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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:04 pm 
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"I can't believe that bug-eyed idiot Tomlin kicked off deep without even trying an onside kick, when he knew his defense hadn't forced a three and out ALL DAY! WTF!! What did he think was going to happen??? The probabilities say onside there... fuck his gut!!!"

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:19 pm 
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The probability of getting a 3 and out 50 yards from a FG attempt was not great. The probability of getting a 3 and out 12 yards from a FG attempt was miniscule. Jacksonville went conservative once they got the ball back because our defense's will was all but broken. They had been humbled by a superior opponent and their head coach basically said fuck you losers I'm rolling the dice.

Combine this with a special teams that looked as if they practiced an onside kick once last August only...the onside kick was a bad idea.

Even the worst AI algorithm would have went with a conservative kickoff. Sell out vs the run..hope someone on Jacksonville's offense will pucker and not make a play when the game is on the line. Hope that the crowd and the defense have one last stand. You are on pure emotion at this point. Live and die by giving your broken defense one more chance to redeem itself instead of resorting to desperate, half-assed measures.

And yes...I love Mike Tomlin.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 1:36 pm 
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ChicagoSteel wrote:
The probability of getting a 3 and out 50 yards from a FG attempt was not great. The probability of getting a 3 and out 12 yards from a FG attempt was miniscule. Jacksonville went conservative once they got the ball back because our defense's will was all but broken. They had been humbled by a superior opponent and their head coach basically said fuck you losers I'm rolling the dice.

Combine this with a special teams that looked as if they practiced an onside kick once last August only...the onside kick was a bad idea.

Even the worst AI algorithm would have went with a conservative kickoff. Sell out vs the run..hope someone on Jacksonville's offense will pucker and not make a play when the game is on the line. Hope that the crowd and the defense have one last stand. You are on pure emotion at this point. Live and die by giving your broken defense one more chance to redeem itself instead of resorting to desperate, half-assed measures.

And yes...I love Mike Tomlin.

I've posted the link multiple times. The AI algorithm chose onside over deep KO... something like 4.3% win probability to 3.5%.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 3:52 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
"I can't believe that bug-eyed idiot Tomlin kicked off deep without even trying an onside kick, when he knew his defense hadn't forced a three and out ALL DAY! WTF!! What did he think was going to happen??? The probabilities say onside there... fuck his gut!!!"


I'm actually surprised the odds are that close.

I agree the FP is probably 10-15 yards difference. And Ben gets the ball back with plenty of time to drive for the TD. Either scenario requires a 3 and out from your D, so might as well give yourself one more chance to get the ball back with the onside kick.

And there have been plenty of times where a defense had gotten 3 and outs MOST of the day, they did a regular kick-off and BOOM once first down and the game was over.

You almost ALWAYS onside kick when your defense must get a 3 and out.....but apparently this is not common sense. The yardage is not particularly relevant (unless you botch the attempt AND tack on a penalty).

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:29 pm 
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Jobus Rum wrote:
StillerDownSouth wrote:
What are you talking about Gonzo, there was 1 second on the clock on final kick off, clock starts once ball is touched and had we recovered we could’t advance it. Only way PS could have scored was if they kicked it and the ball somehow made it to the endzone with us recovering it.

Exactly...the only option at that point.


A fumble can be returned for a TD
Or a recovery in the EZ
I was wrong about a muffed catch


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:37 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
"I can't believe that bug-eyed idiot Tomlin kicked off deep without even trying an onside kick, when he knew his defense hadn't forced a three and out ALL DAY! WTF!! What did he think was going to happen??? The probabilities say onside there... fuck his gut!!!"


But I thought Tomlin came to Pittsburgh as a defensive guru?

Why did Leonard Fournette ASS RAPE the bug-eyed fuck TWICE IN HEINZ FIELD this season?

Why did a Ravens team with zero offensive weapons score 38 points against the defense?

Why was Deshone Kizer a dropped pass away from beating our first team defense (sans Cam Heyward) late in the season?

Why is Tomlin winless in starts against Blake Bortles and Mike Glennon?

Why did the Steelers defense make Brett Fucking Hundley look like Aaron Rodgers just one week after he was historically horrible against the Bears?

This defense is TERRIBLE and it proved to be TERRIBLE when it mattered most.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 9:48 pm 
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KC wrote:
This defense is TERRIBLE and it proved to be TERRIBLE when it mattered most.


When your defense fails spectacularly....completely....in multiple games, in several seasons. And you continue to blame execution then you have NO CLUE how to scheme to your players talents and abilities.

You lost Shazier a month ago, but otherwise had a healthy group. There's no defending it. NE must have been trying to lose that game to set the dunce up for more playoff humiliation, except JAX beat them to it.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 10:01 pm 
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Can you imagine if Joe Haden didnt literally fall into Tomlins lap. How bad would the defense have been? Mind you it couldnt get any worse. No worries Mr. T comes from a defensive background and he will get this fixed in the next 5-10 years. Maybe.


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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2018 11:59 pm 
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GreekSteel wrote:
Can you imagine if Joe Haden didnt literally fall into Tomlins lap. How bad would the defense have been? Mind you it couldnt get any worse. No worries Mr. T comes from a defensive background and he will get this fixed in the next 5-10 years. Maybe.


I was shocked reading the PPG. They've ALL defended and promoted Tomlin shamelessly. I think only one of them wasn't very critical, and finally acknowledging some things we've been discussing for years. Normally you would think that's EMR preparing people for Tomlin's dismissal.

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 Post subject: Re: The Onside Kick
PostPosted: Fri Jan 19, 2018 12:13 am 
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Flanker wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
Flanker wrote:
I personally thought the game was over if we kicked it deep based off 57+ minutes of watching our defense.

Onside kicks are successful about 20% of the time when the opponent is expecting. I cant remember the last time the Steelers recovered one (I think DHB did) but I've seen other teams do it many times in college and the NFL. The real problem which lead to a relatively easy 45 yard field goal was the embarrassment of the execution. All things being equal if Boswell kicked it to or beyond the 10 yard mark and Jags recovered without the shitty kick and illegal touch they would have been faced with at least a 54 yard kick.

I think a lot of the judgement over the call is based off hindsight. The Jags played it conservative and allowed us a 3 and out because they were basically already in position to kick the field goal even on 4th and inches. Do you think they would have tried a 54 yard kick on 4th and inches? Do you honestly think we had better than a 20% chance to stop them 3 and out if we kicked it deep with their whole playbook available if they wanted to be aggressive and seel the game? I certainly don't...

I think it was pretty much a lose lose situation and Tomlin gambled for our only chance at a win... I think it was the right call and you could do a lot worse than 1 out of 5 when gambling.


I think the 20% success rate that you cite is false.


If you Google it almost every source says around 20%... Imagine the Steelers practicing this 5 times and you dont think the kicking team recovers one with the way a football bounces? The problem is we see one at a time and they are so rare that they seem impossible.... let alone practice 100 and the kicking team cant recover 20 of them? I kindly disagree.


I wonder if Tucker flubs it in that spot?


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