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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:06 pm 
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You know I am not worried about the cap at all, I know some are worried that we have to fit Bell in with perhaps that $14.5 million franchise tag, but they will find a way.

Some sites are reporting that we are only $2.6 million under the cap for 2018 but I have to wonder where they are getting their numbers. For example we are $5 million under the cap right now for 2017, can't they roll that over to next year?

So, $178 million cap +5 million carryover gives them a total of $183 million right?

One site Spotrac has the top 51 contracts coming to $178 million, there is no dead money to speak of, just a little over $900,000, it would appear that the Steelers are at the very least $5 million under the cap.

That does not factor in Bell or some of the other free agents that we have. But if you cut Mike Mitchell, $5 million, cut Willie Gay $1.75 million, cut JJ Wilcox $3.125 million, cut Sensabaugh $1.4 million, that comes out to $11.275 million. Yeah, you draft and sign players to replace them but the going rate for a backup, 4th safety is $555,000, not $3 million. Signing new players may come out to maybe $2.5 million. Figure 3 low draft picks maybe one is an UDFA and say a 1st or 2nd round pick to replace Mitchell. You still save almost $8.8 million by cutting those 4 former players.

So, they were $5 million under the cap and then made 4 cuts to save $8.8 million that brings the total to $13.8 million under the cap.

Now some may want to whittle more meat off of the bone, I hear people wanting to cut Ramon Foster, Vance McDonald, demanding that Joe Haden take a discount, etc. I think those are all bad decisions. Foster is an underrated Guard, he has one year left on his contract, his base salary is just $2.6 million, he is the players union rep, he is well liked and is the glue that helps that offensive line play as well as it does. McDonald and Haden, I can actually see the Steelers giving them extensions and restructuring their contracts to free up money.

For example with Haden, we signed him to a 3 year $27 million contract and the first year was friendly for the Steelers so that if he did not work out they could cut him. Yes, his final two years he makes a base salary of $9 and then $10 million, but the Steelers could very well give him a two year extension and then convert some of this base salary to a bonus to lessen that $9 million this coming season. For example say they give him that two year extension and then convert $6 million of that $9 million base in a bonus. So, instead of Joe Haden counting $11.9 million against the 2018 cap, he would instead count only $7.4 million ($3 million base, $1 million roster bonus, $3.4 million prorated bonus). That would free up $4.5 million.

So, 13.8 + 4.5 + $18.3 million under the cap.

If they went to Vance McDonald and said hey we want to extend your contract by two years. They redo his contract, extend it by two years and take some of his base salary in 2018 and give it to him in the form of a bonus which is prorated over the length of the 4 years. So, say they they take $3 million of his base and spread it out over those 4 years. His base salary for 2018 would be just $700,000. Instead of counting $4.3 million against the cap for 2018, Vance McDonald now counts just $2.1 million. That would free up $2.2 million.

So, $18.3 + 2.2 = $20.5 million under the cap.

Now I cut 4 players in Mitchell, Gay, Wilcox and Sensabaugh and I restructured two players in Haden and McDonald and we are $20.5 million under the cap.

When you are given a big contract, are one of their core players, the Steeler restructure your contract, that is the way they do business. So, with that in mind, Big Al could very well see his contract restructured for 2018.
He is due a roster bonus of $3 million and has a base salary of $3 million and has a cap hit of $7.625 million. Now, in 2015 Marcus Gilbert had a base salary of $1.9 million and a roster bonus due to him of $3.5 million. The Steelers restructured that to where they took $1.15 million of his base and all of his roster bonus of $3.5 and paid it to him as a signing bonus. That $4.65 million was prorated over the remainder of his contract but it freed up money.

The Steelers could do the same with Alejandro. Convert all of that roster bonus $3 million and say, $2 million of his base salary, give him a $5 million signing bonus and reduce his cap hit from $7.625 million down to $4.29 million, a savings of $3.33 million.

So, $20.5 + 3.33 = $23.833 million

Now that is more than enough money to sign Bell to another franchise tender, sign our own restricted free agents, tender them, etc, and factor in the money needed for the draft picks. It will be tight but Omar Khan and company do this every year. Another candidate to restructure is Stephon Tuitt, he has a combined base and roster bonus of some $11 million in 2018, they could pay him a signing bonus and easily free up $4-5 million too.

Also, I have a feeling that the NFL will give us an exemption if Ryan can't play again and we pay him the 5th year option regardless. I think the NFL will give us some relief on that and that $8.7 million will not count against the cap. We could very well be $32.5 million under the cap if that were to happen.

This is just me guesstimating and speculating on how things might happen in the offseason. I pay attention to what they do and how they do it, all of the above is what they have shown to do in years past.

