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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:30 am 
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If Conner has a season long injury wouldn't that give Bell some leverage at this point?


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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:44 am 
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jebrick wrote:
  • Le’Veon Bell Steelers $9,432,000
  • Todd Gurley Rams $7,228,306
  • David Johnson Cardinals $5,041,843
  • Devonta Freeman Falcons $5,000,000
  • LeSean McCoy Bills $8,950,000
  • Saquon Barkley Giants $5,671,773
  • Jerick McKinnon 49ers $6,000,000
  • Leonard Fournette Jaguars $6,170,655
  • Lamar Miller Texans $6,750,000
  • Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys $6,806,274
============================
= 600300851

Avg = $6,030,085

If Bell reports this week the average is below 7M
120 % of his current salary is 11,318,400

It only keeps getting worst the longer he is out.

** I got the numbers from https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/ and looked at the top 10 RBs salary THIS YEAR.


Great list.

What I see in this list? Teams with strong RB’s and bad QB play are still average to below average

Once Ben leaves, that will be us. Where Art2 Thou? Get off your ass and go get a damn CB so we have a prayer against NE or KC if we get to the playoffs.


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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:49 am 
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Suwanee88 wrote:
jebrick wrote:
  • Le’Veon Bell Steelers $9,432,000
  • Todd Gurley Rams $7,228,306
  • David Johnson Cardinals $5,041,843
  • Devonta Freeman Falcons $5,000,000
  • LeSean McCoy Bills $8,950,000
  • Saquon Barkley Giants $5,671,773
  • Jerick McKinnon 49ers $6,000,000
  • Leonard Fournette Jaguars $6,170,655
  • Lamar Miller Texans $6,750,000
  • Ezekiel Elliott Cowboys $6,806,274
============================
= 600300851

Avg = $6,030,085

If Bell reports this week the average is below 7M
120 % of his current salary is 11,318,400

It only keeps getting worst the longer he is out.

** I got the numbers from https://overthecap.com/position/running-back/ and looked at the top 10 RBs salary THIS YEAR.


Great list.

What I see in this list? Teams with strong RB’s and bad QB play are still average to below average

Once Ben leaves, that will be us. Where Art2 Thou? Get off your ass and go get a damn CB so we have a prayer against NE or KC if we get to the playoffs.

And conversely, teams with strong qb's and average rb's are above average (with a supporting defense, obviously)
I've been saying this for a long time. We don't need LBell.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:55 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
... It could be that Conner was just a star waiting to happen but, honestly, it would be somewhat out of the blue, based on the previous couple of seasons he played before this one.


Huh? He had 32 carries as a rookie....averaged 4.5 YPC.

And you can post all the DVOA stats you want - I don't think they're very accurate just 6 games into the season. Too small of a sample size.


Yes, Bell looked like a generational talent for a few years there. While it's highly unlikely Conner is such a player, Bell isn't that player any more, either.

Could it actually be that I agree with Kodiak TWICE IN THE SAME THREAD????

Apparently so.

Either you are wearing me down, or I took a head shot from Vontaze Burrfict and didn't press charges.

Side note: How in the hell did he not get hammered for trying to take AB's head off? Again?

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 12:09 pm 
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7forSteel wrote:
Could it actually be that I agree with Kodiak TWICE IN THE SAME THREAD????

Apparently so.

Should tell you all you need to know about your position! ;)

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:02 pm 
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I don't envision this as a chess game any more. I see it as....

Image


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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 1:26 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
7forSteel wrote:
Could it actually be that I agree with Kodiak TWICE IN THE SAME THREAD????

Apparently so.

Should tell you all you need to know about your position! ;)


I resemble that remark!

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 4:22 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Havoc: three HUGE factors

1. run blocking is better than last year
2. the persistence in running into stacks is lessened in 2018
3. the offense is more diverse without Bell/Haley

Conner has maximized his ability, and that's fantastic. At some point, like the 4th outfielder filling in for Barry Bonds, given enough ABs he's going to come to earth, and he's always likely to struggle running vs a truly good run defense.


I wasn't a Conner fan coming into this season, but I would question the second point there.

https://triblive.com/sports/steelers/14195767-74/four-downs-opponents-stacking-line-vs-steelers-and-james-conners-still-succeeding

40 of Conner's 103 rushing attempts have come against 8 men in the box. 3rd highest rate in the NFL. For comparison's sake, Todd Gurley only sees 8 men in the box 10% of the time. Bell at 20% last year. He's running against stacked defenses and still putting up a Pro Bowl caliber season.

I do think you make a great point about a 4th outfielder filling in. You see that a lot in football when a backup comes in and plays at 110% of what they're normally capable of for a few games. But over the course of a long NFL season they can't sustain it and break down. I could see that happening to Conner, but through 6 games he's running just as strong as ever. Maybe he hasn't hit his ceiling yet? When you have his kind of drive and work ethic, who knows? Look at how he's massively improved as a receiver from last year to this year.

