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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 4:38 pm 
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It's a dumb idea for a couple of very simple reasons.

1) You score a FG, your defense still has to go out there and stop them from scoring a TD.

2) All else equal, differing potentially gives 1 extra possession to them instead of you...which could be your last crack at a win and avoiding a tie.

There really is absolutely nothing to gain from deferring, and several pretty damn good reasons to take the ball.

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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:07 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
It's a dumb idea for a couple of very simple reasons.

1) You score a FG, your defense still has to go out there and stop them from scoring a TD.

2) All else equal, differing potentially gives 1 extra possession to them instead of you...which could be your last crack at a win and avoiding a tie.

There really is absolutely nothing to gain from deferring, and several pretty damn good reasons to take the ball.


I'm not sure if i'm misunderstanding you, but if you defer, stop them, and get the ball back, a field goal wins it.

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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:18 pm 
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This may have been mentioned in one of the previous 9 pages, but the only data I can find on this shows that the team receiving wins 54% of the time. It's safe to assume that in a game that has only had 4 total touchdowns the odds of winning for the receiving team go down. Prob a 50/50 call.

In any case, this isn't a clear error of judgment.

Nothing to see here.

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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:42 pm 
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R S wrote:
I'm not sure if i'm misunderstanding you, but if you defer, stop them, and get the ball back, a field goal wins it.


If you take the ball and get a FG, your defense still has to stop them to win....or hold them to a FG and you need another score to win.

If you take the ball and score a TD, your defense doesn't have to do anything.


There is no inherent advantage to deferring, but there is a not insignificant edge to taking the ball. As far as field position, a TB gives a team the ball on the 25, and many teams with a decent punter can flip that to your 25 (i.e. where you would start on a TB) even if your defense stones completely stones them.

Our return units suck. It's most likely a negative field position choice, where even if our defense holds we likely are then starting with the ball at our 15-20 (which is 5-10 yards less where we start off a TB).

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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:49 pm 
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Lifelongsteel wrote:
It's safe to assume that in a game that has only had 4 total touchdowns the odds of winning for the receiving team go down. Prob a 50/50 call.


I'm not sure that is a "safe" assumption, and the math is a lot more complicated (and you can be sure it's analysis based off a "gut" and not science).

Because let's take your assumption at face value. Both offenses are struggling, both do nothing on their first possession. Their offense now has first crack at winning it with a FG.

My guess is if you do the analysis, regardless of whether the offenses are struggling or the defenses are, first crack to win with a TD (and then a FG) is likely the main explanatory variable in that 54-46% edge. The only thing that might really offset that differential is if the wind, or the sun 8-) , is really wicked in one direction.

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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:59 pm 
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What this shows clearer than anything else is that tomlin simply didn't believe the offense could score a TD on its first possession. Because that ends it. Fuck the FG and field position talk. A team that deserves to win takes the ball and puts it in the end zone. You know like the winless bears did.

Tomlin bet against his offense effectively. It's no wonder this offense is having problems getting going. There's second guessing going on in the HCs head so it probably jams everyone up, outside of AB whose simply basking in greatness and loving life so he's impervious to the negativity.

Everyone else has to find a way out.

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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:59 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
Because let's take your assumption at face value. Both offenses are struggling, both do nothing on their first possession. Their offense now has first crack at winning it with a FG.


If you kick off for OT, and their offense does nothing YOUR offense can then win it with a FG.


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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:05 pm 
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Poltargyst wrote:
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If you kick off for OT, and their offense does nothing YOUR offense can then win it with a FG.


If your offense gets a FG, and then their offense does nothing....you still win. There's 0 advantage to what you're arguing. It's simply a bet against the odds.

Plus, if you take the ball and do little, but maybe get some yards and a first down or two....then you have a good chance to pin them inside their 15-20, and that's probably a little bit of an edge to your defense stopping them from getting a FG.

Now there's another good analysis to do - what's the average starting field position of the second team to get the ball in OT? These are questions we know Tomlin has never put serious thought into - he's on record as going with his gut and not paying attention to what other teams in the league do.

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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:28 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
It's a dumb idea for a couple of very simple reasons.

1) You score a FG, your defense still has to go out there and stop them from scoring a TD.

2) All else equal, differing potentially gives 1 extra possession to them instead of you...which could be your last crack at a win and avoiding a tie.

There really is absolutely nothing to gain from deferring, and several pretty damn good reasons to take the ball.


2009 Packers at Steelers....Offensive shootout, neither defense showed any ability to stop drives. Tomlin saw the flow of the game and after a FG, Steelers attempted an onside kick that failed with 4:00 left on the clock. GB quickly scores a TD leaving 2:00 on the clock. This was the Ben Roethlisberger we all had confidence in with 2 minutes and forever to go. We all know that Ben found Mike Wallace for a game winning TD.

The point is that conventional wisdom says you don't kick an onside kick with the lead and 4 minutes to go. That shows that you don't trust your defense. That's just plain dumb papa! Turns out that dumb mistake led to a Steelers victory. Last week, the offense, including Ben, was ineffective and not to be trusted. To that point, the defensive unit had played better. He clearly wanted to give the unit that was playing better a chance to win.

You call Tomlin dumb every chance you get, but his winning percentage and his peers in his profession respect him, and his players love him. His way with words ain't that good. Even in victory, your critique is unreasonable. Ben should not disclose things like this to the media - he knows by now how fans react to any morsel of crap. Here we are approaching a 10 page thread over a decision that didn't happen. Your agenda is obvious and pathetic.

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 Post subject: Re: Ben: Tomlin wanted to defer in OT
PostPosted: Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:07 pm 
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44LetzRide wrote:
The point is that conventional wisdom says you don't kick an onside kick with the lead and 4 minutes to go. That shows that you don't trust your defense. That's just plain dumb papa!


I disagree with your take. What it really says is you don't expect to get the ball back with 4 minutes left. With a short field, you defense does it's job or it doesn't....either way you're giving yourself time for another offensive possession (completely ignoring that a true "surprise" onside kick has a respectable chance of working for you). They had a 1 pt lead - it didn't automatically put them in FG range....this is a rare case where Tomlin made a very astute choice that increased, rather than decreased, the number of different ways in which they could win the game and likely increased their odds of winning in doing so.

Conventional wisdom is not always the smart and most logical choice, especially when it is based on risk aversion....but often it's because it works and is proven that make conventional wisdom what it is.

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