Steelers Offseason Outlook

Off-season Outlook:    A week removed from the Super Bowl, Kevin Colbert, Omar Khan, and the Steelers front office has a lot of work to do to put together the 53 men that will make up the 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers roster.  Fortunately for them they have few key players that are unrestricted free agents, a solid amount of cap space, and will be armed with 9 draft picks heading into this April's draft. Here is an attempt to shine some light on what lies ahead in the months between the Super Bowl and training camp.

Cap Room:    The Steelers sit in the middle of the NFL pack in available cap room with just under $20 million, ranking them 16th in the league in that department.  Teams need to keep cap room available for in-season roster moves and the draft, so figure the Steelers have roughly $13-15 million available to re-sign their own free agents, bring in other teams free agents, and extend contracts.  

Unrestricted & Restricted Free Agents  

2009 UFA’s:    CB: Bryant McFadden   QB: Charlie Batch & Byron Leftwich   -  OG: Chris Kemoeatu  -   OT: Max Starks, Marvel Smith, & Trai Essex  - WR:  Nate Washington LB: Arnold Harrison , Keyaron Fox

2009 RFA: OT: Willie Colon  - FS: Anthony Smith - CB: Anthony Madison - FB: Carey Davis - TE: Jon Dekker

The first area to look at is the RFA's.  Figure anyone from this group the team wants back, will be back as RFA tags are relatively low-dollar 1 year deals.  Willie Colon is a lock to be back, and the rest of these guys, save Jon Dekker, are also possibilities.  Moving on to the UFA's, the Steelers have 2 likely paths they could take.  Path 1 would be to re-sign Max Starks and a bunch of the role players such as Kemoeatu, Essex, Fox, and Washington and let Bryant McFadden walk.  The 2nd option would be to make a run at keeping both Starks and McFadden and let the majority of these role players walk.  With the team's top 4 OT's being free agents the obvious top priority will be re-signing Max Starks any way you slice it.  As of today the Steelers starting OT's are Jason Capizzi and Tony Hills.    I'll let that one sink in for a minute... With Starks likely working out a long term deal to remain with the team, and Colon likely getting a high RFA tender, the Steelers will be able to at worst, field the same starting OT's as this year heading into the draft.  Trai Essex could come back as a back-up across the line at a reasonable cost.   Marvel Smith is a bit of a wildcard.  The Steelers know his back's condition better than anyone.  A report leaked out a few weeks back saying he was healthy enough to be on the playoff roster, but was already placed on IR.  Does that lead us to believe the Steelers attempted to hide him and make other team’s thing his back is worse than it is, or was the report a fluff job to try and stimulate a market for Smith in free agency?  At any rate the only way Smith returns is if he gets no serious offers elsewhere and comes back cheap.  Dick Lebeau seems to truely dislike Anthony Smith, so he won't likely be tendered.

Franchise & Transition Tags: The Steelers seldom ever use either the franchise or transition tag.  Last year's use of the transition tag on Max Starks came as a bit of a shock. This year the Steelers have two players that could potentially get tagged.  Taking a closer look, if the Steelers can't reach a deal with Max Starks they can franchise him at a cost of $8.45 million for 1 year or transition tag him for $7.74 million.  Not wanting to head into the season without an experienced LT the franchise tag is very likely if talks break down.    The second remote possibility would be Bryant McFadden.   The cost to franchise him is $9.96 million and the transition tag figure is $8.37.  Knowing that, neither tag is probable as the Steelers wouldn't pay McFadden nearly double what they pay Ike Taylor, especially with Gay and Townsend on the roster.            

Free Agency:

The Steelers are rarely ever players for the big names in free agency.  They prefer to sit back and add lesser name role players to the roster.  Recent additions of Ryan Clark, Justin Hartwig, Mewelde Moore, and Keyaron Fox all were worth more to the team than what their salaries would indicate.  Colbert has done a great job of adding these pieces to the puzzle.  This year a few big names are intriguing, although unlikely.  At OT Vernon Carey and Jordan Gross are on the market.  At OG/C Jason Brown is a player to watch.  With the Ravens trying to re-sign their top 3 LB’s, could Brown slip away?  If not could the Steelers drive up the price to retain him for the Ravens? Finally, what if the Steelers decided to break form and make a huge splash in FA.   We all know Tomlin has a passion for two things: pass rushers and shut down corners.  Would they make a run at Nnamdi Asomugha?  Imagine this defense with a  true shut down corner on it?   Enough pipe reaming, the best we will likely see will be a random special teamer or another over-looked player that will come in and make solid contributions.  Some possible players to keep in mind: 

Joey Galloway - WR.  He and Tomlin have history in tampa bay and galloway still has enough speed to take the top off the defense.  He would be a nice #3 WR

Chris Carr - KR/CB.  Carr led the league in kick return average and is a fair enough #4 CB.  

Mike Goff - OG.  Goff is an older , but solid OG.  He could step in and start and provide an immediate upgrade to Stapleton.

