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 Post subject: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2019 4:24 pm 
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The last two times we traded up on the first round (2006 and 2003), we ended up with four players overall between the two drafts who were quality players (Polamalu and Ike Taylor in 2003, Santonio Holmes and Willie Colon in 2006), and the rest were pretty much busts. Odds are that we end up with two guys out of this draft who can play, maybe three at most. Time to call your shot. Will these guys boom, bust, or just be meh?

1. Devin Bush: Boom. Has a high floor with the potential to be special. In our scheme I think he's going to make an impact early on and challenge for DPOTY. An absolute perfect fit for our defense, which is why a trade up was so key. Will be a do-everything player and a leader on the defense.

2. Diontae Johnson: Meh. I've seen the comparisons to Emmanuel Sanders but he's not as athletic. Sanders was also a guy coming out who made tons of catches away from his body, which isn't really a strength of Johnson. I've seen the comparisons to AB, but comparing a WR to AB is like comparing a QB to Ben. AB is a unicorn. There won't be a guy with his measurables that plays like he has for the next 20 years. He's not a four-leaf clover, he's an eight-leaf clover. Johnson is skilled but doesn't have AB's core strength, hands, and combat catch ability. I think he'll struggle with NFL physicality, but will still have moments since he knows how to get open and can make plays with the ball in his hands. Solid #2 is his ceiling.

3. Justin Layne: Bust. Needs a year in a NFL weight room before he can see the field. Too raw, too weak, not quick twitch. I have concerns.

4. Benny Snell: Meh. Let's be honest, you have to suck pretty bad not to be a successful RB behind our line. He's actually more explosive than he gets credit for. Playing with "Turnover" Terry Wilson last year as fans came to call him (came out of juco with "Touchdown" Terry as his nickname, would have likely been benched if their D wasn't so amazing), his 2018 tape wasn't as strong as his 2017 tape. He was essentially the entire Kentucky offense, even though they've got some other pro potential players (TE CJ Conrad, and a guy to keep an eye on next year in WR Lynn Bowden Jr.), but the OC was incredibly conservative and didn't mind at all running Snell into stacked boxes and treating the forward pass like a wild new invention only used out on the West Coast. Despite being the entire focal point, he'd still wear defenses down over the course of the game, and would take advantage of a small sliver and turn it into a gashing run. Great kid. Isn't a natural receiver but doesn't have bad hands either, just didn't have the opportunity, will be a great blocker. If given an opportunity at the reins I think he'd succeed. Potential boom player.

5. Zach Gentry: Bust. A reach for a TE in the fifth round. UDFA talent. I will enjoy reading the reports out of Latrobe of him getting absolutely destroyed in backs on backers though. Should be a good confidence boost for the LBs.

6a. Sutton Smith: Bust. Ceiling is a decent STs player. Yawn. Wasted pick. Seems like a good fit for the XFL when it starts back up.

6b. Isaiah Buggs: Bust. Looks like a fire hydrant. There are a lot of dogs in the NFL. Just saying.

6c. Ulysses Gilbert III: Bust. No instincts, but looks like a guy who will stick on the practice squad for a couple of years with his athletic profile.

7. Derwin Gray: Bust. Potential meh player if Munchak were still around. Don't like the profile, wasn't a good player at Maryland. Last player from Maryland we took was Sean Davis, who wasn't a good player either and shockingly (!!!) hasn't been a good NFL player either.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2019 5:01 pm 
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1.Bush meh, hate the trade, I think it was a big reach, elite players don’t have 66 tackles, over hyped. If they don’t get a dominant nose tackle that commands double teams could fall into bust for what they gave up to get him.
2.BUST
3.Johnson boom, Steelers usually hit it with 3rd round receivers. Starter year 2.
3b.Layne boom, year in the weight room could be starter year 2, if they don’t want to pay Haden 14-15 million a year on an extension.
4.Snell, meh, I think he’ll be a good backup.
5.Gentry, meh another Jesse James type, same level of production.
6.Smith bust.
6b.Buggs, meh could take McCullers spot.
6c.Grant meh, takes Dirty Red’s spot, back up special teams.
7.Gray meh, practice squad for a year or two Steelers usually good at late round /udfa o line picks.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2019 7:28 pm 
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This topic - meh
Prognostication must be unveiled in poetic quatrain anything else is fucking BORING.

