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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:37 pm 
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BethlehemSteel wrote:
Peter King on Herd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMTIQ4DF2ZA

Bradshaw on sunday and thoughts on the era difference (Props to Ben - says Ben is far from done, too good) first 6 min segment, tomlin segment in min 7
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1e23urXqP8





ya the TB piece was quite good.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:38 pm 
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they feel exactly how we feel about Marvin Lewis....uncanny

Quote:
No...
He should stay there as long as possible. I don't want any chance of them getting a better coach. He's perfect. He is one who gives them hope every year, but cannot finish the job. That makes PIT a perfect foe for the Pats.


http://patriotsfans.freeforums.net/thread/4336/tomlin


um, this guy is out to lunch
Quote:
He's viewed about as highly in Pgh as BB is here. Not a chance he's being fired...yeah!


this person gets it
Quote:
I said during the game he should be fired
His teams play down to the competition
He doesn't get them ready to play
Bradsha said he was a Cheerleader
Big Ben has ripped him , but hey he puts everyone under the bus

Our friends that moved from ESPN to FXsports1
Said it would be coz of his race , no white would be fired

Hmm - Coughlin - Giants 2SBs, Gruden Tampa Bay with 1 SB
and then Shottenhiemer 14-2

and Not fired
Hue Jackson 1-31
Marvin Lewis and his dysfunctional mess

Please - Am not trying to turn this into a political discussion
just an observation on what they said
And how things are put through anyone's
Politically Correct prism , which yields sub optimal results


And the winner, what we all know and accept now
Quote:
I hope they never fire his guy because it doesn't matter how much talent he has to work with, he'll always screw it up.


Quote:
Minority Steeler Owners' want him fired.

do you think he should be?




No. Every coach in the AFC is going to look worse than they actually are because of Belichick. At the end of the day Tomlin stacks up pretty well to the rest of the league in regular season and playoff wins since he has been coach. It's not like his QB has been the paragon of health either. It's true that his teams often lose games they shouldn't by playing down to their level of competition. It's also true that the Steelers have a pretty good front office so the cupboard is never empty, but I think people acting like if Tomlin was replaced that the Steelers would have a few more Lombardis are kidding themselves. He's not Belichick, but no one is. The guy has won double digit games in 4 consecutive seasons and Hue Jackson is still a head coach. The idea that his seat is hot is pretty silly imo even if I think Tomlin totally f'ed up the Jax game.


Quote:
All of your points are solid

I had questions about him after he stuck his foot to drop a K returner
He doesn't button up his player and get them focussed
And he leads that by example

Big Ben has tossed Tomlin under the bus about 7 times
Seems he lost his qb, if not a lot of the team
And what do I know? Just looks funny
But those minority owners are reacting to somethng

He took forever to get out of his zone with TB

Year in and year out there have been mostly the same teams going for the SB
And his record isn't any good with them

So keep him, win a lot but never the big game?

I will leave it at this
Patriot fans dont want him fired


Quote:
He's an awful coach. Absolutely terrible. He's nothing but a glorified cheerleader. He won 2 titles with cowhers players. He should've been fired years ago. But please Pittsburgh stay stupid and keep him. As long as he's the coach, we'll never have to worry about them beating us.
Quote

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:43 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
Thank you Swiss, exactly right.

Except that the decision he made was supported by the percentages, and he was crucified.

What you guys are ignoring is that most of the time you fail on an onside attempt, the offense still needs a 1st down to get into FG range. So you have the small chance of getting an onside recover, plus the chance of stopping them on a set of downs and getting the ball back, albeit with maybe 10-15 yds worse field position. This vs. kicking away with no chance to recover, getting a stop, and getting the ball back with 10-15 yds better FP.

I'll bet you the failed onside with touching penalty 5 yards past the kick line is about the worst-possible outcome you could even imagine... and very very unlikely–yet you guys are basing your probabilities on that outcome.


Yes, worst possible outcome, but I think you're underestimating the difference in Steelers FP had they kicked deep vs. onsides. With onsides, if not recovered, we might expect Jax to take possession no worse than 50 yd. line. Had Steelers kicked deep, Jax likely comes out no better than their own 25, quite possibly deeper than that.

I think the FP difference is at least 25 yards, and let's remember, Steelers would have been needing a touchdown to tie, not a field goal.

