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 Post subject: Re: Harrison Signed with Patriots
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:49 pm 
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Zeke5123 wrote:
1. We have been over this ad nauseum: there is a large batch of data that suggests his particular coaching staff makes sub optimal personal deployment choices: both strategically and tactically.

Great. You’ve identified a universal coaching deficiency. Doesn’t change my point.

2. There is a large body of social science research documenting how and why experts get things wrong. Moreover, there is a large body of data explaining how to make predictions without relying on experts. A useful metric is: what was occurring is likely to continue to occur. Harrison has been better than Moats forever. Thus, it is likely that he will continue to be better than Moats until there is significant evidence of the contrary.

Almost speechless. This logic tells me we can go cherrypick from the 2005-2008 rosters and upgrade our current one because, well, if they were better then, they’ll be better now. Genius.

3. There is some pretty good arguments explaining why access to more information leads to worse decisions; sometimes experts think they know more than they do.

Another lightning bolt. Watching players practice/play everyday<<<<<<a fan’s arbitrary memory of players ability. Check.

4. All I am doing is using basic prediction theory + updating for new info. All of that leads me to believe Moats is inferior to Harrison.

A fan’s opinion. Check.

5. What about the coach’s background leads you to trust his predictions? I’d say his predictions kind of suck.

The coach has assembled arguably the most talented roster in the NFL. Have you?

6. Blindly trusting coaches because knowledge differences is anti intellectual because it assumes the knowledge in this case is useful. I’d argue based on Tomlin’s history and basic prediction theory, that Tomlin is likely wrong re Harrison. That’s actually thinking. Reflexively sucking up to Tje
Coaches is a logic fallacy built on lazy intellectual underpinnings. Such argument doesn’t engage with the real question — do the coaches typically make good choices when facing borderline player decisions?

Never once advocated blind trust. Again, stop with the assumptions. Hate to beat a dead horse. Is he responsible for this loaded roster, or not?

7. The trust the coach argument is anti social because it shuts down the social discussion. Bit of a tautology but hope you see the point.

Not really. Please explain again how it shut down the social discussion in this case?


I know, weird formatting. But it was easiest on a phone.


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 Post subject: Re: James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 8:59 pm 
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Poltargyst wrote:
Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better. :roll:

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.


You're right -- no one here can read his mind, but we are all speculating.

Moats is worse than Harrison by every measure. He is a free agent after this season.

There is only one logical reason to keep Moats over Harrison -- and that's the homeboy connection.

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

I know the Steelers generally do this as well -- that's why we're stuck with Haley when no one else wanted him.


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 Post subject: Re: James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:36 pm 
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steel wrote:
Poltargyst wrote:
Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better. :roll:

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.


You're right -- no one here can read his mind, but we are all speculating.

Moats is worse than Harrison by every measure. He is a free agent after this season.

There is only one logical reason to keep Moats over Harrison -- and that's the homeboy connection.

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

I know the Steelers generally do this as well -- that's why we're stuck with Haley when no one else wanted him.


No not every measure. Moats has logged 96 ST snaps this year, Harrison 0. So you get rid of a guy that is doing what he can for the team and can fill in at ILB in an emergency over a guy that would be a liability for this defense 2 yards off the LoS? Hometown bias aside how do you keep a guy that isnt even competing to get on the field or trying to help his teammates like a professional would do? James quit on this team and there is no other way to put it. Like it or not the OLB now has many more responsibilities in passing defense than even a year ago. Heyward just had more sacks in a season than most DE who played in Pittsburgh have had in their careers.

No one with eyes or a seeing eye play by play dog wants Harrison matched up against anyone with two functioning legs with his back to the LoS. Any DC worth his salt would lick his chops while calling screens and bunches to his side

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 Post subject: Re: James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:37 pm 
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steel wrote:
I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.


Please document this history.

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 Post subject: Re: James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:42 pm 
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Jeemie wrote:
steel wrote:
I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.


Please document this history.


Hes going to go with the Mike Vick and Tomlin saying that it was easy tp bring him in because Vick is from his neck of the woods and he always looks out for the Virgina guys. But then you can reply that we were 3-1 with Vick. Then it will dissolve into something like a slap fight between two barechested Copenhagen chewing tractor pull enthusiasts.


