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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 10:56 pm 
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So in 14 years of NFL play and 4 years of college Ben has never had a coach teach him game management?


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:05 pm 
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StillerDownSouth wrote:
So in 14 years of NFL play and 4 years of college Ben has never had a coach teach him game management?


Had they called a QB sneak this wouldn’t even be a topic.
Had they kicked it deep instead of the onsides kick this wouldn’t be a topic.
Had Haley had Bell in the backfield on the opening series....
Had Eli Rogers fielded that first punt....
Had they called a QB sneak....


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:10 pm 
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Then don’t forget that had we recovered the onsides kick, and scored a touchdown that close, there would have been too much god damn time left with Tomlin’s untrustworthy defense. We probably would have scored the touchdown to tie it up with 30 seconds left in all probability. His argument is so full of holes. He flat out made one of the stupidest NFL coaching decisions ever.


I’ve made mention of this as well. Had everything worked out as planned we are still faced with putting our D back on the field.

Jville had 4 time outs at there disposal. So it’s not like we could have bled clock while trying to tie it.

I will concede that IF everything works out perfectly it would have been better to kick after tieing it because that forces them pretty much intopass only mode as they would have already burned their TOs trying to stop us.

But then, we’ve seen that movie before too

Tomlin & Lebeau “smashing the run” in freaking modified OT where they came out of a TV time out with literally ALL 11 defenders within 5 yards of the LOS. Oh noooo. Tebow might break if a 15 yarder.

Just face it people. Tomlin is NOT a smart tactician. He has other qualities but dude can not be in charge of shit in the heat of the moment. It is hose times that reveal his true character and unfortunately for us that character is that of a mental midget.

At the least we can be thankful he pulled one Super Bowl. Thanks no doubt to an amazing throw from Ben and an even better catch by Holmes.

They don’t connect we are very likely adding “largest 4th quarter collapse in SB history” to this fucking idiots resume.

Not sure if the wet fart the Falcons shat out last year would have surpassed it or not. Would have been biggest collapse up to that point regardless


Last edited by 955876 on Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:12 pm 
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StillerDownSouth wrote:
What are you talking about Gonzo, there was 1 second on the clock on final kick off, clock starts once ball is touched and had we recovered we could’t advance it. Only way PS could have scored was if they kicked it and the ball somehow made it to the endzone with us recovering it.


The kicking team can score off a fumble. The could pop up the kick and hope the catch is muffed
Kick it hard at someone and hope the are fool enough to not fair catch and try to run and fumble


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:22 pm 
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955876 wrote:
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Then don’t forget that had we recovered the onsides kick, and scored a touchdown that close, there would have been too much god damn time left with Tomlin’s untrustworthy defense. We probably would have scored the touchdown to tie it up with 30 seconds left in all probability. His argument is so full of holes. He flat out made one of the stupidest NFL coaching decisions ever.


I’ve made mention of this as well. Had everything worked out as planned we are still faced with putting our D back on the field.

Jville had 4 time outs at there disposal. So it’s not like we could have bled clock while trying to tie it.

I will concede that IF everything works out perfectly it would have been better to kick after tieing it because that forces them pretty much intopass only mode as they would have already burned their TOs trying to stop us.

But then, we’ve seen that movie before too

Tomlin & Lebeau “smashing the run” in freaking modified OT where they came out of a TV time out with literally ALL 11 defenders within 5 yards of the LOS. Oh noooo. Tebow might break if a 15 yarder.

Just face it people. Tomlin is NOT a smart tactician. He has other qualities but dude can not be in charge of shit in the heat of the moment. It is hose times that reveal his true character and unfortunately for us that character is that of a mental midget.

At the least we can be thankful he pulled one Super Bowl. Thanks no doubt to an amazing throw from Ben and an even better catch by Holmes.

They don’t connect we are very likely adding “largest 4th quarter collapse in SB history” to this fucking idiots resume.

Not sure if the wet fart the Falcons shat out last year would have surpassed it or not. Would have been biggest collapse up to that point regardless


Disagree with one point; it was an amazing catch and even a better throw!


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:38 pm 
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955876 wrote:
And that punt would have pinned us deep. Giving us further to go on what was already going to be limited time.

10-15 yards of FP probably. That's not much.

A punt from just inside the 40, probably you get it at the 10 or 15. A punt from their 34 you fair catch around the 20 or 25.

