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 Post subject: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 5:54 pm 
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http://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2017/01/03/Frigid-wind-chills-forecast-for-Steelers-game-Sunday-as-cold-front-moves-into-Pittsburgh/stories/201701030125

Frigid wind chills forecast for Steelers game Sunday as cold front moves into Pittsburgh

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By Marianne Mizera / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

The steady rain that’s been making for a dreary start to the New Year in the Pittsburgh region is expected to switch over to light snow showers as temperatures plummet in time for Sunday’s Steelers-Dolphins game.

“Perfect for a Miami visit, high in the low-20s,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Lee Hendricks.

For today, the Weather Service forecasts widespread rain “with a good soaking” throughout the day and into this evening with mild temperatures teetering around 50 degrees. The low will be in the mid-30s.

Then the temps take a dive as a cold front pulls in tonight. Temperatures will fall throughout Wednesday and by late afternoon, the high will only reach the upper 20s, Mr. Hendricks said.

“Overnight Wednesday will drop to 16 degrees,” Mr. Hendricks said, “with snow showers on Thursday that’ll be a dusting or so.” Thursday’s high will hover in the low-20s and then dip to 15 wintry degrees by nightfall.

And those wintry temps will stick around through at least Sunday afternoon, when Steelers fans head to Heinz Field to watch their team face off against the Miami Dolphins in their AFC wild-card playoff game. Kickoff is 1 p.m.

The light wind forecast for game day will make the 20-degree weather harder to bear, however.

“When it’s that cold, even the slightest breeze with make it feel like 8 or 10 degrees,” said Tom Kines, a meteorologist with AccuWeather in State College, Centre County. “But we should be used to it by then.”

“We won’t see anything even close to a warming trend until Monday,” noted Mr. Hendricks.


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:19 pm 
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this is a nice touch

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:21 pm 
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We sweltered in their heat, they can enjoy our cold.

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2017 6:41 pm 
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Poltargyst wrote:
We sweltered in their heat, they can enjoy our cold.


Maybe Timmons can puke on a Dolphins player this time.


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:14 am 
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Are the Steelers practicing outside, in preparation for the cold game?

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:52 am 
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Forecast now high of 19, low 10. Even colder. On our side Coats fingers could be an issue at WR.


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:15 am 
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stillthere wrote:
Poltargyst wrote:
We sweltered in their heat, they can enjoy our cold.


Maybe Timmons can puke on a Dolphins player this time.


He sure does vomit a lot on the field. It's certainly not his conditioning though. Probably because he's going 100mph on every play.

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:15 am 
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This is welcome news. Colder the better I say.

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:34 pm 
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Well, if anyone is interested in doing some "light" reading on the topic of weather effects on offense, try this:

http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/vi ... cmc_theses

It's a well done senior theses that models temperature and wind effects on NFL offensive performance. I've only skimmed it but the methodology seems sound. Here is the abstract:

This paper utilizes NFL game data from the 2002-2013 seasons in an investigation into
the effects of temperature and wind on NFL passing and rushing performance. There are three
separate analyses: (1) the general effects of weather on performance and the advantages/
disadvantages of playing at home with respect to weather, (2) a comparison of how teams
respond to weather when at home vs. on the road, and (3) an examination of the effect of
transitioning weather conditions on visitor performance. Teams tended to have inferior passing
success in low temperatures and consequently supplant passing attempts with rushing attempts in
those conditions. The results suggest that teams perform better at home and that visiting teams
are more sensitive to extreme weather conditions. The results also indicate that visiting teams
playing in significantly colder conditions than their home stadium are the most vulnerable to
inclement weather.

The effects of cold weather and wind are statistically significant but rather small. Sunday's weather should be a slight advantage for the Steelers. Given the tendency for teams to play more conservative in cold, windy conditions and the fact that Miami's run defense is pretty terrible, I expect the Steelers to run the ball a lot. I know a lot of you will hate it. Same with the Dolphins, for many of the same reasons. If they play to a relative draw in the run game, I like the Steelers chances because of the massive advantage at QB.

