It is currently Tue Dec 12, 2017 9:30 pm

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 77 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:28 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:24 am
Posts: 2932
Jeemie wrote:
Lifelongsteel wrote:
Jeemie wrote:
I don't know how Barnwell is thinking a tie was closer to a loss than a win for Denver so that Kubiak should invite any chances of a loss into the equation.

A tie keeps the Broncos tied with the Chiefs for a wildcard and ahead of the Dolphins. Now they trail both of them.

A tie means if Denver can make up the two games on Oakland, it doesn't have to rely on tiebreakers to get the division. Gaining those two games puts Denver in front of Oakland.

There is absolutely no way a tie was closer to a loss for them than a win.


you may be right. which is why the title of this thread is total bullshit. this was a tough call with a ton of variables, none of which were easy to value correctly, especially in real time. any of the 3 choices available to Kubiak are defensible.

calling him a dumbfuck for choosing to kick is ridiculous.


Are you saying Kubiak wouldn't be able to figure out what record his team, the Chiefs, and the Raiders all have in 30 seconds?

I have to disagree with you there.


I'm sure he could figure out that if he lost or tied he's probably not winning the division. In regards to wildcard, there's no chance he could factor in the value of the three outcomes related to his chances.

_________________
#IDrinkandIKnowThings


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:33 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:34 pm
Posts: 20634
Lifelongsteel wrote:
I'm sure he could figure out that if he lost or tied he's probably not winning the division.


Except this is not true...it's quite possible the Broncos could win two more games than the Raiders over the final five games.

And that's all they'd have to do- wouldn't have to even think about tiebreakers- just win two more games than Oakland.

_________________
Bill Walsh: “Your ability to make good judgments is much easier on Thursday night than during the heat of the game."

R S: "All praise MJG. Fuck the NUT!"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 3:42 pm 
Online

Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:52 pm
Posts: 6173
Lifelongsteel wrote:
Jeemie wrote:
I don't know how Barnwell is thinking a tie was closer to a loss than a win for Denver so that Kubiak should invite any chances of a loss into the equation.

A tie keeps the Broncos tied with the Chiefs for a wildcard and ahead of the Dolphins. Now they trail both of them.

A tie means if Denver can make up the two games on Oakland, it doesn't have to rely on tiebreakers to get the division. Gaining those two games puts Denver in front of Oakland.

There is absolutely no way a tie was closer to a loss for them than a win.


you may be right. which is why the title of this thread is total bullshit. this was a tough call with a ton of variables, none of which were easy to value correctly, especially in real time. any of the 3 choices available to Kubiak are defensible.

calling him a dumbfuck for choosing to kick is ridiculous.


Hmmm.....it took me much less than 30 seconds to make the assessment that Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck for making this call.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:01 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2014 12:24 am
Posts: 2932
swissvale72 wrote:

Hmmm.....it took me much less than 30 seconds to make the assessment that Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck for making this call.


Yep. You and Skip Bayless were all over this one. #hottakes

_________________
#IDrinkandIKnowThings


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:16 pm 
Offline

Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:12 pm
Posts: 464
Jeemie wrote:
Lifelongsteel wrote:
I'm sure he could figure out that if he lost or tied he's probably not winning the division.


Except this is not true...it's quite possible the Broncos could win two more games than the Raiders over the final five games.

And that's all they'd have to do- wouldn't have to even think about tiebreakers- just win two more games than Oakland.

1. You know what "probably" means, right?

2. Yes, the numbers are estimates with assumptions built in. No one claims otherwise. The point is that they're reasonable numbers, given what can be known about the situation, and they indicate what Lifelong, Barnwell and I all have already said: Not that Kubiak was definitely right, but that his choice was reasonable.

3. If the Broncos value a bye highly enough, then a tie really is closer to a loss than a win. A bye is two games to the Super Bowl, with one guaranteed at home. A wild card is likely three games on the road. The Broncos are historically a very strong home team in the regular season and the playoffs, including last year, where they probably would have lost to Pittsburgh or New England, whichever, if they weren't in Denver.

4. Come to think of it, the decision of how valuable a tie is can be made during the overtime break, or even before. In this case, all the relevant game results for the week were in.

5. What's funny is, the game would have ended in a tie anyhow if the kick had been one inch to the left.

_________________
“They who have put out the people’s eyes reproach them of their blindness.”
— John Milton


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 5:50 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:34 pm
Posts: 20634
Steel Drummer wrote:
Jeemie wrote:
Lifelongsteel wrote:
I'm sure he could figure out that if he lost or tied he's probably not winning the division.


Except this is not true...it's quite possible the Broncos could win two more games than the Raiders over the final five games.

And that's all they'd have to do- wouldn't have to even think about tiebreakers- just win two more games than Oakland.

1. You know what "probably" means, right?

2. Yes, the numbers are estimates with assumptions built in. No one claims otherwise. The point is that they're reasonable numbers, given what can be known about the situation, and they indicate what Lifelong, Barnwell and I all have already said: Not that Kubiak was definitely right, but that his choice was reasonable.

3. If the Broncos value a bye highly enough, then a tie really is closer to a loss than a win. A bye is two games to the Super Bowl, with one guaranteed at home. A wild card is likely three games on the road. The Broncos are historically a very strong home team in the regular season and the playoffs, including last year, where they probably would have lost to Pittsburgh or New England, whichever, if they weren't in Denver.

4. Come to think of it, the decision of how valuable a tie is can be made during the overtime break, or even before. In this case, all the relevant game results for the week were in.

5. What's funny is, the game would have ended in a tie anyhow if the kick had been one inch to the left.


You're still mistaken...if the Broncos win the West, they likely get the #2 seed.

