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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:04 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
Yes, worst possible outcome, but I think you're underestimating the difference in Steelers FP had they kicked deep vs. onsides. With onsides, if not recovered, we might expect Jax to take possession no worse than 50 yd. line. Had Steelers kicked deep, Jax likely comes out no better than their own 25, quite possibly deeper than that.

I think the FP difference is at least 25 yards, and let's remember, Steelers would have been needing a touchdown to tie, not a field goal.

Tomlin fucked up the decision AGAIN....that simple.



Fixed it for you Swiss.

except that you can't easily kick it to the 1 or 2-- you're going to pooch from the the 40 and it's probably going to be fair caught at the 10 or so... might even go in for a touchback. It isn't the FP difference before the punt that matters, it's the FP after the punt.[/quote]



We're talking about a KO right?


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:12 am 
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GreekSteel wrote:
We're talking about a KO right?

No, punt.

If you kick it away to them, most likely outcome is you kick it into the EZ and they get it at the 25. If they advance 9 yards, they punt from the 34.

If you onside, most of the time, receiving teams recover the ball at around the 46 or 47 yard line of the kicking team. Let's say 46. 9 yards advances it to the 37, leaving a 54-yard FG attempt. If they punt from the 37, they're probably going to have a hard time getting a better result than the 10. If they punt from their own 34, they can kick it away and expect a FC from the steelers about 44 yards downfield, meaning the Steelers get it at about the 22. That's a 12 yard difference in FP.

Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:18 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
We're talking about a KO right?

No, punt.

If you kick it away to them, most likely outcome is you kick it into the EZ and they get it at the 25. If they advance 9 yards, they punt from the 34.

If you onside, most of the time, receiving teams recover the ball at around the 46 or 47 yard line of the kicking team. Let's say 46. 9 yards advances it to the 37, leaving a 54-yard FG attempt. If they punt from the 37, they're probably going to have a hard time getting a better result than the 10. If they punt from their own 34, they can kick it away and expect a FC from the steelers about 44 yards downfield, meaning the Steelers get it at about the 22. That's a 12 yard difference in FP.

Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.




you re way over thinking it and i suspect just coming to Tomlins defense no matter what..i just want the fkn ball back with a decent amt of time for Ben and that offense to score again, im really not as concerned at that point about prime field position, sure obviously i want to be as close as possible but my MAIN concern is getting the ball back...a telegrahed onside kick was the wrong decision.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:21 am 
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GreekSteel wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
We're talking about a KO right?

No, punt.

If you kick it away to them, most likely outcome is you kick it into the EZ and they get it at the 25. If they advance 9 yards, they punt from the 34.

If you onside, most of the time, receiving teams recover the ball at around the 46 or 47 yard line of the kicking team. Let's say 46. 9 yards advances it to the 37, leaving a 54-yard FG attempt. If they punt from the 37, they're probably going to have a hard time getting a better result than the 10. If they punt from their own 34, they can kick it away and expect a FC from the steelers about 44 yards downfield, meaning the Steelers get it at about the 22. That's a 12 yard difference in FP.

Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.




you re way over thinking it and i suspect just coming to Tomlins defense no matter what..i just want the fkn ball back with a decent amt of time for Ben and that offense to score again, im really not as concerned at that point about prime field position, sure obviously i want to be as close as possible but my MAIN concern is getting the ball back...a telegrahed onside kick was the wrong decision.


Don’t forget the hot potatoe game. You want the ball back with about 1:30. Anything more and you will leave too much time on the clock. Time management more important than the FP at the end of the game.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:29 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
GreekSteel wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
Thank you Swiss, exactly right.

Except that the decision he made was supported by the percentages, and he was crucified.


It's funny....everyone who criticizes Tomlin for "going with his gut" is crucifying him for actually playing the odds because - get this - IN THEIR GUT that was the wrong percentage play!

You can't make this shit up!

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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:09 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
It's funny....everyone who criticizes Tomlin for "going with his gut" is crucifying him for actually playing the odds because - get this - IN THEIR GUT that was the wrong percentage play!

You can't make this shit up!


Tomlin could bludgeon a sackful of newborn puppies on the 50 yard line of Heinz Field with a capacity crowd watching and some people would still defend him.
It's absurd at this point.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:29 am 
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Kodiak wrote:

It's funny....everyone who criticizes Tomlin for "going with his gut" is crucifying him for actually playing the odds because - get this - IN THEIR GUT that was the wrong percentage play!

You can't make this shit up!



"going with your gut" ..

translation: "not doing your fucking homework"


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:20 am 
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the-other-burg wrote:
Kodiak wrote:

It's funny....everyone who criticizes Tomlin for "going with his gut" is crucifying him for actually playing the odds because - get this - IN THEIR GUT that was the wrong percentage play!

You can't make this shit up!



"going with your gut" ..

translation: "not doing your fucking homework"


Or, if you prefer:

"going with your gut"

translates to: "fits my argument and give me an excuse"


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:40 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Another benefit is that the Jags might have been tempted to go for it on 4th and short––I would have–– and the Steelers could have had a chance to get better FP, or lose the game right there.


I think it's a real stretch to say that giving the Jags the realistic option to have 4 chances to make the 1st down instead of 3 was a benefit of the onsides decision. Rather, I'd say that's another reason why the onsides decision was the wrong decision. The Steelers were more likely to get the ball back at their 36 if they had kicked it deep and forced a punt than some scenario where they stopped the Jags 4 times.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomlin end of season presser
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:06 am 
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Hmmmmm......Peter King is defending Tomlin and local PPG writers are not. Hmmmm.......

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