Tomlin fucked up the decision....that simple.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:44 pm 
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Gonzo wrote:
When is the last time steelers converted an onside kick ... per the site I posted not since 2009 at best. And with no penalty jax gets it at about the 45. Commentators said that day 57 was kickers range and wind at his back I believe. The kick he did make had ten yards to spare. not trusting the D to,stop,three runs was not as desperatel of a situation to require a very low probability move ... it's hyperbole.

One could argue that reversion to the mean would make it likely the Steelers will convert an onside sometime soon, just from sheer luck.

Besides, steelers got the same number of onside kick recoveries in that game as they did 3 and outs to force a punt.

There's no way Marrone is attempting a 54 or 55 yard FG in January with the game on the line. Kudos to him if he did, but that's a low percentage play. In fact, our chances might have been better to have onsided, missed recovering with an average result, and forced a 55 yard FG attempt than they would have to kicked off through the EZ, and forced a punt.

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:46 pm 
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="swissvale72"]
bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
Thank you Swiss, exactly right.

Except that the decision he made was supported by the percentages, and he was crucified.

What you guys are ignoring is that most of the time you fail on an onside attempt, the offense still needs a 1st down to get into FG range. So you have the small chance of getting an onside recover, plus the chance of stopping them on a set of downs and getting the ball back, albeit with maybe 10-15 yds worse field position. This vs. kicking away with no chance to recover, getting a stop, and getting the ball back with 10-15 yds better FP.

I'll bet you the failed onside with touching penalty 5 yards past the kick line is about the worst-possible outcome you could even imagine... and very very unlikely–yet you guys are basing your probabilities on that outcome.


Yes, worst possible outcome, but I think you're underestimating the difference in Steelers FP had they kicked deep vs. onsides. With onsides, if not recovered, we might expect Jax to take possession no worse than 50 yd. line. Had Steelers kicked deep, Jax likely comes out no better than their own 25, quite possibly deeper than that.

I think the FP difference is at least 25 yards, and let's remember, Steelers would have been needing a touchdown to tie, not a field goal.

Tomlin fucked up the decision AGAIN....that simple.[/quote]


Fixed it for you Swiss.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:48 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Gonzo wrote:
When is the last time steelers converted an onside kick ... per the site I posted not since 2009 at best. And with no penalty jax gets it at about the 45. Commentators said that day 57 was kickers range and wind at his back I believe. The kick he did make had ten yards to spare. not trusting the D to,stop,three runs was not as desperatel of a situation to require a very low probability move ... it's hyperbole.

One could argue that reversion to the mean would make it likely the Steelers will convert an onside sometime soon, just from sheer luck.

Besides, steelers got the same number of onside kick recoveries in that game as they did 3 and outs to force a punt.

There's no way Marrone is attempting a 54 or 55 yard FG in January with the game on the line. Kudos to him if he did, but that's a low percentage play. In fact, our chances might have been better to have onsided, missed recovering with an average result, and forced a 55 yard FG attempt than they would have to kicked off through the EZ, and forced a punt.


Not a game of rolling dice though, B2B.....reversion to mean doesn't matter. Every event is unique unto itself with execution being a prime variable.

Agreed....no way Marrone attempts a 55 yard FG, so let's not even pretend that Steelers fuck up the onsides and come out with better field position than if they had kicked deep.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:51 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Gonzo wrote:
When is the last time steelers converted an onside kick ... per the site I posted not since 2009 at best. And with no penalty jax gets it at about the 45. Commentators said that day 57 was kickers range and wind at his back I believe. The kick he did make had ten yards to spare. not trusting the D to,stop,three runs was not as desperatel of a situation to require a very low probability move ... it's hyperbole.

One could argue that reversion to the mean would make it likely the Steelers will convert an onside sometime soon, just from sheer luck.

Besides, steelers got the same number of onside kick recoveries in that game as they did 3 and outs to force a punt.

There's no way Marrone is attempting a 54 or 55 yard FG in January with the game on the line. Kudos to him if he did, but that's a low percentage play. In fact, our chances might have been better to have onsided, missed recovering with an average result, and forced a 55 yard FG attempt than they would have to kicked off through the EZ, and forced a punt.




I think theres a really good chance Jax goes ultra simple conservative mode deep in their own end thus increasing our chances of getting that much needed 3 and out, not to mention its 3 attempts at trying to create a turnover, no chance of an onsides penalty as well, throw all that into the computer model as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:51 pm 
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In this thread the discussion about playing the odds only works when you state what your philosophy is and stick to it. If MT would make a declaration that I am using statistical models and probability charts at all times than I would be fine with the onsides kick.