I thought the call was 50/50 at the time, although the computer models say the onside was a whisker better chance. Neither option had better than a 4% chance of becoming a win.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:40 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
955876 wrote:
And that punt would have pinned us deep. Giving us further to go on what was already going to be limited time.

10-15 yards of FP probably. That's not much.

A punt from just inside the 40, probably you get it at the 10 or 15. A punt from their 34 you fair catch around the 20 or 25.

I thought the call was 50/50 at the time, although the computer models say the onside was a whisker better chance. Neither option had better than a 4% chance of becoming a win.



Sorry but i call BS


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:44 pm 
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Gonzo wrote:
StillerDownSouth wrote:
What are you talking about Gonzo, there was 1 second on the clock on final kick off, clock starts once ball is touched and had we recovered we could’t advance it. Only way PS could have scored was if they kicked it and the ball somehow made it to the endzone with us recovering it.


The kicking team can score off a fumble. The could pop up the kick and hope the catch is muffed
Kick it hard at someone and hope the are fool enough to not fair catch and try to run and fumble



Cant advance a muff.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:45 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
955876 wrote:
And that punt would have pinned us deep. Giving us further to go on what was already going to be limited time.

10-15 yards of FP probably. That's not much.

A punt from just inside the 40, probably you get it at the 10 or 15. A punt from their 34 you fair catch around the 20 or 25.

I thought the call was 50/50 at the time, although the computer models say the onside was a whisker better chance. Neither option had better than a 4% chance of becoming a win.


You're underestimating....see other OP. More like 25 yards dif in FP....and Steelers needing a TD to tie.

Minimizing the difference in yardage needed is akin to Tomlin throwing away precious seconds before calling timeout.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:47 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
955876 wrote:
And that punt would have pinned us deep. Giving us further to go on what was already going to be limited time.

10-15 yards of FP probably. That's not much.

A punt from just inside the 40, probably you get it at the 10 or 15. A punt from their 34 you fair catch around the 20 or 25.

I thought the call was 50/50 at the time, although the computer models say the onside was a whisker better chance. Neither option had better than a 4% chance of becoming a win.



This is exactly the point I was making earlier in this thread. It was not a no brainer kick it deep scenario, although as I stated earlier I would have preferred to pooch into a voided hole onside variety.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:50 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
955876 wrote:
And that punt would have pinned us deep. Giving us further to go on what was already going to be limited time.

10-15 yards of FP probably. That's not much.

A punt from just inside the 40, probably you get it at the 10 or 15. A punt from their 34 you fair catch around the 20 or 25.

I thought the call was 50/50 at the time, although the computer models say the onside was a whisker better chance. Neither option had better than a 4% chance of becoming a win.


You're underestimating....see other OP. More like 25 yards dif in FP....and Steelers needing a TD to tie.

Minimizing the difference in yardage needed is akin to Tomlin throwing away precious seconds before calling timeout.



25 yards is worse case scenario, best case scenario is about 5-10 yards diff. I would take a chance to get the ball on an onside versus having to go an extra 25 yards with almost 2 minutes left anyday. Two minutes in the NFL is an eternity, hell we saw the Steelers go damn near 80 yards in less than 30 seconds against the Pats a few weeks ago.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:58 pm 
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GreekSteel wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
955876 wrote:
And that punt would have pinned us deep. Giving us further to go on what was already going to be limited time.

10-15 yards of FP probably. That's not much.

A punt from just inside the 40, probably you get it at the 10 or 15. A punt from their 34 you fair catch around the 20 or 25.

I thought the call was 50/50 at the time, although the computer models say the onside was a whisker better chance. Neither option had better than a 4% chance of becoming a win.



Sorry but i call BS

Quote:
One other thing that I thought deserved some discussion was Pittsburgh's onside kick down 42-35 with a two-minute warning and two timeouts left. GWC agreed with the decision by a very small margin, favoring the onside kick 4.2 percent to 3.8 percent for the kickoff. Certainly the circumstances of Pittsburgh's defense getting their ass kicked helped as well. I get it, but it's so hard to come back from 10 points down at that point in time I probably would've kicked it off regularly and hoped for the best.


footballoutsiders.com

https://twitter.com/edjsports

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:55 am 
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StillerDownSouth wrote:
What are you talking about Gonzo, there was 1 second on the clock on final kick off, clock starts once ball is touched and had we recovered we could’t advance it. Only way PS could have scored was if they kicked it and the ball somehow made it to the endzone with us recovering it.

