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SB XLIII Proves Roethlisberger and Warner Belong Among The Elite NFL QB's
Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger are among the elite QB's in the NFL. Inside is the definitive proof.
Whether you realized it or not, you just witnessed two future HOF QB’s duels in Tampa last weekend. Both Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger have been somewhat under-rated by the general media throughout their careers, even though both have made multiple Super Bowl appearances and are among the highest rated QB’s in NFL history. Here is a case as to why each player belongs in the short list of elite quarterbacks in the game, both now, and historically.
Playoff Showings:
First off, playoff performances often separate the good, from the truly great players, especially at the QB position. The regular season is important, but we all know the postseason is where true legends of the game are made. The historically great QB’s in NFL history have made multiple SB appearances with few exceptions. (See: Montana, Elway, Bradshaw, Staubach, Favre, Kelly, Unitas, Starr, etc...) In an era where the media judges QB play more off of a fantasy football stat sheets than what they do on the field, let's take a hard-hitting, number crunching analysis of which active QB's actually get the job done when it counts the most. In the playoffs!
Top performing active playoff QB’s (minimum 5 starts)
1. Kurt Warner 8-3
261 - 403 (64.8%) 3368 yards 26 TD - 13 INT 8.4 YPA 98.9 QB rating
2. Tom Brady 14 wins, 3 losses
372 - 595 (62.5%) 3954 yards 26 TD -12 INT 6.6 YPA 88.0 QB rating
3. Ben Roethlisberger - 8 wins, 2 losses
172 - 278 (61.9%) 2239 yards 15 TD - 12 INT 8.1 YPA 87.2 QB rating
4. Brett Favre 12 wins, 10 losses
438 - 721 (60.7) 5311 yards 39 TD - 28 INT 7.4 YPA 85.2 QB rating
5. Peyton Manning 7 wins, 8 losses
348 - 565 (61.6%) 4207 yards 22 TD - 17 INT 7.4 YPA 84.9 QB rating
6. Jake Delhomme 5-3
130 - 226 (57.5) 1847 yards 12 TD - 10 INT 8.2 YPA 83.3 QB rating
7. Donovan McNabb - 9 wins, 6 losses
322 - 540 (59.6) 3522 yards 23 TD - 16 INT 6.5 YPA 80.8 QB rating
8. Matt Hasslebeck 4-5
189 - 325 (58.2) 2211 yards 11 TD - 8 INT 6.8 YPA 79.9 QB rating
9. Philip Rivers - 3 wins, 3 losses
107 - 189 (56.6) 1522 yards 7 TD - 7 INT 8.1 YPA 79.7 QB rating
10. Eli Manning - 4 wins, 3 losses
113 - 193 (58.5) 1300 yards 8 TD - 7 INT 6.7 YPA 77.6 QB rating
11. Chad Pennington 2-4
132 - 216 (61.1) 1418 yards 8 TD - 8 INT 6.6 YPA 77.3 QB rating
12. Kerry Collins 3-4
141 - 241 (58.5) 1556 yards 12 TD -11 INT 6.5 YPA 75.3 QB rating
13. Jeff Garcia 2-4
126 - 217 (58.1%) 1357 yards 7 TD – 7 INT 6.3 YPA 73.8 QB Rating
Some take aways from the list:
QB’s with completion percentage over 61% = Roethlisberger, Brady, Warner, Pennington
*QB Rating over 86 = Roethlisberger, Brady, Warner
*YPA over 8.0 = Roethlisberger, Warner, Rivers, Delhomme
*Win % over 70 = Brady, Roethlisberger, Warner
*Multiple SB appearances = Brady, Warner, Roethlisberger, Favre
*8 or more wins = Brady, Favre, Warner, Roethlisberger, McNabb
The top 5 rated active NFL QB’s also happen to have won 8 SB titles in 13 appearances. The rest of the list is 1-4 in the big game. Only Roethlisberger and Warner appear on each key measurement listed above.
