Destruction of a Position

How the expanded season to 18 games will destroy the running back position as we know it.

In light of the word leaking from the owners meetings that an 18 game season is inevitable, and could happen as soon as 2011, people are already wondering how it will affect the quality of the game.   One position in particular will be dramatically changed, and that position is running back.

It is known as the Rule of 370, or more accurately the Curse of 370.   Any time that a running back has carried the ball 370+ times in a season, they invariably suffer a major injury or have a significant drop off in production the following season.  Why is that number more significant under an 18 game season?   Because if a back averages just 20 carries per game he hits the dreaded 370 mark.  There have been a few exceptions to the rule, Eric Dickerson escaped the curse 3 times before it caught up to him.  Ladainian Tomlinson in his second season had 372 carries then followed it up with one of his best seasons the following year.  His career kept on a strong path afterwards.   Here are some notable examples of what happens when a running back gets over 370 carries per season from recent years.

Shaun Alexander (2005):  Hit the 370 carry mark in the regular season which lead the league. Averaged 9 games per season and 3.3 YPC after his heavy 2005 work load.

Terrell Davis (1997-1998):  Posted  369 carries in the 1997 season (481 including postseason) then had 391 carries in the 1998 regular season. After these two seasons Davis went from 4.8 YPC to 3.8 YPC, played an average of 6 games per season, and injuries ended his career only 3 years later at the age of 29.   His career was effectively over at age 26.

Curtis Martin (2004): Another in the line of backs who led the league with 371 carries.  He was battered and bruised and retired the next season after averaging 3.3 YPC through 12 games.

Ricky Williams (2002/2003):  Williams had back to back seasons with over 380 carries.  After that time he fell off the deep end and was out of the league.  All of those caries drove Ricky to the wonders of medical marijuana, and yoga.

Jerome Bettis (2000):  The Bus had 355 carries, then over the next 5 seasons he was never able to start more than 11 games. 

Willie Parker (2007): Parker was on pace for a 370 carry season, when at his 321st carry at the beginning of his 15th game ended in a broken leg.  He followed this heavy work load up with a 2008 season where he was nagged by injuries, missed 5 games, and saw his YPC fall from a career 4.4 to a mere 3.8. 

Barry Foster (1992) 390 regular season carries, followed up by injury in 1993 and out of the league in 1994 with only 5 NFL seasons under his belt.

Larry Johnson (2006) Carried the ball a ridiculous 416 times in the regular season.  Since that time, during what should have been his prime, LJ has averaged only 10 games a season and hasnt even had a 200 carry season or more than 5 TD's.

Stephen Jackson (2006) Had a career high 346 carries and looked to emerge as the premier RB in the game.  Since then he has been nagged by injuries and has averaged only 12 games and 1020 yards per season despite being in his early 20's..

Eddie George (2000): 403 regular season carries, then was never again able to average over a measly 3.4 YPC again.  Retired a few years later.

Jamal Lewis (2000):  412 carries including the postseason. Lewis tore his ACL the next year.  After only his 3rd season his YPC dropped almost a full yard per carry and never had the same explosiveness again.

Ahman Green (2003):  403 including the postseason. Dropped from 5.3 yards per carry in 2003 to 3.3 yards per carry by 2005, and has never been the same player again.

Why are these examples important?  Because under the new 18 game season a running back getting 20 carries per game will break the 370 carry mark every year.  Late in the season most players are playing banged up.   What happens when a playoff race goes into week 17 and 18?  Even with as few as 18 carries per game a back will post 324 carries, which is more than all but 3 backs carried for in the NFL this season.

Here are some stats to chew on:

*Running backs with 300 to 369 carries will see total yards drop by 15 percent the following year, and yards per carry by two percent.

*Players who surpass 370 total carries (combined regular and poast-season) see a 27 percent drop in total yards, and a 10 percent drop in yards per carry the following year. 

*Players with 390 or more total carries, averaged a 33 percent drop in total yards, and an 11 percent drop in yards per carry. (Stats from Football Outsiders)

The premier young runners in the game today like Adrian Peterson and Michael Turner averaged about 24 carries per game this year.  Under an 18 game season that is about 416 carries in a season, before playoffs.  At that pace you can just about guarantee your major investment in a franchise RB will be washed up in 3 to 4 years tops.

Every team will need to adopt the multiple back philopophy that teams like Tennesse, Jacksonville, NY Giants, and Carolina used this past season.  Two backs getting 200 carries each will need to be the norm, or a franchise back like an Adrian Peterson will need to be replaced every 3 or 4 years.

If the players union and the NFL really cared about player safety they would not expand the season to 18 games.  The other proposal on the table is to also expand the wild card births so no team gets a bye week in the playoffs.  That means teams making it to the Super Bowl will have to play 22 full NFL games.  At 20 carries per game that is 440 totes of the rock that a back will have to burden!

Another downside to the proposal is eliminating 2 preseason games.  Having only 2 preseason games means that rookies will rarely be ready to contribute to their teams.  Undrafted players chances of making the roster will fall as they will have less time to prove themselves.  The next James Harrison or Willie Parker will likely be cut  in favor of a player the team invested a draft pick in and didnt have enough time to properly evaluate in preseason games.

Currently the average RB lasts about 4 NFL seasons.  The premier backs can last 10-12, with about 8 being highly productive.  The two extra games will cut a full year off the career of most runners.