Either way, as someone who wanted the Steelers to re-sign Bell, fuck him. I hold onto Bell this year to ride the pine just in case Conner gets hurt. You don't bench a guy who is playing at a Pro Bowl level to bring in a guy who hasn't played a football game in 10 months. Bell took a risk and Conner made the most out of the opportunity presented to him. Tough shit, LB.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 5:34 pm 
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They almost have to trade Bell. His focus is on a long term contract with another team not on this season.


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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 6:56 pm 
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I'm going to state my disagreement with the baseball analogy one last time, for good measure. It doesn't work well in football because a successful replacement player at a skilled position usually succeeds because he hasn't been prepared for. His style of play, tells, mannerisms, and overall ability takes a few weeks to be gameplanned for. It's more about adjustments to him than him changing or regressing over time.

In JC's case, he's already been gameplanned for. There's film on him. His tendancies, weaknesses, and usage within the offensive system are not novel at this point. His success or failure is a result of the efforts of he and the OLine and will continue to be until, or if, LBell upsets the apple cart.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:46 pm 
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TB wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
Havoc: three HUGE factors

1. run blocking is better than last year
2. the persistence in running into stacks is lessened in 2018
3. the offense is more diverse without Bell/Haley

Conner has maximized his ability, and that's fantastic. At some point, like the 4th outfielder filling in for Barry Bonds, given enough ABs he's going to come to earth, and he's always likely to struggle running vs a truly good run defense.


I wasn't a Conner fan coming into this season, but I would question the second point there.

https://triblive.com/sports/steelers/14195767-74/four-downs-opponents-stacking-line-vs-steelers-and-james-conners-still-succeeding

40 of Conner's 103 rushing attempts have come against 8 men in the box. 3rd highest rate in the NFL. For comparison's sake, Todd Gurley only sees 8 men in the box 10% of the time. Bell at 20% last year. He's running against stacked defenses and still putting up a Pro Bowl caliber season.

I do think you make a great point about a 4th outfielder filling in. You see that a lot in football when a backup comes in and plays at 110% of what they're normally capable of for a few games. But over the course of a long NFL season they can't sustain it and break down. I could see that happening to Conner, but through 6 games he's running just as strong as ever. Maybe he hasn't hit his ceiling yet? When you have his kind of drive and work ethic, who knows? Look at how he's massively improved as a receiver from last year to this year.

Either way, as someone who wanted the Steelers to re-sign Bell, fuck him. I hold onto Bell this year to ride the pine just in case Conner gets hurt. You don't bench a guy who is playing at a Pro Bowl level to bring in a guy who hasn't played a football game in 10 months. Bell took a risk and Conner made the most out of the opportunity presented to him. Tough shit, LB.

I heard that stat this week. The Steelers are definitely not running it as much in obvious running situations from obvious formations. We were running a FB and an extra tackle on 1st and 10 last year-- hell, we ran it vs 9 in the box.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 9:49 pm 
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If James Conner played for a team with a lesser OL, a pedestrian QB, and a team not so concerned with balance, he would be an afterthought, who plays hard when he's in as part of a 2-3 RB rotation.

I'm not hating on the guy... he's played well and above his head this year. But let's not get crazy about where he fits in the scheme of things, just because we are justifiably down on Bell.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:16 pm 
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But on this team, Conner has been a bright spot and in my view that is the point. I don't care about what he can't do on a crappy team. The giants offense sucks with Barkley.

Conner's skillset at least to this point has been a great fit for the Steelers.


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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sat Oct 20, 2018 10:19 pm 
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That's true. Haley's dumbass would bring in an extra OT as the third TE and a FB on first and 10 and run it 8 times in a row.

But still, I think we're somewhat predictable when we're running the ball. And that might have more to do with Conner's style and what sets he runs best out of. I wonder if the lack of a deep passing game at this point is part of it as well. It's not like we've got a Mike Wallace or Martavis Bryant out there.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:24 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
If James Conner played for a team with a lesser OL, a pedestrian QB, and a team not so concerned with balance, he would be an afterthought, who plays hard when he's in as part of a 2-3 RB rotation.

I'm not hating on the guy... he's played well and above his head this year. But let's not get crazy about where he fits in the scheme of things, just because we are justifiably down on Bell.

We are likely to see how Bell does with another QB and O-line. If he really is all about the Benjamins then he will end up with a team that has lots of cap space....meaning their QB is likely not highly paid and possibly average. If he is as good as he thinks he is he will still put up Barry Sanders like numbers but a more likely scenario is that he will be average to slightly above average.

He will get the money from some fool owner but I'll be shocked if he does anywhere near as good elsewhere. More likely the outcome will be like Barkley and the Giants.