I see a fairly low scoring, yet decisive win the the Steelers. 23-13.

Another take:

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytic ... ssing.html


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 12:51 pm 
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Location: Sunny Delaware (but the murdery part)
Old School Steeler wrote:
Forecast now high of 19, low 10. Even colder. On our side Coats fingers could be an issue at WR.


Coates' fingers at WR have been an issue in a variety of temperatures this season, so probably a wash. Maybe the numbness helps.


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 2:09 pm 
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TTP wrote:
Well, if anyone is interested in doing some "light" reading on the topic of weather effects on offense, try this:

http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/vi ... cmc_theses

It's a well done senior theses that models temperature and wind effects on NFL offensive performance. I've only skimmed it but the methodology seems sound. Here is the abstract:

This paper utilizes NFL game data from the 2002-2013 seasons in an investigation into
the effects of temperature and wind on NFL passing and rushing performance. There are three
separate analyses: (1) the general effects of weather on performance and the advantages/
disadvantages of playing at home with respect to weather, (2) a comparison of how teams
respond to weather when at home vs. on the road, and (3) an examination of the effect of
transitioning weather conditions on visitor performance. Teams tended to have inferior passing
success in low temperatures and consequently supplant passing attempts with rushing attempts in
those conditions. The results suggest that teams perform better at home and that visiting teams
are more sensitive to extreme weather conditions. The results also indicate that visiting teams
playing in significantly colder conditions than their home stadium are the most vulnerable to
inclement weather.

The effects of cold weather and wind are statistically significant but rather small. Sunday's weather should be a slight advantage for the Steelers. Given the tendency for teams to play more conservative in cold, windy conditions and the fact that Miami's run defense is pretty terrible, I expect the Steelers to run the ball a lot. I know a lot of you will hate it. Same with the Dolphins, for many of the same reasons. If they play to a relative draw in the run game, I like the Steelers chances because of the massive advantage at QB.

I see a fairly low scoring, yet decisive win the the Steelers. 23-13.

Another take:

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytic ... ssing.html

Cold weather minus wet precipitation is just about the best throwing grip/catching grip conditions possible. Ideal for passing game. Still, Miami has some issues allowing the run right now, not the least of which is they have two backup safeties playing and have to protect them.

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:28 pm 
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Its gonna be wicked at the Ketchup Bottle come Sunday ....


The opportunity to get where they want to go will begin in some truly icy conditions for the players and fans onsite.


I smell a deep run and a showdown in Foxborough that will be a chance at slaying the dragon in his den ;)



Hopefully the fucking wind isn't too nasty on Sunday for all of our sake !


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 3:57 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
TTP wrote:
Well, if anyone is interested in doing some "light" reading on the topic of weather effects on offense, try this:

http://scholarship.claremont.edu/cgi/vi ... cmc_theses

It's a well done senior theses that models temperature and wind effects on NFL offensive performance. I've only skimmed it but the methodology seems sound. Here is the abstract:

This paper utilizes NFL game data from the 2002-2013 seasons in an investigation into
the effects of temperature and wind on NFL passing and rushing performance. There are three
separate analyses: (1) the general effects of weather on performance and the advantages/
disadvantages of playing at home with respect to weather, (2) a comparison of how teams
respond to weather when at home vs. on the road, and (3) an examination of the effect of
transitioning weather conditions on visitor performance. Teams tended to have inferior passing
success in low temperatures and consequently supplant passing attempts with rushing attempts in
those conditions. The results suggest that teams perform better at home and that visiting teams
are more sensitive to extreme weather conditions. The results also indicate that visiting teams
playing in significantly colder conditions than their home stadium are the most vulnerable to
inclement weather.

The effects of cold weather and wind are statistically significant but rather small. Sunday's weather should be a slight advantage for the Steelers. Given the tendency for teams to play more conservative in cold, windy conditions and the fact that Miami's run defense is pretty terrible, I expect the Steelers to run the ball a lot. I know a lot of you will hate it. Same with the Dolphins, for many of the same reasons. If they play to a relative draw in the run game, I like the Steelers chances because of the massive advantage at QB.