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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:19 pm 
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Just slightly off topic but has there been any word at all, on how Shaziers recovery is going? Any chance at all he can still play? Or would we be better off just going the exemption route with him now, I mean if he was able to come back at all, have to wonder at what percentage of the type of explosive player that he was before. Man Steelers roster would be absolutely set for a few future championship runs with him still healthy. Also what an absolutely found stuffed wallet of cash that Haden has been, might be our offset for the lost wallet of cash that Shazier is.


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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:32 pm 
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go get Zack Brown from Wash


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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:41 pm 
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Scunge wrote:
You know I am not worried about the cap at all, I know some are worried that we have to fit Bell in with perhaps that $14.5 million franchise tag, but they will find a way.

Some sites are reporting that we are only $2.6 million under the cap for 2018 but I have to wonder where they are getting their numbers. For example we are $5 million under the cap right now for 2017, can't they roll that over to next year?

So, $178 million cap +5 million carryover gives them a total of $183 million right?

One site Spotrac has the top 51 contracts coming to $178 million, there is no dead money to speak of, just a little over $900,000, it would appear that the Steelers are at the very least $5 million under the cap.

That does not factor in Bell or some of the other free agents that we have. But if you cut Mike Mitchell, $5 million, cut Willie Gay $1.75 million, cut JJ Wilcox $3.125 million, cut Sensabaugh $1.4 million, that comes out to $11.275 million. Yeah, you draft and sign players to replace them but the going rate for a backup, 4th safety is $555,000, not $3 million. Signing new players may come out to maybe $2.5 million. Figure 3 low draft picks maybe one is an UDFA and say a 1st or 2nd round pick to replace Mitchell. You still save almost $8.8 million by cutting those 4 former players.

So, they were $5 million under the cap and then made 4 cuts to save $8.8 million that brings the total to $13.8 million under the cap.

Now some may want to whittle more meat off of the bone, I hear people wanting to cut Ramon Foster, Vance McDonald, demanding that Joe Haden take a discount, etc. I think those are all bad decisions. Foster is an underrated Guard, he has one year left on his contract, his base salary is just $2.6 million, he is the players union rep, he is well liked and is the glue that helps that offensive line play as well as it does. McDonald and Haden, I can actually see the Steelers giving them extensions and restructuring their contracts to free up money.

For example with Haden, we signed him to a 3 year $27 million contract and the first year was friendly for the Steelers so that if he did not work out they could cut him. Yes, his final two years he makes a base salary of $9 and then $10 million, but the Steelers could very well give him a two year extension and then convert some of this base salary to a bonus to lessen that $9 million this coming season. For example say they give him that two year extension and then convert $6 million of that $9 million base in a bonus. So, instead of Joe Haden counting $11.9 million against the 2018 cap, he would instead count only $7.4 million ($3 million base, $1 million roster bonus, $3.4 million prorated bonus). That would free up $4.5 million.

So, 13.8 + 4.5 + $18.3 million under the cap.

If they went to Vance McDonald and said hey we want to extend your contract by two years. They redo his contract, extend it by two years and take some of his base salary in 2018 and give it to him in the form of a bonus which is prorated over the length of the 4 years. So, say they they take $3 million of his base and spread it out over those 4 years. His base salary for 2018 would be just $700,000. Instead of counting $4.3 million against the cap for 2018, Vance McDonald now counts just $2.1 million. That would free up $2.2 million.

So, $18.3 + 2.2 = $20.5 million under the cap.

Now I cut 4 players in Mitchell, Gay, Wilcox and Sensabaugh and I restructured two players in Haden and McDonald and we are $20.5 million under the cap.

When you are given a big contract, are one of their core players, the Steeler restructure your contract, that is the way they do business. So, with that in mind, Big Al could very well see his contract restructured for 2018.
He is due a roster bonus of $3 million and has a base salary of $3 million and has a cap hit of $7.625 million. Now, in 2015 Marcus Gilbert had a base salary of $1.9 million and a roster bonus due to him of $3.5 million. The Steelers restructured that to where they took $1.15 million of his base and all of his roster bonus of $3.5 and paid it to him as a signing bonus. That $4.65 million was prorated over the remainder of his contract but it freed up money.

The Steelers could do the same with Alejandro. Convert all of that roster bonus $3 million and say, $2 million of his base salary, give him a $5 million signing bonus and reduce his cap hit from $7.625 million down to $4.29 million, a savings of $3.33 million.

