weight problems you also run the risk of him eating himself out of the league in a few years.  The same rings true with Joseph who entered college at 370 lbs after an injury aided in his “freshman 50” weight gain.  If you like the player in Cody, but don’t like the steep price of a 1st round pick, maybe the budget-brand version in Joseph better suits your needs.

Jared Odrick, DE, PennState vs Brandon Deadrick, DE, Alabama

Measurables:

Odrick 6’5 305, 5.08 40yd

Deadrick 6’5 315  5.08 40yd

Two players that both prohect best to defensive ends (five-techniques) in the 3-4 defense, one is a 1st round lock while the other is a day 3 prospect.  Odrick jumped out every game you watched him as a guy who would make a very good NFL 5 technique.  His length, strength, and mobility often earn him comparisons to Aaron Smith and Richard Seymour, the two best 5 techniques this decade.  When watching the Alabama line looking to be impressed by Terrence Cody, it was often Brandon Deadrick that was the guy to make the impressive stuff at the line.  His experience in the 3-4 defense under Nick Saban will only help transition to the NFL.  Teams missing out on the premium 5-technique in this draft in round 1 could land Deadrick from the reduced rack late in the draft and get an effective starter on the cheap.

Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho vs John Jerry, OG, Ole Miss

Measurables:

Iupati: 6'5 331, 34 3/4" arm,  5.26 40yd, 7'8 lj

Jerry:   6'5 328, 34” arm,      5.15 40yd,  8'04 lj         

This one has been discussed a bit on the board over the past few months as Pro Football Weekly currently rates them as the 1st and 2nd best Guards in this draft, and both are of similar size, style, and measurables.  Many Steelers fans are now clamoring for the team to draft their 3rd Guard in the top round in just 13 seasons, nearly as many as the rest of the NFL combined.  Iupati went from relative unknown to potential top 20 pick in the past six months.  He possesses a rare combination of size, strength, and athleticism for a guard.  His counterpart John Jerry was a solid 4 year starter in the SEC.  He started games at both guard and tackle.  On a weekly basis he faced the best of the best defensive lines in the NCAA, and was a consistently dominant player, opening holes for a highly rated Ole Miss rushing attack.  Both are big men, even for the position, and move surprisingly well for their size.  Leaked wonderlic test scores also show both have intelligence hovering somewhere between a rotwieller and a special education 3rd grader. At the Senior Bowl both performed very well during practices, but Iupati struggled with quick interior pass rushers in the game and was called for holding and allowed a sack.  The limitations are similar with each player.  The questions as to whether each will handle quick inside pass rushes and complex blitzing schemes lingers, as will concerns about their ability to grasp an NFL playbook.  Iupati’s upside is limitless with his rare frame, size, athleticism, and strength.  He is still a raw prospect, whereas Jerry is pretty polished.  The team drafting Iupati does so with hopes he will blossom into something rare.  The team that takes Jerry is getting a more polished, lower ceiling player who isn’t far off of what Iupati is right now as a power run blocker.  So the question is, if you are an NFL GM shopping to fill your grocery list with the limited resources, which better fits your budget?  Do you want the 1st round $200 pair of True Religion jeans in Iupati, or are you willing to settle for a $20 pair of Wranglers in John Jerry in the middle rounds?

Gerald McCoy vs Mike Neal

Measurables:

McCoy: 6'4 295, 5.02 40, 23 reps, 30.5 vert, 1.68 10yd, 9’6 lj    

Neal  6'3 294, 4.87 40, 31 reps, 33 vert, 1.60 10yd, 9’5 lj.

Key Stats: (over 3 seasons)

McCoy:  (84 tackles, 33 TFL  14.5 sacks) 

Neal: (99 tackles, 26 TFL, 13 sacks) 

We have two very athletic 3-tech tackles that also could get looks as 5-tech defensive ends.  

Both players came from top conferences; both were productive three-year starters.  This is another case where on paper, the two players have very similar resumes and measurables, however when it comes to hype McCoy is a top 5 player in the draft and Neal is thought to be a day 3 prospect.  Teams looking for an athletic DT that can wreak havoc in the backfield and also hold up against the run would probably love to have the widely hyped Gerald McCoy.  McCoy on tape is obviously the superior player, however with some coaching and patience Mike Neal possesses similar attributes that can be developed into a quality NFL player who is capable of doing many of the things Gerald McCoy will be asked to do.