I see a fairly low scoring, yet decisive win the the Steelers. 23-13.

Another take:

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytic ... ssing.html

Cold weather minus wet precipitation is just about the best throwing grip/catching grip conditions possible. Ideal for passing game. Still, Miami has some issues allowing the run right now, not the least of which is they have two backup safeties playing and have to protect them.


The studies above did show a decline in passing efficiency in colder weather. But, neither control for precipitation. So, it's possible that you are correct and it's really cold/wet rather than cold/dry that is responsible for the overall decline in passing in cold weather games. It would be interesting to see all three variables (wind/temp/precip) in the same model. It's possible that temp drops out when you control for wind and precip (though I doubt it). Really cold weather tends to correlate with higher wind velocities but not to precip.

It actually wouldn't be that hard to do - weather data by date/time is easily available for all NFL cities. It's also easy to pull in the NFL game level passing data with minimal effort. Maybe I'll whip up a quick model in my spare time!


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:15 pm 
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I want to see clear warm and no wind.. If its cold, windy and snowing you can bet your ass we play conservative and turtle.


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 4:48 pm 
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Quote:
The studies above did show a decline in passing efficiency in colder weather. But, neither control for precipitation. So, it's possible that you are correct and it's really cold/wet rather than cold/dry that is responsible for the overall decline in passing in cold weather games.

Oh, I think pansy ass, soft warm weather teams and QBs decline in cold weather. But a cold-weather team, playing at home-- big advantage as long as the QB has grip.

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:12 pm 
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No QB Miami can field has as much cold weather experience as does Ben.

If he gets outgunned at home in frigid conditions this Sunday we weren't getting very far anyways.


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 6:50 pm 
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The Ideal Gas Law Ball Inflation Forecast is 13.2psi. :lol: :lol: :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 7:45 pm 
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TTP wrote:
It actually wouldn't be that hard to do - weather data by date/time is easily available for all NFL cities. It's also easy to pull in the NFL game level passing data with minimal effort. Maybe I'll whip up a quick model in my spare time!

Image

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 8:42 pm 
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Y-Town Steel wrote:
TTP wrote:
It actually wouldn't be that hard to do - weather data by date/time is easily available for all NFL cities. It's also easy to pull in the NFL game level passing data with minimal effort. Maybe I'll whip up a quick model in my spare time!

Image


Guess I set myself up for that one. Well played.


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 9:46 pm 
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one would believe this helps the home cold weather team..hope so.. who has the stats on warm weather or dome team playing in playoff cold? go steelers!


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:17 pm 
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When do the Fins fly in?


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:54 pm 
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bam morris wrote:
one would believe this helps the home cold weather team..hope so.. who has the stats on warm weather or dome team playing in playoff cold? go steelers!

I do remember dog killer going with his dome team to Green Bay and kicking their asses in a cold night game.

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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Wed Jan 04, 2017 10:57 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
bam morris wrote:
one would believe this helps the home cold weather team..hope so.. who has the stats on warm weather or dome team playing in playoff cold? go steelers!

I do remember dog killer going with his dome team to Green Bay and kicking their asses in a cold night game.


'02 Wild Card round


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 1:46 pm 
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READING A HIGH OF 19 DEGREES, PARTLY CLOUDY, WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH. SOUNDS LIKE
RUNNING CONDITIONS.

IT'S 16 IN PLANO,TEXAS WITH FLURRIES AT 11 AM.


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 Post subject: Re: Sunday Weather should be very very cold
PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2017 2:13 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
bam morris wrote:
one would believe this helps the home cold weather team..hope so.. who has the stats on warm weather or dome team playing in playoff cold? go steelers!

I do remember dog killer going with his dome team to Green Bay and kicking their asses in a cold night game.


'02 Wild Card round

Was there ever a QB who could move as well as MIke Vick in his prime?


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