For a historical perspective here is a quick look at every HOF QB’s who played their careers in the “live ball era” of the 1980’s on:
John Elway 14 wins, 8 losses
355 - 650 (54.6) 4964 yards 27 TD - 21 INT 7.6 YPA 79.8 QB rating
Dan Marino - 8wins, 10 losses
385 - 687 (56.0%) 4510 yards 32 TD - 24 INT 6.6 YPA 77.1 QB rating
Jim Kelly 9 wins, 8 losses
322 - 545 (59.1%) 3863 yards 20 TD - 28 INT 7.1 YPA 71.7 QB rating
Joe Montana 16-7
463 - 732 (63.3%) 5772 yards 45 TD - 21 INT 7.9 YPA 96.2 QB rating
Warren Moon 3-7
259 - 403 (64.3%) 2834 yards 17 TD - 14 INT 7.0 YPA 84.5 QB rating
Steve Young 12-8
292 - 471 (62.0%) 3326 yards 20 TD - 13 INT 7.1 YPA 85.8 QB rating
Troy Aikman 11-5
320 - 502 3849 yards (63.7%) 24 TD – 17 INT 7.7 YPA 89.0 QB rating
Dan Fouts 3-4
159 - 286 (55.6%) 2125 yards 12 TD - 16 INT 7.4 YPA 70.0 QB rating
Only one QB’s from this list of greats that had better a playoff history than Warner or Roethlisberger were Joe Montana and Troy Aikman. Roethlisberger and Warner eclipse every other player on the list in QB rating, win%, and YPA.. Keep in mind this list includes 8 guys with a yellow Hall of Fame jacket hanging in their closets.
SB XLIII in perspective:
There were two major themes the media drove into our heads regarding the QB’s in SB XLIII. If Kurt Warner won would it cement his HOF status, and if Ben Roethlisberger won would he be mentioned as one of the top 3 QB’s in the NFL with Brady and Manning. Let’s take a closer look at each QB’s case:
The case for Kurt Warner’s HOF Induction:
Let me start by saying that even with the loss, Warner absolutely cemented his status as two things. First he is a HOF QB, and second he is one of the best post-season QB’s in NFL history. The first major bullet in Warner’s gun is the fact that in three SB appearances he put up the 3 top passing games ever in SB history. The fact that he also did it against a Steelers defense that statistically was the best the league has seen in a decade, one that had only allowed 300 total yards once in the previous 18 games is astounding. Warner’s is ascending to the rarified air of Joe Montana as a post season QB as far as stats and efficiencies go. No active QB can touch Kurt Warner’s ridiculous 98.9 post-season QB rating. Looking down the list of recent HOF QB’s only Joe Montana’s 96.2 compares. Sure Warner is 1-2 in SB games, however in each game he played against teams with a defense far superior to his own, and in each game it took a final minute drive by another great QB to beat his team. The mere fact that Kurt Warner carried two down in the dumps franchises to three title games is amazing and his post season performances absolutely cements his legacy as a HOF QB, even with the two loses next to his name.
The case for Ben Roethlisberger being elite:
We are led to believe there are two, and only two elite QB’s in the NFL today, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Let’s start with Brady vs. Ben. Believe it or not, Ben Roethlisberger’s first 5 NFL season compare favorably with what Tom Brady accomplished during his first 5 seasons. Let’s take a closer look:
Ben Roethlisberger, first 5 years:
14,974 yards 62.4 comp% 101 TD, 69 INT, 7.9 YPA, 89.4 QB Rating, 51 wins, 2 SB's
Tom Brady, first 5 years:
13925 yards, 61.5 comp%, 97 TD, 52 INT, 6.9 YPA, 87.4 QB Rating, 48 wins, 3 SB's
As you can see Roethlisberger bests Brady in wins, completion %, YPA, QB rating, and TD passes. After 5 years there was no doubt that Tom Brady was elite, at least that is what the media told us. Ben Roethlisberger is lucky to get mentioned as a top 5 QB by some, let alone elite. Now let’s wrap our heads around what each player did in the playoffs to win his first 2 Super Bowls. Here is a stat line from each playoff game for the two player’s first two runs to the big game.
