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 Post subject: Player Analytics
PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2016 8:02 am 
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Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2014 8:57 pm
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Sack Seer - Predicting the # of sacks for a player after 5 years in the NFL. A B2B fav gets decent ratings.

James Cowser, Southern Utah

SackSEER Projection: 12.8 Sacks through Year 5
SackSEER Rating: 84.2%

One of SackSEER's lessons is that small-school players are often severely underrated. Players such as Jared Allen and Robert Mathis dropped to the second half of the draft despite dominant college careers, largely due to concerns regarding the strength of their competition. In the 2016 NFL draft, the most likely edge rusher to enter the ranks of small-school prospect-turned-star is James Cowser. Cowser was dominant for Southern Utah. He made an immediate impact for the Thunderbirds, recording 7.5 sacks in 11 games as a freshman, and after that, recorded double-digit sacks in three consecutive years. Cowser's explosion index is on the low side, but he had the quickest 3-cone time of any edge rusher invited to the combine. Projected draft position suggests that it is still unlikely that Cowser will have an impact in the NFL. However, he has considerably more upside than any other edge rusher who is likely to be available after the third round.


Matt Richter report This is more an an analysis of current players and production in college to try and determine best picks for the draft.

In going through the complete list of 148 players, the elite pass rushers in NFL Historyhave come from players who produced at a high level in college. A pass rusher who has shown the ability to produce a high,consistent level should be given consideration over a player who has yet to play at a proven,consistent level. Below are the recommended benchmarks pass rushers should achieve while in college. These benchmarks should only be applied to players whose main responsibility was that of a pass rusher in college.Here arethe following recommendations when selecting the next premier pass rusher.

First,any player who has achieved at the very least 23 career sacks in college, preferably anything higher than 26 is optimal, should be given careful consideration. I would recommend a bottom baseline of 18 career sacks for any player to be considered for a first or second round draft selection. An 18 sack minimum would include 91 players from this study that at least met or exceeded the minimum standard. These benchmarks should only be applied to players whosemain responsibility was a pass rusher in college.

Secondly, any player who achieves at least 16 sacks in a single season should definitely be given a closer review. A single sack minimum of at least 10 sacks should be achieved. Anything less for a high round draft choice and teams run a higher risk of selecting a player who will turn out to be a draft bust. 70% of the players in this study achieved at least 10 sacks in a single season.

Third, any player who has achieved at least 50 TFL throughout their college careers stands in some pretty impressive company when looking through this list. Only 33 of the 131 players have achieved 50 or more TFL in their college careers.

Fourthly, when looking at players who did not achieve these benchmarks yet have gone on to have success in the NFL,there area few reasonable explanations:
(player played LB and was not asked to rush the pass, player played DT and was asked to occupy blockers, etc.)

The one constant in each of these players is they are usually characterized with a high motor, a high football IQ, they’re relentless, and they’re hard workers

To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection.
- Henri Poincaré

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