However, there has been no declaration of philosophy, which is a mistake in the communication and optics game, which MT prides himself with. There is just going by his gut, shifting philosophies, and flavors of the month.

I work in supply chain and deal deeply with safety stock, statistics, risk periods everyday on all inventory. You can’t turn the software on and off when you feel like it and then bitch and moan when you have service issues and out of stocks. You have to buy into the philosophy and software and use 100% of the time. It is the same with his and his coordinators decision making skills. They have no philosophy, no principles, and no rules on which to communicate internally to the team or externally to the press and fans. This is a recipe for what transpired in the Jax playoff game of 2018!


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:02 am 
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GreekSteel wrote:
Yes, worst possible outcome, but I think you're underestimating the difference in Steelers FP had they kicked deep vs. onsides. With onsides, if not recovered, we might expect Jax to take possession no worse than 50 yd. line. Had Steelers kicked deep, Jax likely comes out no better than their own 25, quite possibly deeper than that.

I think the FP difference is at least 25 yards, and let's remember, Steelers would have been needing a touchdown to tie, not a field goal.

Tomlin fucked up the decision AGAIN....that simple.



Fixed it for you Swiss.[/quote]
except that you can't easily kick it to the 1 or 2-- you're going to pooch from the the 40 and it's probably going to be fair caught at the 10 or so... might even go in for a touchback. It isn't the FP difference before the punt that matters, it's the FP after the punt.

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:03 am 
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LakecrestSteeler wrote:
In this thread the discussion about playing the odds only works when you state what your philosophy is and stick to it. If MT would make a declaration that I am using statistical models and probability charts at all times than I would be fine with the onsides kick.

However, there has been no declaration of philosophy, which is a mistake in the communication and optics game, which MT prides himself with. There is just going by his gut, shifting philosophies, and flavors of the month.

I work in supply chain and deal deeply with safety stock, statistics, risk periods everyday on all inventory. You can’t turn the software on and off when you feel like it and then bitch and moan when you have service issues and out of stocks. You have to buy into the philosophy and software and use 100% of the time. It is the same with his and his coordinators decision making skills. They have no philosophy, no principles, and no rules on which to communicate internally to the team or externally to the press and fans. This is a recipe for what transpired in the Jax playoff game of 2018!


Mike Tomlin doesn't use software, he is just soft!!

He has no idea of transient safety stocks, although Butler may at times. Tomlin and crew have no real perceived planning time fence, it's just a swag :lol: 8-)

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:04 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
Yes, worst possible outcome, but I think you're underestimating the difference in Steelers FP had they kicked deep vs. onsides. With onsides, if not recovered, we might expect Jax to take possession no worse than 50 yd. line. Had Steelers kicked deep, Jax likely comes out no better than their own 25, quite possibly deeper than that.

I think the FP difference is at least 25 yards, and let's remember, Steelers would have been needing a touchdown to tie, not a field goal.

Tomlin fucked up the decision AGAIN....that simple.



Fixed it for you Swiss.

except that you can't easily kick it to the 1 or 2-- you're going to pooch from the the 40 and it's probably going to be fair caught at the 10 or so... might even go in for a touchback. It isn't the FP difference before the punt that matters, it's the FP after the punt.[/quote]



We're talking about a KO right?


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:12 am 
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GreekSteel wrote:
We're talking about a KO right?

No, punt.

If you kick it away to them, most likely outcome is you kick it into the EZ and they get it at the 25. If they advance 9 yards, they punt from the 34.

If you onside, most of the time, receiving teams recover the ball at around the 46 or 47 yard line of the kicking team. Let's say 46. 9 yards advances it to the 37, leaving a 54-yard FG attempt. If they punt from the 37, they're probably going to have a hard time getting a better result than the 10. If they punt from their own 34, they can kick it away and expect a FC from the steelers about 44 yards downfield, meaning the Steelers get it at about the 22. That's a 12 yard difference in FP.

Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:18 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
We're talking about a KO right?

No, punt.

If you kick it away to them, most likely outcome is you kick it into the EZ and they get it at the 25. If they advance 9 yards, they punt from the 34.