Exactly...the only option at that point.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:15 pm 
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While you guys are arguing about onside kick or not, I want to know why the two times Boswell tried it he flubbed it bad.

As a kicker you have a handful of techniques at your disposal, and he failed miserably two consecutive times. Failing an onside kick shouldn't be determined by the kicker fucking up. AND it's not like they surprised Jax with the kick. There was no play design other than try to kick it ten yards and hope for the best. All five guys on that side of the field just went north.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:23 pm 
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COR-TEN wrote:
While you guys are arguing about onside kick or not, I want to know why the two times Boswell tried it he flubbed it bad.

As a kicker you have a handful of techniques at your disposal, and he failed miserably two consecutive times. Failing an onside kick shouldn't be determined by the kicker fucking up. AND it's not like they surprised Jax with the kick. There was no play design other than try to kick it ten yards and hope for the best. All five guys on that side of the field just went north.


I’ve seen a lot of bad onside kicks over the years, and that one was up there with the very very worst. Zero play design and apparent confusion on the field and on the sidelines as to what they were going to try. Am I wrong in remembering another one where Boswell went for the ball and barely touched it sending it a few inches forward? I absolutely love Boswell as a kicker. Brilliant. It’s hard to be an mvp candidate on a team with this much offensive talent, but he practically qualified. But, please, let’s learn a few variations on an emergency play, and give him some sense of technique.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:29 pm 
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Will-the-Shake wrote:
COR-TEN wrote:
While you guys are arguing about onside kick or not, I want to know why the two times Boswell tried it he flubbed it bad.

As a kicker you have a handful of techniques at your disposal, and he failed miserably two consecutive times. Failing an onside kick shouldn't be determined by the kicker fucking up. AND it's not like they surprised Jax with the kick. There was no play design other than try to kick it ten yards and hope for the best. All five guys on that side of the field just went north.


I’ve seen a lot of bad onside kicks over the years, and that one was up there with the very very worst. Zero play design and apparent confusion on the field and on the sidelines as to what they were going to try. Am I wrong in remembering another one where Boswell went for the ball and barely touched it sending it a few inches forward? I absolutely love Boswell as a kicker. Brilliant. It’s hard to be an mvp candidate on a team with this much offensive talent, but he practically qualified. But, please, let’s learn a few variations on an emergency play, and give him some sense of technique.




That was when he tried a soccer trick kick called the Rabona.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:37 pm 
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GreekSteel wrote:
Will-the-Shake wrote:
COR-TEN wrote:
While you guys are arguing about onside kick or not, I want to know why the two times Boswell tried it he flubbed it bad.

As a kicker you have a handful of techniques at your disposal, and he failed miserably two consecutive times. Failing an onside kick shouldn't be determined by the kicker fucking up. AND it's not like they surprised Jax with the kick. There was no play design other than try to kick it ten yards and hope for the best. All five guys on that side of the field just went north.


I’ve seen a lot of bad onside kicks over the years, and that one was up there with the very very worst. Zero play design and apparent confusion on the field and on the sidelines as to what they were going to try. Am I wrong in remembering another one where Boswell went for the ball and barely touched it sending it a few inches forward? I absolutely love Boswell as a kicker. Brilliant. It’s hard to be an mvp candidate on a team with this much offensive talent, but he practically qualified. But, please, let’s learn a few variations on an emergency play, and give him some sense of technique.




That was when he tried a soccer trick kick called the Rabona.


Right! I remember it clearly now. Terrible execution of the rabona, and in the wrong sport to boot.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:42 pm 
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Will-the-Shake wrote:
COR-TEN wrote:
While you guys are arguing about onside kick or not, I want to know why the two times Boswell tried it he flubbed it bad.

As a kicker you have a handful of techniques at your disposal, and he failed miserably two consecutive times. Failing an onside kick shouldn't be determined by the kicker fucking up. AND it's not like they surprised Jax with the kick. There was no play design other than try to kick it ten yards and hope for the best. All five guys on that side of the field just went north.


I’ve seen a lot of bad onside kicks over the years, and that one was up there with the very very worst. Zero play design and apparent confusion on the field and on the sidelines as to what they were going to try. Am I wrong in remembering another one where Boswell went for the ball and barely touched it sending it a few inches forward? I absolutely love Boswell as a kicker. Brilliant. It’s hard to be an mvp candidate on a team with this much offensive talent, but he practically qualified. But, please, let’s learn a few variations on an emergency play, and give him some sense of technique.
You'd think considering the number of games they won by three points going down to the wire, they'd have number of onside kick formations, and would have practiced them more than usual - as it might be needed in close games. They looked like the keystone cops. Just like the last series after the overturned James TD against the pats.

