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 Post subject: Re: Shazier guy, or not?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 4:10 am 
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The Pierogi wrote:
Where's the documentation to support this claim that you've been "doing better then the experts" at evaluating draft prospects for the past five years?



I'm not making the case for or against Zivco, but from what I've seen there's a lot of "safety" in group think. By that I mean you can take consensus rankings, break them into a handful of groups, put them in a hat and do as well as the "people paid to do this for a living".

There was like 5 years in a row where PIT absolutely hit on R1 pick after R1 pick....Troy, Ben, Miller, Holmes...They looked like geniuses, then I guess reversion to the mean.

Put it this way.....if you're Colbert and you want to keep your job, you're never drafting AB in R1, for multiple reasons. Being an NFL GM is all about outrunning the guy next to you and not outrunning the bear.

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 Post subject: Re: Shazier guy, or not?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 8:08 am 
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I'm interested in the potential of the players we draft every year. I'm going to be curious to see how they do in the NFL. While I appreciate the opinions on how a player is going to fit from all corners, I'm going to wait and see with my own eyes.

I certainly hope that Shazier does well, it's SBI. I put SBI above all opinions.

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 Post subject: Re: Shazier guy, or not?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 8:26 am 
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I hope Shaz is another Kuechly with is basically the Troy archetype but of course bigger. As we all know that's much more than speed and athleticism, That's football instincts, toughness and nose for the ball. All indications is that he doesn't have it.

As for the draft from everything I saw I thought that we would take the #1 ILB with that being Mosley as the pick and said so pre-draft. Here's to Shaz being a a success and Mosley a failure because that's the cards we were dealt.

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 Post subject: Re: Shazier guy, or not?
PostPosted: Sat Jul 12, 2014 11:09 am 
The Pierogi wrote:
Yeah, Veritas, get it right! He's not a bust (yet), just a horrible pick!


You might not understand it...but I'm certain many do...it's fine to say about anything about a pick...except he's a bust, no chance to play in the NFL, about anything except he's a certain failure. For me, it's not superstition...it's acknowledging players like Hines Ward who really don't look like NFL players even after 2 years in the NFL. Now Ward was a later round pick that didn't have much receiver experience but it took 3 years for him to figure things out.

The Pierogi wrote:
Where's the documentation to support this claim that you've been "doing better then the experts" at evaluating draft prospects for the past five years?


I don't need no stinking documentation. Obviously that's something next to impossible to provide some sort of legitimate proof of life for. But last year I read an analysis of the final big boards of various draft gurus vs what the actual NFL did....and the "gurus" were nearly across the board superior. I really don't care about accuracy of mock drafts...what I'm interested in is the success rate of the top 100. So...the "experts" are doing better then the NFL, and I'm doing better then the "experts"...but you will have to take my word for it.

Kodiak wrote:
By that I mean you can take consensus rankings, break them into a handful of groups, put them in a hat and do as well as the "people paid to do this for a living".


Yep. That's better written then my names and rounds on lottery balls approach.

SteelerzEdsaL7 wrote:
As for the draft from everything I saw I thought that we would take the #1 ILB with that being Mosley as the pick and said so pre-draft. Here's to Shaz being a a success and Mosley a failure because that's the cards we were dealt.


Pretty much where I'm at. I can understand how an analyst can get sucked in by his speed. I get that they can improve his football IQ over time. I know they can hide some of his problems with taking on blockers to some degree. The thing that has me so negative is I flat out don't think he can tackle most NFL RBs and TEs one on one.


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