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 Post subject: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:58 pm 
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I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:02 pm 
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Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


I think the 20% success rate that you cite is false.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:09 pm 
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Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seal the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


This was my thinking initially. I’ve since come over to the other side, but in my opinion it’s still a debatable question. I was pretty much out of my mind at this point in the game, I’ll admit. The reason why the onside kick backfired as badly as it did had to do with the execution. It really looked like they hadn’t practiced it at all. For whatever reason the Steelers seem historically inept at this play (I remember the one way back in the Super Bowl loss to the Cowboys as an exception). Anyway, we’ll never know if the Jaguars would have tried a 54 yard kick. They have an excellent kicker, but my sense is they would have pooch punted at that point. I will say that when teams expect the onside kick you can often pin them quite deep. This kick too requires a good deal of proper execution.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:10 pm 
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Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


20% success seems high to me.

But, the decision wasn’t hindsight for me. I was yelling “just kick it deep” at my television before they lined up in the hopes someone on the sideline would hear me.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:11 pm 
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1 in 5 are successful? That can’t be.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:18 pm 
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no chance 1 in 5 are successful. Maybe 1 in 10


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:18 pm 
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One of the worst calls by our head coach. He lived in fears and not giving the team the best chance to win


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:36 pm 
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Will-the-Shake wrote:
Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seal the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


This was my thinking initially. I’ve since come over to the other side, but in my opinion it’s still a debatable question. I was pretty much out of my mind at this point in the game, I’ll admit. The reason why the onside kick backfired as badly as it did had to do with the execution. It really looked like they hadn’t practiced it at all. For whatever reason the Steelers seem historically inept at this play (I remember the one way back in the Super Bowl loss to the Cowboys as an exception). Anyway, we’ll never know if the Jaguars would have tried a 54 yard kick. They have an excellent kicker, but my sense is they would have pooch punted at that point. I will say that when teams expect the onside kick you can often pin them quite deep. This kick too requires a good deal of proper execution.


When I saw them lining up for an onside kick, I had the fleeting hope that they'd kick it deep from an onside formation in hopes of catching the Jags off guard pinning them inside the 20. I don't know whether the Jags would have attempted a 54-yard field goal, but they might have attempted to convert a 4th and short as they would have been around the Steelers 35 yard line at the time. Just another option that the onsides decision made possible for the Jags.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:41 pm 
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I did not mind the onside kick, the execution of it was horrible however. Ideally if the kick is executed properly the receiving team gets the ball between to 45-50 yard line which means they have to get at least one first down to be in FG range. In this case a first down ends the game no matter where they start the drive, so why not onside kick it and give yourself a 10-20% of getting the ball back versus giving up field position if you do get a stop. Poor execution by our pro bowl kicker killed any chances because the illegal touch happened at the 40, then the 5 yard penalty was enforced from that spot giving Jville the ball at the 35. Had the ball travelled 10 yds Jville would have punted instead of trying a 54 yd FG.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:56 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


I think the 20% success rate that you cite is false.


If you Google it almost every source says around 20%... Imagine the Steelers practicing this 5 times and you dont think the kicking team recovers one with the way a football bounces? The problem is we see one at a time and they are so rare that they seem impossible.... let alone practice 100 and the kicking team cant recover 20 of them? I kindly disagree.


Last edited by Flanker on Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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