Tom Brady
21 - 41 201 yards 1 TD 0 INT 4.9 YPA 51.2% 73.3 rating
22 - 37 237 yards 1 TD 1 INT 6.4 YPA 59.5% 76.1 rating
32 - 48 354 yards 3 TD 1 INT 7.4 YPA 66.7% 100.5 rating
32 - 52 312 yards 0 TD 1 INT 6.0 YPA 61.5% 70.4 rating
12 - 18 115 yards 0 TD 0 INT 6.4 YPA 66.7% 84.3 rating
16 - 27 145 yards 1 TD 0 INT 5.4 YPA 59.3% 86.2 rating
Totals: 227 YPG 6 TD 3 INT 6.1 YPA 60.5% 81.3 rating
Ben Roethlisberger
14 - 19 208 yards 3 TD 0 INT 10.9 YPA 73.7% 148.7 rating
14 - 24 197 yards 2 TD 1 INT 8.2 YPA 58.3% 95.3 rating
21 - 29 275 yards 2 TD 0 INT 9.5 YPA 72.4% 124.9 rating
9 - 21 123 yards 0 TD 2 INT 5.9 YPA 42.9% 22.6 rating
17 - 26 181 yards 1 TD 0 INT 7.0 YPA 65.4% 98.4 rating
16 - 33 255 yards 1 TD 0 INT 7.7 YPA 48.5% 84.8 rating
21 - 30 256 yards 1 TD 1 INT 8.5 YPA 70.0% 93.2 rating
Totals: 213 YPG 10 TD 4 INT 8.2 YPA 61.5% 96.6 rating
The conventional wisdom (i.e. what the media has told us) is that Roethlisberger was carried by a great defense and running game, while the infallible Tom Brady was the main factor behind the Patriots success. As we can see here Roethlisberger had more TD passes, a much better YPA, a better completions % and far superior QB rating on his two Super Bowl runs than Tom Brady had on his first two runs. In fact on his first run to a SB title at age 23 Roethlisberger threw more TD passes (7) than Tom Brady did in his first two runs to the SB combined (6). Roethlisberger had a whopping 5 out of 7 games with a QB rating over 93. We have heard time and time again “yeah but, Ben played awful in SBXL”. There is some truth to that, he did play like a 23 year old full of nerves in that game, but the three road games he won on the strength of his passing game often gets over-looked. Tom Brady was much the game manager on his first SB run, throwing 1 TD and 1 INT in three games combined, and he threw for less than 150 total yards in 2 of those 3 games. This is not to discredit Tom Brady as both players have built great legacies, but is more of an attempt to shine the light on the fact that Roethlisberger is at least Tom Brady’s equal at a similar point in his career, yet Big Ben has gotten 1/10th the credit by that Brady has received.
The other elite QB in the game, Peyton Manning, has had his noted struggles in playoffs. In his 9th year in the league Manning finally won a championship. In the playoffs that year the great Peyton Manning threw 3 TD’s and 7 INT’s. His QB ratings in the four games: 71, 39, 79, and 81. In his 2nd year Ben Roethlisberger won four road playoff games on the road to his first title. His QB ratings in those games: 149, 95, 125, 22. Roethlisberger was crucified nationally for playing poorly in the SB, yet Manning was widely praised for carrying his team to a SB win. Here are the career playoff stats for each:
Ben Roethlisberger - 8 wins, 2 losses (5 year career) 2 SB wins
172 - 278 (61.9%) 2239 yards 15 TD - 12 INT 8.1 YPA 87.2 QB rating
&
Peyton Manning 7 wins, 8 losses (11 year career) 1 SB win
348 - 565 (61.6%) 4207 yards 22 TD - 17 INT 7.4 YPA 84.9 QB rating
Final word on Roethlisberger:
Roethlisberger leads the NFL over the last 5 years in game winning 4th qtr drives (18), went an unprecedented 13-0 as a rookie starter, and has more wins (51) than any QB in history over his first 5 years in the NFL, 2 SB titles, a career YPA near 8.0, and a QB rating near 90. We just witnessed Ben Roethlisberger engineer the greatest drive in SB history. An 88 yard drive, backed up to his own 12 yard line facing a 1st and 20 with just over 2:00 remaining in the game. Big Ben accounted for all 88 yards. Tom Brady built his legend by driving his team into FG range to win the SB. Roethlisberger just one-upped him with a game winning drive that made Joe Montana jealous. We’ll see if the media finally recognizes Ben Roethlisberger as a QB on elite level of Brady and Manning, or if they continue to dismiss him as some sort of quirky “game manager” for another year. The historical player who is the best comparison for Ben Roethlisberger is John Elway, a player widely considered one of the 5 best to ever play the game. Here is how they stack up after 5 years in the NFL:
Ben Roethlisberger
14,974 yards 62.4 comp% 101 TD, 69 INT, 7.9 YPA, 89.4 QB Rating, 51 wins, 2 SB wins
John Elway
14,835 yards 54.1 comp% 85 TD, 77 INT, 6.8 YPA, 74.9 QB rating, 46 wins, 0 SB wins
Conclusion:
There are four elite quarterbacks in the NFL today; Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Kurt Warner. Both Warner and Roethlisberger deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Brady and Manning, and both are building a great case for Canton when their careers wind down. Their combined career 16-5 playoff records are no accident. These are two of the most clutch QB’s in the NFL as we witnessed both men led potential game winning touchdown drives in the Super Bowl this past Sunday in the late 4th quarter. Unfortunately for Warner, he was out-dueled for the 2nd time in his career by another elite QB at the end of a Super Bowl.