Come, fill the Cup, and in the fire of Spring
Your Winter garment of Repentance fling:
The Bird of Time has but a little way
To flutter—and the Turk finds Brad Wing

This was an actual quote from Nostradamus predicting our punting woes.
And herein lies the rub, there are several quatrains that talk about Rex Ryan's foot fetish, yet none that talk about our trade up for Bush.
True facts.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2019 11:01 pm 
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I think Bush grows quickly in this defense and becomes a real obstacle in the middle. Diontae is the second coming of Clank Sanders. Let's hope he can keep from breaking his foot. If so he should be serviceable. Layne reminds me of Ricardo Colclough. Guess we could use another rb.

All that said. I'm higher on Gentry and Smith than most and feel that they will round out this draft as solid contributors.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2019 11:04 pm 
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Strom Detmer wrote:
This topic - meh
Prognostication must be unveiled in poetic quatrain anything else is fucking BORING.

Come, fill the Cup, and in the fire of Spring
Your Winter garment of Repentance fling:
The Bird of Time has but a little way
To flutter—and the Turk finds Brad Wing

This was an actual quote from Nostradamus predicting our punting woes.
And herein lies the rub, there are several quatrains that talk about Rex Ryan's foot fetish, yet none that talk about our trade up for Bush.
True facts.

:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Sun May 05, 2019 11:07 pm 
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I think those first four picks all contribute as eventual starters or role players. Snell takes the #2 RB job in camp. Dionte is the primary return man and receiver in packages this year, works his way into a top 3 WR spot by next season. Bush will start this year, he better be good. Layne I think is either a hit or a miss, no in between on him. With low pressure and a year to develop, no reason he can’t be a good starter in time. Getting anything from round 5 on is just a bonus.

Remember a “good draft” is 2 starters and a role player. That’s it. Drafting is hard. The results are rarely great across the board.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 7:27 am 
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SP wrote:
I think those first four picks all contribute as eventual starters or role players. Snell takes the #2 RB job in camp. Dionte is the primary return man and receiver in packages this year, works his way into a top 3 WR spot by next season. Bush will start this year, he better be good. Layne I think is either a hit or a miss, no in between on him. With low pressure and a year to develop, no reason he can’t be a good starter in time. Getting anything from round 5 on is just a bonus.

Remember a “good draft” is 2 starters and a role player. That’s it. Drafting is hard. The results are rarely great across the board.


Spot on.

2 good players and a contributor or 2 and we are in business. Bush will be a player, Diontae will be an early contributor, Snell will be a good #2.

I think Layne, Sutton Smith and Buggs have a chance to carve out roles as well.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 8:12 am 
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Here are the first 3 seasons of a certain Pittsburgh Steeler WR:

16 catches 167 yards, 10.4 avg, 0 TDs
69 catches, 1108 yards, 16.1 avg, 2 TDs
66 catches, 787 yards, 11.9 avg, 5 TDs

I don't want to hear this nonsense about how Antonio Brown was great from the start, how he was so polished, how he was so strong, how he was such a great route runner from day one. Bullshit.

It took Brown time to work on his craft, to build up his body, but that does not necessarily mean that a rookie WR can't come in and be prolific, JuJu proved that. I think that if anything Brown showed what hard work and attention to detail can make you a success in the NFL, regardless of size or stature at WR. Now, there are more WRs coming into the NFL that are polished, that can run great routes. I don't think Brown was quite there yet his first 3 seasons, it took time. Johnson might actually be more advanced in some areas than Brown was as a rookie. JuJu certainly was and Brown was jealous of how easy JuJu made it look as a rookie.

I think Diontae can come in and do really well as a rookie. More and more WRs as rookies are coming into the NFL and doing really well. Johnson is coming into the best situation a rookie WR could ever want.