So, $20.5 + 3.33 = $23.833 million

Now that is more than enough money to sign Bell to another franchise tender, sign our own restricted free agents, tender them, etc, and factor in the money needed for the draft picks. It will be tight but Omar Khan and company do this every year. Another candidate to restructure is Stephon Tuitt, he has a combined base and roster bonus of some $11 million in 2018, they could pay him a signing bonus and easily free up $4-5 million too.

Also, I have a feeling that the NFL will give us an exemption if Ryan can't play again and we pay him the 5th year option regardless. I think the NFL will give us some relief on that and that $8.7 million will not count against the cap. We could very well be $32.5 million under the cap if that were to happen.

This is just me guesstimating and speculating on how things might happen in the offseason. I pay attention to what they do and how they do it, all of the above is what they have shown to do in years past.


Dude... For not being worried about the cap at all, that's a lot of verbage.


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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:32 pm 
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seabs926 wrote:
SP wrote:
Shazier going exempt and cutting Mitchell and Wilcox frees up $18 million.

16.843 (8.718 + 5 + 3.125), but close enough.

I think some of the other tough calls will be on Boz, Chickillo, and Rogers, all of which are RFAs. Boz deserves a long term deal, which would likely bring a lower cap hit in year 1 than the lowest RFA tender. Chickillo and Rogers haven't done enough to warrant the money of even the lowest RFA tender (close to 2M). They would either need new deals or become UFAs.


I had Mitchell as a $6.3 million cap savings if cut. Not sure who is wrong. .


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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:52 pm 
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I think he's giving an in-depth, informative look at why he's not worried, dude.

Thanks, Scunge, great work as usual.


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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:38 pm 
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Scunge, that is the best guesstimate I have ever read. Excellent work, and not too much verbiage. :D


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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:17 pm 
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SP wrote:
seabs926 wrote:
SP wrote:
Shazier going exempt and cutting Mitchell and Wilcox frees up $18 million.

16.843 (8.718 + 5 + 3.125), but close enough.

I think some of the other tough calls will be on Boz, Chickillo, and Rogers, all of which are RFAs. Boz deserves a long term deal, which would likely bring a lower cap hit in year 1 than the lowest RFA tender. Chickillo and Rogers haven't done enough to warrant the money of even the lowest RFA tender (close to 2M). They would either need new deals or become UFAs.


I had Mitchell as a $6.3 million cap savings if cut. Not sure who is wrong. .


I think you’re right since you use Colbert as your avatar

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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:07 pm 
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SP, the reason why we save only $5 million is because he is entering his last year of his contract and that is all that is remaining, his base salary of $5 million.

It looks like they restructured his contract twice and so that is prorated over the length of his contract, in addition to the prorated portion of his original signing bonus.

Mike had a $4.75 million signing bonus originally, so you spread that out over 5 years so that comes to $950,000

His restructured pro rated amount is $2,185,418.

That is money that has been paid to him but is on the books regardless of whether or not we cut him or not, it is not going anywhere, you have to pay the piper on that.

So, yeah, Mike Mitchell has a cap hit of $8,135,418, which breaks down to a $5 million base salary and the prorated portions of his signing bonus and restructured bonus combining for $3,135,418.

They can only cut him and get out from under paying that $5 million base salary.

Now, they could extend him, add years to his current contract, and then convert some or all of his base salary for 2018 into a bonus and spread that out over the remainder of his new contract. But, lord I hope they don't do that, he needs to go.

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 Post subject: Re: Changes you make to the 2018 Roster and why
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 10:48 pm 
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If we do indeed cut Wilcox, Mitchell, Gay, and Sensenbaugh, we will need to draft several DBs. I think it would be unlikely Mitchell goes. This FO wont turn over a secondary that drastically.

What is more likely is Wilcox goes, and Gay becomes a dime safety, Allen moves up off rhe practice squad, and a you g safety is brought in to be groomed to replace Mitchell in 2019.

Ill just assume we figure out a way to get Bell back for at least one more year. Hubbard leaves for more money. Moats is history. We draft one more back in the later rounds to fill the receoving back role in the offense as a backup.

Now the main change I would make to this roster is going to sound a little drastic, but if we can bring in a pair of true 270 pound defensive ends in rounds 1-4 insteadof drafting an ILB to replace Shazier.

I think those two moves cemet us as a 4-3 base.

RE - high pick, Chickillo, Keion Adams
1 tech - Hargrave, Alualu
3 tech - Heyward, Walton, late pick
LE - Tuitt, mid pick
ROLB - Watt, Fort
MLB - Vwill, Matakevich
LOLB - Dupree, bargain FA
CB - Haden, Burns, Allen
Nickel - Hilton, Sutton
Ss - Davis, Gay
Fs - Mitchell, High pick

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