Possible Veteran Cuts: We saw Joey Porter unexpectedly get cut a few years ago.  Could it happen this year?  The most likely candidate would be Larry Foote as he is set to lose his starting job and could save over 2.5 million in cap space. Travis Kirschke is another aging player that could free up $2 million.   Kendall Simmons is a player who has a hefty contract and a growing injury history.  When he went down this year the drop-off in play was minimal.  He has a realistic shot at being a cap casualty.       

Impending Free Agents: One thing we have come to expect from the Steelers is that they will always make an effort to re-sign key players one year before their deal expires.  As it stands right now 2010 holds the biggest crop of FA's the Steelers have had in many years.

2010 UFA's DE: Brett Keisel - NT: Casey Hampton - RB:  Willie Parker - ILB: Larry Foote -  OLB: James Harrison - FS: Ty Carter & Ryan Clark - WR Hines Ward - C Justin Hartwig - CB Deshea Townsend -  TE: Heath Miller - K: Jeff Reed

2010 RFA's    CB: William Gay -  TE: Matt Spaeth - Dan Sepulveda  - OG: Darnell Stapleton

That is a scary list, with essentially 16 out of the 45 guys who dress for game days on a Super Bowl team.  The safe bet would be that the Steelers top priorities this year are to extend Miller and Harrison, and work out a cap friendly extension for Hines Ward to free up some cap room.  Carter, Clark, Foote, and Townsend will likely play out their deals and be gone as they are up in years and/or their replacements are already on the roster.  Hampton, Keisel, Hartwig, and Clark all could go either way depending on cap room and how this year’s draft falls.

Draft: First let’s take a look at the picks.  The Steelers have the standard 1 thru 7 that they get every year.  This year they will also get a 3rd round compensatory pick for Alan Faneca as well as a 7th rounder they got in the trade for Sean Mahan.  The exact formula used for determining compensatory picks isn’t public information, but most of the parameters are known.  In short take the amount of UFA’s lost and subtract qualifying UFA’s signed.  Teams are eligible for 1 pick for each player lost that wasn’t replaced. Salary, playing time, and awards are factored in to determine the level of compensation each team gets for their lost players.   Typically around 32 comp picks are added to the draft each year.    The Steelers lost Faneca, St Pierre, and Haggans.  They signed Moore and Fox.  Hartwig and Leftwich do not count as they were cut by their previous teams.   Faneca got the 2nd highest UFA deal, started every game, and landed in the Pro Bowl.  He will land the Steelers a pick at the end of the 3rd round,#98 overall.  The Pats should get #97 overall for losing Asante Samuel.  

Positions of Need in the Draft:    Smart teams draft for immediate needs and needs they foresee coming in the next year.  Here are the top 6 positions the Steelers will need to strengthen in the immediate future.  

1. Interior O-line: First off, the current players on the roster suck.  Simmons has been mediocre and is coming off a major injury.  Stapleton in a band-aide on a bullet wound.  Kemoeatu is an UFA.  Hartwig is solid, but older and has had some injuries.  The team could use a Guard and future Center in this draft, if not 3 new players.

2. Corner Back:  Depending on Bryant McFadden coming back or not this will be a big need or a small need.  If McFadden comes back they need only to find  #4 CB to take over for Townsend in a year, if McFadden leaves they need a #2 CB and will need to use an early pick to get one.   

3. Defensive End: Keisel, Kirschke, and Eason are all UFA’s after 2009.  In addition they will all be over 30, as is Aaron Smith.  They can get away with the current cast of characters at DE for another year, but as we have seen it typically takes a year or two to develop a 3-4 DE so the Steelers need to start bringing in young guys now to eventually take over.    

4. Offensive Tackle: Like CB, free agency will determine how big a need this is.  If Starks leaves it will be the top need.  If Starks and Colon both come back as I expect a 3rd OT needs to be added to the mix to compete with Colon for the starting RT job.

5.  Wide Receiver:   It seems like this team is chasing receivers every year, but they currently only have 2 on the roster that have started a game and only 3 that are NFL capable.  Ward is nearing the end of the road and Sweed is still a question mark.  If Washington leaves the team needs to find a player that can play significant minutes as a rookie.  A return man is also a big need. 

6. Free Safety:    Ryan Clark is an UFA next year, and while he was a man possessed this year, could his internal injuries become an issue again?  Anthony Smith has fallen out of favor with the team and he and Ty Carter will be UFA’s next year.   As another year passes this team takes on more and more of the look of a Mike Tomlin team. Only three players remain on the roster that weren't brought in by Kevin Colbert (Ward, Townsend, Aaron Smith).  This isn't an offseason where the Steelers have a lot of major UFA's, but next you absolutely will be.  They need to do a good job manipulating the cap and maximizing their dollars now to help lessen the blow that is coming next year.  That said, this team is in outstanding shape for this offseason and has a great chance to make a deep run again next year.