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 Post subject: Outstanding Article On Scouting The Draft & Why We Miss
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 10:38 am 
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https://theringer.com/2017-nfl-draft-biggest-misses-scouts-executives-9b7afdd89a7e
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The hard part isn’t grading what a prospect has done in college. It’s using that performance to determine what they’re capable of in the NFL.
“You’re supposed to be looking for what the tape says they can become,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein told me. “The biggest mistake an evaluator can make is assuming that whoever the player is in college is who they’re going to be in the pros.”


Since he became such a different player after he went from college to the NFL, Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell was a frequently cited miss for the evaluators I spoke to.

Le’Veon Bell (Getty Images)
“Bell was a little bit bigger [at Michigan State] than what he’s playing at now, and he showed a really good level of athletic ability on the field,” said former Giants, Jets, and Eagles scout Dan Hatman, who’s now director of scouting development at The Scouting Academy. “But he wanted to take everything to the outside, get in space, and hurdle people. And one of my notes was, I didn’t know if you could trust him to play in the A and the B gaps. And he’s proven me wrong on that.”
Bell has exceeded every expectation in the passing game too. The guy who caught 32 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown his junior year has developed into the standard for the new breed of hybrid running back–receivers in the NFL.
“As far as his receiving skills,” said Hatman, “you didn’t necessarily turn on the film and say, ‘Huh, we could align this guy all over the field and do all kinds of stuff with him.’ That’s the beauty of coaching. Coaches see their guy start to execute and say, ‘Wow, he’s really good at this!’”
“I was not a fan of Bell’s game,” CBS Sports’ Dane Brugler told me. “I thought he took too long to survey the field. NFL fans know him for his amazing patience, but at the college level, there was a lot of times where he would survey the field and teams would be on top of him by the time he figured out where he needed to go.”
The lesson?
“Because of that, I think I am a lot more open-minded to players who might look a little indecisive at the line of scrimmage,” said Brugler. “But it’s a fine line between indecisive and being patient. I think that’s kind of a constant battle when you evaluate running backs: to figure out where’s the happy medium.”

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 Post subject: Re: Outstanding Article On Scouting The Draft & Why We Miss
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:22 pm 
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Quote:
The hard part isn’t grading what a prospect has done in college. It’s using that performance to determine what they’re capable of in the NFL.“You’re supposed to be looking for what the tape says they can become,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein told me. “The biggest mistake an evaluator can make is assuming that whoever the player is in college is who they’re going to be in the pros.”



Lance Zierlein? Dane Bruglar? I understand and generally agree with the premise of the article but their credibility is sorely lacking. Can't stand Zierlein. Must be a personality thing. Can't stand it when he's on Path to the Draft.

Let's use some HOF credentials. Tony Dungy said he always deferred to the Chuck Noll belief that if you saw a player succeed in college, he would also be successful in the pros.

Case in point with Noll. He said he LOVED Rod Woodson. Said he was his early Christmas present. Obviously the perfect storm of athletic ability and college production and an easy projection. How about Jack Lambert? Ultra productive at Kent right? Noll ignored his size limitations and put him right in the middle of his defense based on what he saw from Lambert in college. Countless examples throughout of the history of football of booms and busts that's what makes the draft so entertaining. "It's not an exact science."


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 Post subject: Re: Outstanding Article On Scouting The Draft & Why We Miss
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:36 pm 
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SteelDrama wrote:
Quote:
The hard part isn’t grading what a prospect has done in college. It’s using that performance to determine what they’re capable of in the NFL.“You’re supposed to be looking for what the tape says they can become,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein told me. “The biggest mistake an evaluator can make is assuming that whoever the player is in college is who they’re going to be in the pros.”



Lance Zierlein? Dane Bruglar? I understand and generally agree with the premise of the article but their credibility is sorely lacking. Can't stand Zierlein. Must be a personality thing. Can't stand it when he's on Path to the Draft.

Let's use some HOF credentials. Tony Dungy said he always deferred to the Chuck Noll belief that if you saw a player succeed in college, he would also be successful in the pros.

Case in point with Noll. He said he LOVED Rod Woodson. Said he was his early Christmas present. Obviously the perfect storm of athletic ability and college production and an easy projection. How about Jack Lambert? Ultra productive at Kent right? Noll ignored his size limitations and put him right in the middle of his defense based on what he saw from Lambert in college. Countless examples throughout of the history of football of booms and busts that's what makes the draft so entertaining. "It's not an exact science."

Lambert loved football-- to me, that's the number one trump card the guy had. I agree that the people interviewed hurt the credibility.

I think Zierlein on OL is the best of the high profile writers (which makes sense). Without question. Not perfect, but he understands what he's looking for, especially in developmental prospects. He is annoying, though.

Drama, take a look back at the players who had these kinds of picayune character/personality/failed test stuff predraft. Not all have failed, but it does seem to have some correlation to disappointment.

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 Post subject: Re: Outstanding Article On Scouting The Draft & Why We Miss
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 1:51 pm 
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Quote:
The hard part isn’t grading what a prospect has done in college. It’s using that performance to determine what they’re capable of in the NFL.“You’re supposed to be looking for what the tape says they can become,” NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein told me. “The biggest mistake an evaluator can make is assuming that whoever the player is in college is who they’re going to be in the pros.”


Scouting is NOT a science. Draftniks do not exist. Draft Gurus do not exist.

Information is free and at hand.

Steelers fans who love the draft and love the Steelers understand the Steelers needs better than the so called experts.

Which brings up another thing....How the fuck do the experts know what coaching staffs are going to do? The Steelers coverage schemes could be changing...Do the experts account for that? What about a player stashed on the practice squad like Willie Parker Michael Bennett or Kerry Hyder?

The perfect example for the point Zeirlein is attempting to make.

The Steelers’ 2013 draftees include linebacker Jarvis Jones (1st round, 17th overall), running back Le’Veon Bell (2nd, 48th), wide receiver Markus Wheaton (3rd, 79th), safety Shamarko Thomas (4th a, 111th), quarterback Landry Jones (4th b, 115th), cornerback Terry Hawthorne (5th, 150th), wide receiver Justin Brown (6th a, 186th), linebacker Vince Williams (6th b, 206th) and defensive end Nicholas Williams (7th, 223rd).

The Steelers bought into the production at UGA and USC with Jones. They missed.
Bell would be a top 5 pick in a re-draft
Wheaton love him or hate him...Out performed his draft slot. Same thing with Vince Williams.

Misses happen...The infuriating thing is when players you know are going to be solid fall and end up on other teams.

Week away...

Expect chaos at the draft...Players will fall...Hearts will break. I will bitch....Thats the NFL draft.

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 Post subject: Re: Outstanding Article On Scouting The Draft & Why We Miss
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Quote:
Misses happen...The infuriating thing is when players you know are going to be solid fall and end up on other teams.

Week away...

Expect chaos at the draft...Players will fall...Hearts will break. I will bitch....Thats the NFL draft.

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