He is not being counted upon to be the #1 or #2 WR, JuJu and Washington should be the starters, but Johnson can be the #3 and flourish with Ben as his QB and with Fitchner being a creative OC. For those still thinking Rogers or Switz will keep Johnson off the field, right :lol: Moncrief and Johnson will be the 3rd WR depending on down, distance, etc.

I can envision Johnson have 3-3.5 times the catches of Brown's rookie year, 55-60 catches to Brown's 16.

I guess I don't understand how people can be so pessimistic or dream so small with our draft picks every year. When we drafted JuJu I expected 60 catches, 800 yards and 8 TDs and thought Eli Rogers had no chance. Others thought JuJu was a reach and would be lucky to be active each game because Eli Rogers was so good :roll:

I expect Teryl Austin to make Justin Layne his next Pro Bowl CB, maybe not as a rookie but is it too much to expect that he pushes Burns off the roster and plays 35-40% of the snaps as a rookie? I expect Bush to have 100+ tackles, 3-4 INTs and 4-5 sacks as a rookie. I expect Johnson to have 55-60 catches for 800 yard and to add over another 1,000 yards as a punt/kick returner with 2 TD returns. So, all combined maybe 8-9 TDs as a rookie??

I expect Benny Snell to have 300-350 yards rushing and 4-5 TDs as the short yardage, goal line specialist, and closer in the 4th quarter.

Why is it wrong to be optimistic that our draft class can have an impact as rookies?? Maybe if more of you believed and stopped with your negativity, it might actually happen.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 8:42 am 
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Ju Ju- clutch catches
Montcrief -size/speed
Diontae. - route running/shiftiness
I could definitely see that as the 3 wr set by mid season or sooner.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 9:03 am 
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This is a topic no one wants me to post on.

I spent some time watching entire games on torrent files

If you asked me right now the Steelers had a historical draft

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 10:36 am 
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SP wrote:
I think those first four picks all contribute as eventual starters or role players. Snell takes the #2 RB job in camp. Dionte is the primary return man and receiver in packages this year, works his way into a top 3 WR spot by next season. Bush will start this year, he better be good. Layne I think is either a hit or a miss, no in between on him. With low pressure and a year to develop, no reason he can’t be a good starter in time. Getting anything from round 5 on is just a bonus.

Remember a “good draft” is 2 starters and a role player. That’s it. Drafting is hard. The results are rarely great across the board.


Indeed.

We all get to drawn in by a media that loves to inflate player's values to give fans a false sense of what draft classes can be rather than what they are.


Last edited by steelclan on Mon May 06, 2019 11:12 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 10:56 am 
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Bush could be a boom -- i think he has no in between ... he will be excellent or poor
Snell can play a role but dont see him as a starter.
the rest are all meh-bust for me.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 11:22 am 
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SP wrote:
I think those first four picks all contribute as eventual starters or role players. Snell takes the #2 RB job in camp. Dionte is the primary return man and receiver in packages this year, works his way into a top 3 WR spot by next season. Bush will start this year, he better be good. Layne I think is either a hit or a miss, no in between on him. With low pressure and a year to develop, no reason he can’t be a good starter in time. Getting anything from round 5 on is just a bonus.

Remember a “good draft” is 2 starters and a role player. That’s it. Drafting is hard. The results are rarely great across the board.


The 2017 draft is looking amazing. Still early but looks like we drafted two perennial pro bowlers AND a starter / role player.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 11:24 am 
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TB wrote:
The last two times we traded up on the first round (2006 and 2003), we ended up with four players overall between the two drafts who were quality players (Polamalu and Ike Taylor in 2003, Santonio Holmes and Willie Colon in 2006), and the rest were pretty much busts. Odds are that we end up with two guys out of this draft who can play, maybe three at most. Time to call your shot. Will these guys boom, bust, or just be meh?

1. Devin Bush: Boom. Has a high floor with the potential to be special. In our scheme I think he's going to make an impact early on and challenge for DPOTY. An absolute perfect fit for our defense, which is why a trade up was so key. Will be a do-everything player and a leader on the defense.