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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 7:03 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Havoc: three HUGE factors

1. run blocking is better than last year
2. the persistence in running into stacks is lessened in 2018
3. the offense is more diverse without Bell/Haley

Conner has maximized his ability, and that's fantastic. At some point, like the 4th outfielder filling in for Barry Bonds, given enough ABs he's going to come to earth, and he's always likely to struggle running vs a truly good run defense.


Your 4th outfielder analogy is a possibility.

If Bell can get you 1 and a half yards more per carry vs a tough run defense... so what? I would rather have Conner's superior Y/R in the receiving game, more plays over 20 yards, superior rate of scoring TD's (we'll see if his TD rate continues). I'm not sweating what Conner can't do running vs a tough run defense. Throw the football, get Conner in space in the receiving game... that's where the easy yards are in today's game anyway. I value a RB's ability in the receiving game more than the run game in today's NFL. I like Conner in the receiving game more than Bell (at least to this point). Conner slashes thru running lanes at a faster rate than Bell which is what you need from a RB in the receiving game along with hand eye coordination and Conner's hands seem to be every bit as good as Bell's. If Conner turns out to be a 4th outfielder then I will see it different. If Conner wears down over the course of the season, that's on coaches, not Conner.

I do not care what Conner can't do with crappy players around him. That's not the team he plays for. I care about how his skillset translates in the current nfl with the players currently around him. Conner's skillset might be a better fit than Bell for our current roster in today's nfl.


Last edited by Havoc on Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:04 am 
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It's true that it only matters what he does with the talent around him in PIT... for now, because we have BR7.

The comparison isn't between Conner and Bell, it's between Conner and a combo of Conner and other more above average RBs with different skillsets or between Conner and an elite RB, say, in next year's draft.

It may be that Conner's qualities as a teammate and person make him worth keeping and playing over a more talented player. He's certainly earned the right to be starting now.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:54 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
It's true that it only matters what he does with the talent around him in PIT... for now, because we have BR7.

The comparison isn't between Conner and Bell, it's between Conner and a combo of Conner and other more above average RBs with different skillsets or between Conner and an elite RB, say, in next year's draft.

It may be that Conner's qualities as a teammate and person make him worth keeping and playing over a more talented player. He's certainly earned the right to be starting now.


That's where I fall. Bell is definitely the more talented player, it's not even a question. There are very few backs in NFL history that have Bell's vision, instincts, and stop-and-go burst. He was putting together a possible HOF resume before he decided to sit out this year. But Bell lied to his teammates, misled the organization, and hurt the team. Fuck him. The only reason he should stay on this team is if Conner gets hurt, then you begrudgingly play Bell if he's in football shape. Otherwise, I'm going with the cancer survivor, great teammate, who doesn't have a shitty wannabe rap career and isn't out at the club every weekend, who is playing at a Pro Bowl level and unquestionably giving it his all for the team. Our locker room needs more James Conner's and less Le'Veon Bell's.

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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:57 am 
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TB wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
It's true that it only matters what he does with the talent around him in PIT... for now, because we have BR7.

The comparison isn't between Conner and Bell, it's between Conner and a combo of Conner and other more above average RBs with different skillsets or between Conner and an elite RB, say, in next year's draft.

It may be that Conner's qualities as a teammate and person make him worth keeping and playing over a more talented player. He's certainly earned the right to be starting now.


That's where I fall. Bell is definitely the more talented player, it's not even a question. There are very few backs in NFL history that have Bell's vision, instincts, and stop-and-go burst. He was putting together a possible HOF resume before he decided to sit out this year. But Bell lied to his teammates, misled the organization, and hurt the team. Fuck him. The only reason he should stay on this team is if Conner gets hurt, then you begrudgingly play Bell if he's in football shape. Otherwise, I'm going with the cancer survivor, great teammate, who doesn't have a shitty wannabe rap career and isn't out at the club every weekend, who is playing at a Pro Bowl level and unquestionably giving it his all for the team. Our locker room needs more James Conner's and less Le'Veon Bell's.

We need less cow Bell! 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Love this chess match between Bell and Colbert/Rooney...
PostPosted: Sun Oct 21, 2018 9:58 am 
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I know other owners and teams with lots of cap room are typically idiots, but why would you pay Bell (or any RB) that kind of scratch when recent history suggests that you don't need that generational talent at RB to reach the promise land? Look at Philly last year - rb by committee. Look at the Patriots - they have never ever had a top 5 rb. How many SB do they now have? No, smart teams don't spend that coin on a RB as it won't give you the winning edge. You draft a rb in the 2nd or 3rd round and find a good complimentary back. You spend your money on WR's , CB's, and pass rushers! (maybe a damn good tight end to boot). The Jets or Dolphins may be stupid enough to give Bell 20+ million, but I wouldn't hold my breath on that figure. I think Bell is hurting his stock quite a bit. As the season progresses, his stock will continue to decline as teams will see that the Steelers are winning without him (we just gotta keep winning). If we start losing, it won't be because our RB isn't getting 100 yards per game, it will be because our QB sucked or the defense sucked. (or we got totally out-coached)


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