And the tie is not much worse than the win and much better than the loss for winning the division.

_________________
Bill Walsh: “Your ability to make good judgments is much easier on Thursday night than during the heat of the game."

R S: "All praise MJG. Fuck the NUT!"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Nov 29, 2016 6:29 pm 
Offline

Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:12 pm
Posts: 464
Jeemie wrote:
You're still mistaken...if the Broncos win the West, they likely get the #2 seed.

And the tie is not much worse than the win and much better than the loss for winning the division.

Okay, I'll bite. Did they change it so the #2 seed doesn't get a bye and one guaranteed home game anymore?

And I certainly disagree with your valuation of the tie. But whatever, I think it's more than clear that Kubiak had plenty to think about and made a reasonable decision.

Still think it's funny, though, that with all those factors we came within a couple centimeters of getting a tie anyway.

_________________
“They who have put out the people’s eyes reproach them of their blindness.”
— John Milton


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 7:20 am 
Online

Joined: Tue Aug 05, 2014 9:52 pm
Posts: 6173
Lifelongsteel wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:

My guess, Lifelong, and it's only a guess, is that there's a ton of subjectivity in the supposedly objective analysis tools cited by Barnwell.

And McManus's field goals against us last January? Wasn't like it was a Justin Tucker performance. He hit from 28, 41, 41, 45, 51......Four of the five he absolutely should make, the fifth, most kickers are at least 50-50 to make. Nothing in that performance should make us think he'll hit from 62.


Some of these kickers today, including McManus can reach 60 yards with no problem. The analyst that Barnwell builds his probabilities on gave McManus a 41% chance of making the kick. Seems completely plausible to me. The reason it's that low has more to do with keeping the kick straight and not getting it blocked than on leg strength. Re: the kicks against the steelers, i mention them because the longer ones cleared the bar with so much distance to spare that to my eye they would have been good from 60.

The reason the attempts aren't more common is that the risk reward makes them suitable for only a few specific game situations.


As you know, Lifelong, Biiiiig difference between making a 45 yarder that would have been good from 60 vs. actually making that 60 yarder.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 8:57 am 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2014 9:34 pm
Posts: 20634
Steel Drummer wrote:
Jeemie wrote:
You're still mistaken...if the Broncos win the West, they likely get the #2 seed.

And the tie is not much worse than the win and much better than the loss for winning the division.

Okay, I'll bite. Did they change it so the #2 seed doesn't get a bye and one guaranteed home game anymore?

And I certainly disagree with your valuation of the tie. But whatever, I think it's more than clear that Kubiak had plenty to think about and made a reasonable decision.

Still think it's funny, though, that with all those factors we came within a couple centimeters of getting a tie anyway.


Yes, they still get the bye with a number two seed.

And my valuation that the tie is closer to a win than a loss is that with the loss, the Broncos have to finish three wins better over the last five v the Raiders, and/or one better than the Dolphins/Chiefs because of tiebreakers. But with a tie, all they would have had to do is finish two better over the last five and beat the Chiefs in their rematch. Not easy, but if they were to have done it, they wouldn't have had to worry about any tiebreakers.

We can argue over the odds of making a 62-yard FG in Denver's thin air, but what we can't argue is that by going for it, Denver significantly increased their chances of LOSING the game, which makes their path to the playoffs infinitely more challenging.

I submit a tie was close enough to a win that introducing significantly increased odds of losing was not the right choice...and Kubiak should have been able to figure that out in 30 seconds.

_________________
Bill Walsh: “Your ability to make good judgments is much easier on Thursday night than during the heat of the game."

R S: "All praise MJG. Fuck the NUT!"


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2016 11:13 am 
Offline

Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2014 10:12 pm
Posts: 464
Jeemie wrote:
Yes, they still get the bye with a number two seed.

And my valuation that the tie is closer to a win than a loss is that with the loss, the Broncos have to finish three wins better over the last five v the Raiders, and/or one better than the Dolphins/Chiefs because of tiebreakers. But with a tie, all they would have had to do is finish two better over the last five and beat the Chiefs in their rematch. Not easy, but if they were to have done it, they wouldn't have had to worry about any tiebreakers.

We can argue over the odds of making a 62-yard FG in Denver's thin air, but what we can't argue is that by going for it, Denver significantly increased their chances of LOSING the game, which makes their path to the playoffs infinitely more challenging.

I submit a tie was close enough to a win that introducing significantly increased odds of losing was not the right choice...and Kubiak should have been able to figure that out in 30 seconds.

In your second paragraph, you are only comparing a tie to a loss. I think we already knew that a loss was worse than a tie.

By trying the FG, Denver also significantly increased their chances of winning the game, which were nil if they punted. That needs to be in the equation also. If they win, they are a game ahead of KC, with a home game against Oakland and another game against KC still to come. I honestly don’t know how that changes the percentages with regard to the playoffs, and I'm not going to spend the time to try and figure it out; it’s only my guess that it makes a tie closer to a loss. There’s no way Kubiak or anyone else is going to weigh all those factors in 30 seconds.

But Denver might have already figured it out. Weighing a tie versus a win or loss is something you can do before the game, or over the overtime break. They have an analyst in the booth, according to Barnwell.

Anyhow, that’s my last word on this. The subject grows tiresome even for this nerd.

_________________
“They who have put out the people’s eyes reproach them of their blindness.”
— John Milton


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 77 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

All times are UTC - 5 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Yahoo [Bot] and 3 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum

Search for:
FORUM RULES --- PRIVACY POLICY




Powered by phpBB © 2000, 2002, 2005, 2007 phpBB Group