2. Diontae Johnson: Meh. I've seen the comparisons to Emmanuel Sanders but he's not as athletic. Sanders was also a guy coming out who made tons of catches away from his body, which isn't really a strength of Johnson. I've seen the comparisons to AB, but comparing a WR to AB is like comparing a QB to Ben. AB is a unicorn. There won't be a guy with his measurables that plays like he has for the next 20 years. He's not a four-leaf clover, he's an eight-leaf clover. Johnson is skilled but doesn't have AB's core strength, hands, and combat catch ability. I think he'll struggle with NFL physicality, but will still have moments since he knows how to get open and can make plays with the ball in his hands. Solid #2 is his ceiling.

3. Justin Layne: Bust. Needs a year in a NFL weight room before he can see the field. Too raw, too weak, not quick twitch. I have concerns.

4. Benny Snell: Meh. Let's be honest, you have to suck pretty bad not to be a successful RB behind our line. He's actually more explosive than he gets credit for. Playing with "Turnover" Terry Wilson last year as fans came to call him (came out of juco with "Touchdown" Terry as his nickname, would have likely been benched if their D wasn't so amazing), his 2018 tape wasn't as strong as his 2017 tape. He was essentially the entire Kentucky offense, even though they've got some other pro potential players (TE CJ Conrad, and a guy to keep an eye on next year in WR Lynn Bowden Jr.), but the OC was incredibly conservative and didn't mind at all running Snell into stacked boxes and treating the forward pass like a wild new invention only used out on the West Coast. Despite being the entire focal point, he'd still wear defenses down over the course of the game, and would take advantage of a small sliver and turn it into a gashing run. Great kid. Isn't a natural receiver but doesn't have bad hands either, just didn't have the opportunity, will be a great blocker. If given an opportunity at the reins I think he'd succeed. Potential boom player.

5. Zach Gentry: Bust. A reach for a TE in the fifth round. UDFA talent. I will enjoy reading the reports out of Latrobe of him getting absolutely destroyed in backs on backers though. Should be a good confidence boost for the LBs.

6a. Sutton Smith: Bust. Ceiling is a decent STs player. Yawn. Wasted pick. Seems like a good fit for the XFL when it starts back up.

6b. Isaiah Buggs: Bust. Looks like a fire hydrant. There are a lot of dogs in the NFL. Just saying.

6c. Ulysses Gilbert III: Bust. No instincts, but looks like a guy who will stick on the practice squad for a couple of years with his athletic profile.

7. Derwin Gray: Bust. Potential meh player if Munchak were still around. Don't like the profile, wasn't a good player at Maryland. Last player from Maryland we took was Sean Davis, who wasn't a good player either and shockingly (!!!) hasn't been a good NFL player either.


Outside of kicking, I think the position strength is most unnecessary for is CB. True, won’t be great in run support and may occasionally have issues with tackles in the open field. May have some issues with bump and run. But if he can stick to a receiver and make plays on the ball, then he can make a positive impact.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 11:29 am 
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Stairway 2 Seven wrote:
Ju Ju- clutch catches
Montcrief -size/speed
Diontae. - route running/shiftiness
I could definitely see that as the 3 wr set by mid season or sooner.


Don't give up on Washington.

He looked damn good the last few games. Made some very tough catches and had looked like he turned a corner.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 12:14 pm 
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SP wrote:
I think those first four picks all contribute as eventual starters or role players. Snell takes the #2 RB job in camp. Dionte is the primary return man and receiver in packages this year, works his way into a top 3 WR spot by next season. Bush will start this year, he better be good. Layne I think is either a hit or a miss, no in between on him. With low pressure and a year to develop, no reason he can’t be a good starter in time. Getting anything from round 5 on is just a bonus.

Remember a “good draft” is 2 starters and a role player. That’s it. Drafting is hard. The results are rarely great across the board.

