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 Post subject: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 8:58 pm 
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I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:02 pm 
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Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


I think the 20% success rate that you cite is false.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:09 pm 
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Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seal the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


This was my thinking initially. I’ve since come over to the other side, but in my opinion it’s still a debatable question. I was pretty much out of my mind at this point in the game, I’ll admit. The reason why the onside kick backfired as badly as it did had to do with the execution. It really looked like they hadn’t practiced it at all. For whatever reason the Steelers seem historically inept at this play (I remember the one way back in the Super Bowl loss to the Cowboys as an exception). Anyway, we’ll never know if the Jaguars would have tried a 54 yard kick. They have an excellent kicker, but my sense is they would have pooch punted at that point. I will say that when teams expect the onside kick you can often pin them quite deep. This kick too requires a good deal of proper execution.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:10 pm 
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Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


20% success seems high to me.

But, the decision wasn’t hindsight for me. I was yelling “just kick it deep” at my television before they lined up in the hopes someone on the sideline would hear me.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:11 pm 
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1 in 5 are successful? That can’t be.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:18 pm 
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no chance 1 in 5 are successful. Maybe 1 in 10


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:18 pm 
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One of the worst calls by our head coach. He lived in fears and not giving the team the best chance to win


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:36 pm 
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Will-the-Shake wrote:
Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seal the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


This was my thinking initially. I’ve since come over to the other side, but in my opinion it’s still a debatable question. I was pretty much out of my mind at this point in the game, I’ll admit. The reason why the onside kick backfired as badly as it did had to do with the execution. It really looked like they hadn’t practiced it at all. For whatever reason the Steelers seem historically inept at this play (I remember the one way back in the Super Bowl loss to the Cowboys as an exception). Anyway, we’ll never know if the Jaguars would have tried a 54 yard kick. They have an excellent kicker, but my sense is they would have pooch punted at that point. I will say that when teams expect the onside kick you can often pin them quite deep. This kick too requires a good deal of proper execution.


When I saw them lining up for an onside kick, I had the fleeting hope that they'd kick it deep from an onside formation in hopes of catching the Jags off guard pinning them inside the 20. I don't know whether the Jags would have attempted a 54-yard field goal, but they might have attempted to convert a 4th and short as they would have been around the Steelers 35 yard line at the time. Just another option that the onsides decision made possible for the Jags.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:41 pm 
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I did not mind the onside kick, the execution of it was horrible however. Ideally if the kick is executed properly the receiving team gets the ball between to 45-50 yard line which means they have to get at least one first down to be in FG range. In this case a first down ends the game no matter where they start the drive, so why not onside kick it and give yourself a 10-20% of getting the ball back versus giving up field position if you do get a stop. Poor execution by our pro bowl kicker killed any chances because the illegal touch happened at the 40, then the 5 yard penalty was enforced from that spot giving Jville the ball at the 35. Had the ball travelled 10 yds Jville would have punted instead of trying a 54 yd FG.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:56 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


I think the 20% success rate that you cite is false.


If you Google it almost every source says around 20%... Imagine the Steelers practicing this 5 times and you dont think the kicking team recovers one with the way a football bounces? The problem is we see one at a time and they are so rare that they seem impossible.... let alone practice 100 and the kicking team cant recover 20 of them? I kindly disagree.


Last edited by Flanker on Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 9:58 pm 
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And that punt would have pinned us deep. Giving us further to go on what was already going to be limited time.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:02 pm 
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http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... side-kick/

Utter horseshit ... like talking to Anton Brooks or Herm Edwards


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:04 pm 
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Flanker wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
I think the 20% success rate that you cite is false.

If you Google it almost every source says around 20%... Imagine the Steelers practicing this 5 times and you dont think the kicking team recovers one with the way a football bounces? The problem is we see one at a time and they are so rare that they seem impossible.


According to PFT, teams were 5/40 (12.5% chance) with onsides attempts this season: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/20 ... side-kick/

No word on whether this is limited to only obvious onsides attempts, or if it includes surprise onsides (which have higher success rates).