Said for comedy, not actuality, Jeemie.

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 Post subject: Re: James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 9:56 pm 
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steel wrote:
Poltargyst wrote:
Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better. :roll:

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.


You're right -- no one here can read his mind, but we are all speculating.

Moats is worse than Harrison by every measure. He is a free agent after this season.

There is only one logical reason to keep Moats over Harrison -- and that's the homeboy connection.

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

I know the Steelers generally do this as well -- that's why we're stuck with Haley when no one else wanted him.

So you're immune to the argument that Harrison can't play special teams, and you're immune to the argument that the Steelers have changed their defensive system such that OLB now requires a skill set that Harrison no longer possesses. There are rational points for both sides. For you to say the homeboy connection is the only reason for Tomlin to let Harrison go seems...unwarrented.


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 Post subject: Re: James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:07 pm 
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VeritasSteel wrote:
steel wrote:
Poltargyst wrote:
Ha! I just love how some fans have developed mind reading powers. steel just KNOWS that Tomlin makes personnel decisions based on where players come from rather than how they might make the team better. :roll:

And for the record, I'm on the fence about this. I've seen good arguments about why the Steelers might have been better served to keep Harrison. But steel....you're not one of the guys making them.


You're right -- no one here can read his mind, but we are all speculating.

Moats is worse than Harrison by every measure. He is a free agent after this season.

There is only one logical reason to keep Moats over Harrison -- and that's the homeboy connection.

I think that is a pretty sound conclusion. Tomlin has a history of making personnel decisions based on hometown favoritism.

I know the Steelers generally do this as well -- that's why we're stuck with Haley when no one else wanted him.


No not every measure. Moats has logged 96 ST snaps this year, Harrison 0. So you get rid of a guy that is doing what he can for the team and can fill in at ILB in an emergency over a guy that would be a liability for this defense 2 yards off the LoS? Hometown bias aside how do you keep a guy that isnt even competing to get on the field or trying to help his teammates like a professional would do? James quit on this team and there is no other way to put it. Like it or not the OLB now has many more responsibilities in passing defense than even a year ago. Heyward just had more sacks in a season than most DE who played in Pittsburgh have had in their careers.

No one with eyes or a seeing eye play by play dog wants Harrison matched up against anyone with two functioning legs with his back to the LoS. Any DC worth his salt would lick his chops while calling screens and bunches to his side


James quit on his team because they lied to him and he asked to be released and they refused. He asked for reps and they refused. So he forced their hand.
I have eyes and just saw him go out and put up great stats last game. Are you obtuse??


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 Post subject: Re: James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:14 pm 
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Posts: 966
Garbage sacks in garage time and against garbage OL... If you want to say he contributes for Pat's fine but they have no choice as some said they have nothing at the position and the Steelers do.


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 Post subject: Re: James Harrison mega merged bed wetting thread.
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:10 pm 
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Stinger8 wrote:
James quit on his team because they lied to him and he asked to be released and they refused. He asked for reps and they refused. So he forced their hand.
I have eyes and just saw him go out and put up great stats last game. Are you obtuse??


That's a lot of he said bull shit to justify actions. So a guy can go "rogue" when things don't go his way? How about competing for a spot? How about challenging the young guys to keep improving and know that someone did that for you when you were learning? This team was going to trot out those tired zone schemes and transition into a man team. Getting Haden sped up those plans and changed the responsibilities of the OLB, DL and ILBs- and James was the dinosaur in the room. We were not going to change the defense back just for him he needed to find a way to get on the field- and he quit.

What I saw on Sunday was a guy with something to prove play against a team that was blown out and broken. It was like watching a c2 vet play in the closing minutes of the 4th preseason game against guys who were trying to get on the schedule at the Waffle House. Yes, he can be effective for the Patriots because can put him at the 4-3 DE and he can rush the passer and set the edge and not get really exposed by having to play coverage. But he's only one finger and the Pats dike has lots of holes.

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 Post subject: Re: Harrison Signed with Patriots
PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 11:53 pm 
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Posts: 2079
randomsteelerfan wrote:
Zeke5123 wrote:
1. We have been over this ad nauseum: there is a large batch of data that suggests his particular coaching staff makes sub optimal personal deployment choices: both strategically and tactically.