You think Conner will be demoted to #3? Because there's no way Samuels is going backwards... he was great last year for a rookie, and he's going to take a step forward. I firmly believe there are roles for all three guys but that Samuels is going to get work, and a lot of it.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 12:52 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
SP wrote:
I think those first four picks all contribute as eventual starters or role players. Snell takes the #2 RB job in camp. Dionte is the primary return man and receiver in packages this year, works his way into a top 3 WR spot by next season. Bush will start this year, he better be good. Layne I think is either a hit or a miss, no in between on him. With low pressure and a year to develop, no reason he can’t be a good starter in time. Getting anything from round 5 on is just a bonus.

Remember a “good draft” is 2 starters and a role player. That’s it. Drafting is hard. The results are rarely great across the board.

You think Conner will be demoted to #3? Because there's no way Samuels is going backwards... he was great last year for a rookie, and he's going to take a step forward. I firmly believe there are roles for all three guys but that Samuels is going to get work, and a lot of it.


Not to offend your man crush, but Benny Snell had more rushing yards last year than Samuels had in his college and pro career combined. Samuels profiles as a #3 back. Snell is going to push Conner. He’s a workhorse and fits the Steelers RB profile perfectly.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 12:57 pm 
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Samuels average case is V. Haynes and best case is James White. Hopefully he reaches White’s talent and is utilized similarly.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 2:20 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
SP wrote:
I think those first four picks all contribute as eventual starters or role players. Snell takes the #2 RB job in camp. Dionte is the primary return man and receiver in packages this year, works his way into a top 3 WR spot by next season. Bush will start this year, he better be good. Layne I think is either a hit or a miss, no in between on him. With low pressure and a year to develop, no reason he can’t be a good starter in time. Getting anything from round 5 on is just a bonus.

Remember a “good draft” is 2 starters and a role player. That’s it. Drafting is hard. The results are rarely great across the board.

You think Conner will be demoted to #3? Because there's no way Samuels is going backwards... he was great last year for a rookie, and he's going to take a step forward. I firmly believe there are roles for all three guys but that Samuels is going to get work, and a lot of it.


Conner was unbelievable before he got hurt.

He made the Pro Bowl in his first season as a starter.

If he remains healthy, he's going to be the feature back. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

Snell and Samuels will compete for time behind Conner.

Both are hopefully going to be very good players but Snell's a rookie and Samuels didn't get enough work last season for a determination to be made.

I definitely like how Samuels finished the year. He played well.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 2:33 pm 
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Samuels needs to learn blitz pickup or he will not play. Same for Snell

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 2:45 pm 
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jebrick wrote:
Samuels needs to learn blitz pickup or he will not play. Same for Snell


On tape Snell was the best pass blocking RB I saw by quite some distance.


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 4:50 pm 
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FC wrote:
This is a topic no one wants me to post on.

I spent some time watching entire games on torrent files

If you asked me right now the Steelers had a historical draft

Image


I’ll be your Huckleberry, lay out your case.

Or better yet, how about you guys get together for a post-draft podcast? :twisted: 8-)

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 5:07 pm 
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TB wrote:
Or better yet, how about you guys get together for a post-draft podcast? :twisted: 8-)


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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 6:18 pm 
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FC wrote:
This is a topic no one wants me to post on.

I spent some time watching entire games on torrent files

If you asked me right now the Steelers had a historical draft

Image

I think you are a tough grader.

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 Post subject: Re: Boom, Bust, or Meh
PostPosted: Mon May 06, 2019 6:58 pm 
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Conner did his best rushing work against poor run defenses. His output in those games was below the league average against those same defenses... and he put the ball on the ground at an unacceptable rate AND he got hurt at least once... was it twice?

He can be a nice piece, and I know he went to the blow bowl, which is a nice accomplishment for him coming off a pretty pedestrian rookie year... but let's not delude ourselves into thinking he ought to be anointed the feature back.

16th in DYAR, 21st in DVOA (2.4% above average), 24th in success rate* (49%)

* Success rate breakdown:
In general, a play counts as a "hit" if it gains 40% of yards on first down, 60% of yards on second down, and 100% of yards on third down.
If the team is behind by more than a touchdown in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 50%/65%/100%.
If the team is ahead by any amount in the fourth quarter, the benchmarks switch to 30%/50%/100%.

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