If you onside, most of the time, receiving teams recover the ball at around the 46 or 47 yard line of the kicking team. Let's say 46. 9 yards advances it to the 37, leaving a 54-yard FG attempt. If they punt from the 37, they're probably going to have a hard time getting a better result than the 10. If they punt from their own 34, they can kick it away and expect a FC from the steelers about 44 yards downfield, meaning the Steelers get it at about the 22. That's a 12 yard difference in FP.

Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.




you re way over thinking it and i suspect just coming to Tomlins defense no matter what..i just want the fkn ball back with a decent amt of time for Ben and that offense to score again, im really not as concerned at that point about prime field position, sure obviously i want to be as close as possible but my MAIN concern is getting the ball back...a telegrahed onside kick was the wrong decision.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:21 am 
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GreekSteel wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
We're talking about a KO right?

No, punt.

If you kick it away to them, most likely outcome is you kick it into the EZ and they get it at the 25. If they advance 9 yards, they punt from the 34.

If you onside, most of the time, receiving teams recover the ball at around the 46 or 47 yard line of the kicking team. Let's say 46. 9 yards advances it to the 37, leaving a 54-yard FG attempt. If they punt from the 37, they're probably going to have a hard time getting a better result than the 10. If they punt from their own 34, they can kick it away and expect a FC from the steelers about 44 yards downfield, meaning the Steelers get it at about the 22. That's a 12 yard difference in FP.

Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.




you re way over thinking it and i suspect just coming to Tomlins defense no matter what..i just want the fkn ball back with a decent amt of time for Ben and that offense to score again, im really not as concerned at that point about prime field position, sure obviously i want to be as close as possible but my MAIN concern is getting the ball back...a telegrahed onside kick was the wrong decision.


Don’t forget the hot potatoe game. You want the ball back with about 1:30. Anything more and you will leave too much time on the clock. Time management more important than the FP at the end of the game.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:29 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
Thank you Swiss, exactly right.

Except that the decision he made was supported by the percentages, and he was crucified.


It's funny....everyone who criticizes Tomlin for "going with his gut" is crucifying him for actually playing the odds because - get this - IN THEIR GUT that was the wrong percentage play!

You can't make this shit up!

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:09 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
It's funny....everyone who criticizes Tomlin for "going with his gut" is crucifying him for actually playing the odds because - get this - IN THEIR GUT that was the wrong percentage play!

You can't make this shit up!


Tomlin could bludgeon a sackful of newborn puppies on the 50 yard line of Heinz Field with a capacity crowd watching and some people would still defend him.
It's absurd at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:29 am 
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Kodiak wrote:

It's funny....everyone who criticizes Tomlin for "going with his gut" is crucifying him for actually playing the odds because - get this - IN THEIR GUT that was the wrong percentage play!

You can't make this shit up!



"going with your gut" ..

translation: "not doing your fucking homework"


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:20 am 
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the-other-burg wrote:
Kodiak wrote:

It's funny....everyone who criticizes Tomlin for "going with his gut" is crucifying him for actually playing the odds because - get this - IN THEIR GUT that was the wrong percentage play!

You can't make this shit up!



"going with your gut" ..

translation: "not doing your fucking homework"


Or, if you prefer:

"going with your gut"

translates to: "fits my argument and give me an excuse"


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:40 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.


I think it's a real stretch to say that giving the Jags the realistic option to have 4 chances to make the 1st down instead of 3 was a benefit of the onsides decision. Rather, I'd say that's another reason why the onsides decision was the wrong decision. The Steelers were more likely to get the ball back at their 36 if they had kicked it deep and forced a punt than some scenario where they stopped the Jags 4 times.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:06 am 
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Hmmmmm......Peter King is defending Tomlin and local PPG writers are not. Hmmmm.......

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:11 am 
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At the very least their talk about Tomlin but sure his job is safe


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:13 am 
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W&M_Steeler wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.


I think it's a real stretch to say that giving the Jags the realistic option to have 4 chances to make the 1st down instead of 3 was a benefit of the onsides decision. Rather, I'd say that's another reason why the onsides decision was the wrong decision. The Steelers were more likely to get the ball back at their 36 if they had kicked it deep and forced a punt than some scenario where they stopped the Jags 4 times.

agree..jags would play far more conservative deep in their end then getting ball near midfield. their main job being no turnovers and making us burn timeouts. I hope.. at mid field they can be more daring.


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