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:04 pm 
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Just a bad decision, and it helped cost us the game.

The worst decision of all was not kicking the field goal after the intentional grounding penalty.

I mean, that was indefensibly bad. Gave us no chance at all.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:11 pm 
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Gonzo wrote:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/01/16/mike-tomlin-defends-onside-kick/

Utter horseshit ... like talking to Anton Brooks or Herm Edwards


Quote:
I don’t fear failure. I’m going to do what’s required to pursue victory, even if it comes across as unconventional.


Oh really, Mr. Tomlin?

Then why didn’t you kick the FG at :47, or :32 at the least, so you could have one more chance, albeit small, of pursuing victory?

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:15 pm 
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Calling it unconventional and then spouting line after line of childish rhetoric is pure spin


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:22 pm 
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Sorry Jeems but kicking a FG on 1st and goal from the 5 with 47 seconds left would have been dumb as shit...thats when you take 3 shots in the end zone, unfortunately Ben got pressure on 1st down and threw the ball in the ground getting an intentionally grounding penalty which moved the ball to the 15 and required a 10 second runoff, leaving 22 seconds left. Ben held the ball too long on the first down play, should have thrown it away quicky if nothing was open. But when you need a FG and TD to tie and you have it 1st and goal from the 5 no sane football person would ever kick the FG at that point, you are too close to getting 7.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:22 pm 
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This says since 2009 steelers are 0-11 on onsides
I am including two from this year

https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stat ... cess/2009/


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:33 pm 
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The decision to onsides kick was indefensible. The 12.5% success rate for the season ignores the fact that Boswell has never executed the kick well. So IMO the chances of recovery are less than that.

And no way Jax would have done anything else than run the ball on all 3 plays after they got the ball. If the concern was the defense wasn’t going to be able to stop the vaunted Jacksonville offense on 3 plays you know they are going to run then what exactly was the plan going to be next week against the Pats? If you have such low confidence in your defense that you need to try an onsides kick to get the ball back after a score when there is an option to kick it deep then try a surprise onsides earlier in the 4th quarter after one of your scores when the success rate is much higher with the opposition not expecting it.

The onsides kick is the special team equivalent of a Hail Mary. Only to be used as a last resort.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:36 pm 
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Here’s my thinking on kicking it deep vs onside...

—Onside kick gives you 10-20% chance of getting the ball near midfield with 2:08 left plus 2 timeouts, plenty of time to get go ahead score. If the kick is properly executed and recovered by Jville they should get the ball between the 45-50 yard line, meaning they have to make at least 1 first down to be in FG range, well if they make a first down where they are field position wise is a moot point because a first down is followed by victory formation. Now say we get a 3 and out and the gain 8-9 yards, this puts them between the 38-43 yard line, which would be a 55+ FG in frigid Heinz, no coach other than maybe Harbaugh with Tucker tries that kick, so the punt with about 1:50 left on the clock. Worst case scenario is a fair catch between the 5-10 yard line, best case scenario is a touchback.

—Kick it deep....couple of options here, you can try to kick it into a voided area around the 30 yard line and hope to recover (this is the option I would have personally preferred). If Jville gets the ball around own 35 in the scenario and PS force a 3 and out they are punting from around the 40-45 yard line which usually results in a fair catch around the 10 which nets the same result field position wise as an onside kick would. Other option would be to kick it deep but not in the endzone hoping to pin Jville inside their 15. Once again get a 3 and out and they are punting from their 20-23 yard line. Say an average 45 yard punt with a fair catch means PS would start a drive around their 35 yard line, thus gaining 25 yards from worst case scenario result from onside kick. If they boom a punt field position could be inside own 30. So basically you are worst case scenario giving up 25 yards in field position with plenty of time on the clock versus getting a chance to get the ball without having to force a 3 and out. With our defense and the way they were playing I would onside it or pooch it, either way trying to recover the ball, problem is our fucking kicker kicked the ball 4 yards at a horrible angle, which fucked everything.


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