Great. You’ve identified a universal coaching deficiency. Doesn’t change my point.

2. There is a large body of social science research documenting how and why experts get things wrong. Moreover, there is a large body of data explaining how to make predictions without relying on experts. A useful metric is: what was occurring is likely to continue to occur. Harrison has been better than Moats forever. Thus, it is likely that he will continue to be better than Moats until there is significant evidence of the contrary.

Almost speechless. This logic tells me we can go cherrypick from the 2005-2008 rosters and upgrade our current one because, well, if they were better then, they’ll be better now. Genius.

Yeah -- you simply don't understand my point as evidenced by your response. Let me use an example -- who is more likely to be successful next year: a rookie or a ten year vet? My metric would say the ten year vet; the reasoning being that if he has survived ten years in the NFL, then he must be at least decent. Of course, this doesn't mean you always take the vet. If the vet has sucked the last two years the probability that the vet is better than the rookie decreases fairly rapidly. This of course is the Lindy Effect. Read up on it. Put another way, it stats with the strong prior that what was will continue to be in proportion to the amount of time something was. The prediction is updated based on new info. If something appears sickly, then it is much less likely to survive.

Note that in your mistaking of my hypothesis, many of those the 2005-08 players have failed in the interim. Thus, they are not likely to be better than say a rookie. But the (1?) guy from that team that has continued to play well happens to the best the best player on this team. Might have heard of him. His name is Big Ben. Metric seems to work...



3. There is some pretty good arguments explaining why access to more information leads to worse decisions; sometimes experts think they know more than they do.

Another lightning bolt. Watching players practice/play everyday<<<<<<a fan’s arbitrary memory of players ability. Check.

More information does not necessarily mean more forecasting ability; but it can mean more belief in your ability to forecast. The coaches clearly felt James Harrison wasn't up to snuff. His tape last year suggested otherwise. His limited action this year suggested he hadn't fallen off a cliff. Thus, the probability that he sucks is well limited.

Also, according to Harrison he didn't get many practice reps. So, how were they evaluating him?


4. All I am doing is using basic prediction theory + updating for new info. All of that leads me to believe Moats is inferior to Harrison.

A fan’s opinion. Check.

Glad for you to post such a meaningful response. Go mop some jizz. I guess no one should have any opinion regarding the Steelers besides what the coaches' opinion, because it is just a fan's opinion.

5. What about the coach’s background leads you to trust his predictions? I’d say his predictions kind of suck.

The coach has assembled arguably the most talented roster in the NFL. Have you?

I'd say Kevin Colbert has assembled one of the most talented rosters in the NFL by making some great picks. If anything, the picks Tomlin has had more of a hand in (i.e., the first round picks) have largely disappointed. Will give Tomlin credit for Bell. From what I understand he had a pretty big hand in that. But there have been some great picks in the not first day of the draft that really form the bedrock of this team. I'd say that is more KC than MT.

6. Blindly trusting coaches because knowledge differences is anti intellectual because it assumes the knowledge in this case is useful. I’d argue based on Tomlin’s history and basic prediction theory, that Tomlin is likely wrong re Harrison. That’s actually thinking. Reflexively sucking up to Tje
Coaches is a logic fallacy built on lazy intellectual underpinnings. Such argument doesn’t engage with the real question — do the coaches typically make good choices when facing borderline player decisions?

Never once advocated blind trust. Again, stop with the assumptions. Hate to beat a dead horse. Is he responsible for this loaded roster, or not?

See above. Also, there is precedence for Tomlin making suboptimal decisions with certain players. He does seem to have gotten somewhat better, but do I need to go back to the DHB over MB disaster in the Pats game? Please defend that decision.

7. The trust the coach argument is anti social because it shuts down the social discussion. Bit of a tautology but hope you see the point.

Not really. Please explain again how it shut down the social discussion in this case?


Because if the argument is coaches are always right, then what is the discussion?

Person A: It was right to cut Harrison because Tomlin is a genius.

Person B: Tomlin is a genius, therefore I agree with you.

Not much of a discussion.


I know, weird formatting. But it was easiest on a phone.


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