Just like a corporation might hire an efficiency expert or expediter, the steelers need a disciplinarian that has the team prepared and ready to go in an instant. Haley didn't do it with the offense, Butler isn't doing it with the defense, and Smith is an enigma, increasing punt and FG kick blocks, maybe a fake punt, but fails miserably with ST penalties, punt and kick returns and coverage.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:48 pm 
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As most of the arguments involve statistical analysis of probabilities, consider this: Jacksonville was 100% successful in NEVER going 3 and out.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 12:58 pm 
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XPGH wrote:
As most of the arguments involve statistical analysis of probabilities, consider this: Jacksonville was 100% successful in NEVER going 3 and out.


Except on their last drive after the onsides kick when they ran 3 straight obvious running plays that the defense knew were coming and stopped them.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:04 pm 
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"I can't believe that bug-eyed idiot Tomlin kicked off deep without even trying an onside kick, when he knew his defense hadn't forced a three and out ALL DAY! WTF!! What did he think was going to happen??? The probabilities say onside there... fuck his gut!!!"

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:19 pm 
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The probability of getting a 3 and out 50 yards from a FG attempt was not great. The probability of getting a 3 and out 12 yards from a FG attempt was miniscule. Jacksonville went conservative once they got the ball back because our defense's will was all but broken. They had been humbled by a superior opponent and their head coach basically said fuck you losers I'm rolling the dice.

Combine this with a special teams that looked as if they practiced an onside kick once last August only...the onside kick was a bad idea.

Even the worst AI algorithm would have went with a conservative kickoff. Sell out vs the run..hope someone on Jacksonville's offense will pucker and not make a play when the game is on the line. Hope that the crowd and the defense have one last stand. You are on pure emotion at this point. Live and die by giving your broken defense one more chance to redeem itself instead of resorting to desperate, half-assed measures.

And yes...I love Mike Tomlin.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:36 pm 
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ChicagoSteel wrote:
The probability of getting a 3 and out 50 yards from a FG attempt was not great. The probability of getting a 3 and out 12 yards from a FG attempt was miniscule. Jacksonville went conservative once they got the ball back because our defense's will was all but broken. They had been humbled by a superior opponent and their head coach basically said fuck you losers I'm rolling the dice.

Combine this with a special teams that looked as if they practiced an onside kick once last August only...the onside kick was a bad idea.

Even the worst AI algorithm would have went with a conservative kickoff. Sell out vs the run..hope someone on Jacksonville's offense will pucker and not make a play when the game is on the line. Hope that the crowd and the defense have one last stand. You are on pure emotion at this point. Live and die by giving your broken defense one more chance to redeem itself instead of resorting to desperate, half-assed measures.

And yes...I love Mike Tomlin.

I've posted the link multiple times. The AI algorithm chose onside over deep KO... something like 4.3% win probability to 3.5%.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:52 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
"I can't believe that bug-eyed idiot Tomlin kicked off deep without even trying an onside kick, when he knew his defense hadn't forced a three and out ALL DAY! WTF!! What did he think was going to happen??? The probabilities say onside there... fuck his gut!!!"


I'm actually surprised the odds are that close.

I agree the FP is probably 10-15 yards difference. And Ben gets the ball back with plenty of time to drive for the TD. Either scenario requires a 3 and out from your D, so might as well give yourself one more chance to get the ball back with the onside kick.

And there have been plenty of times where a defense had gotten 3 and outs MOST of the day, they did a regular kick-off and BOOM once first down and the game was over.

You almost ALWAYS onside kick when your defense must get a 3 and out.....but apparently this is not common sense. The yardage is not particularly relevant (unless you botch the attempt AND tack on a penalty).

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:29 pm 
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Jobus Rum wrote:
StillerDownSouth wrote:
What are you talking about Gonzo, there was 1 second on the clock on final kick off, clock starts once ball is touched and had we recovered we could’t advance it. Only way PS could have scored was if they kicked it and the ball somehow made it to the endzone with us recovering it.

Exactly...the only option at that point.


A fumble can be returned for a TD
Or a recovery in the EZ
I was wrong about a muffed catch


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