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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2016 9:51 pm 
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Anyone still wanting to defend Kubiak, now that the Doncos not making playoffs because of his dumbfuckery is a very real possibility?


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:00 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
Anyone still wanting to defend Kubiak, now that the Doncos not making playoffs because of his dumbfuckery is a very real possibility?

He's probably not making the playoffs because his team isn't good enough.

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2016 10:16 pm 
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Location: Sunny Delaware (but the murdery part)
But, without a franchise QB...


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2016 11:14 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
Anyone still wanting to defend Kubiak, now that the Doncos not making playoffs because of his dumbfuckery is a very real possibility?

He's probably not making the playoffs because his team isn't good enough.


More likely....because his team will have an additional loss instead of a tie.


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:02 am 
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swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
Anyone still wanting to defend Kubiak, now that the Doncos not making playoffs because of his dumbfuckery is a very real possibility?

He's probably not making the playoffs because his team isn't good enough.


More likely....because his team will have an additional loss instead of a tie.

I think they're headed to 8-8... and it won't matter if they would have been 8-7-1

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:05 am 
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i'd like to see them go 10-6

help us get that 2 seed

(pipe dreams...)

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:24 am 
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swissvale72 wrote:
More likely....because his team will have an additional loss instead of a tie.

We already knew they had an additional loss instead of a tie when the matter was brought up in the first place. And we already knew that the loss had hurt their playoff chances. The point is it was a reasonable decision to go for a possible bye instead of three games on the road as a wildcard. Especially for the Doncos, who were a better team last year and still needed every inch of their home field against both the Steelers and the Patriots. A team that just won the Super Bowl and is 8-3 is going for it, not angling for a tie and a fucking wild card.

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:33 am 
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Steel Drummer wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
More likely....because his team will have an additional loss instead of a tie.

We already knew they had an additional loss instead of a tie when the matter was brought up in the first place. And we already knew that the loss had hurt their playoff chances. The point is it was a reasonable decision to go for a possible bye instead of three games on the road as a wildcard. Especially for the Doncos, who were a better team last year and still needed every inch of their home field against both the Steelers and the Patriots. A team that just won the Super Bowl and is 8-3 is going for it, not angling for a tie and a fucking wild card.

But, see, this is Swiss's MO for SBI or any team's chances: improve your chances for a playoff spot first, then division, then seed, then bye, then homefield. (there are some exceptions, like, regarding New England, you assume they will get a bye no matter what you do; don't count on them losing) So, of course, to Swiss's philosophy on these things, playing it safe for a playoff spot trumps going for the win.

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 12:40 am 
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I get that, and there's an argument for it. I just don't agree in this case.

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 3:57 am 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
Steel Drummer wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
More likely....because his team will have an additional loss instead of a tie.

We already knew they had an additional loss instead of a tie when the matter was brought up in the first place. And we already knew that the loss had hurt their playoff chances. The point is it was a reasonable decision to go for a possible bye instead of three games on the road as a wildcard. Especially for the Doncos, who were a better team last year and still needed every inch of their home field against both the Steelers and the Patriots. A team that just won the Super Bowl and is 8-3 is going for it, not angling for a tie and a fucking wild card.

But, see, this is Swiss's MO for SBI or any team's chances: improve your chances for a playoff spot first, then division, then seed, then bye, then homefield. (there are some exceptions, like, regarding New England, you assume they will get a bye no matter what you do; don't count on them losing) So, of course, to Swiss's philosophy on these things, playing it safe for a playoff spot trumps going for the win.


Where we really disagree, B2B & Drummer, is on our assessment of the likelihood that McManus would hit from 62. I thought it was a VERY low percentage kick....regardless of what the guy was making in warmups, or that he was 5 for 5 against us in the playoffs last year (longest then was 51).

I thought it was a longshot to make the kick and win. Conversely, with a miss, I thought, the chances of losing were very high.

I thought Kubiak's decision was somewhat suicidal.

And yes, may all be moot in the end should Doncos collapse and end season with 4 straight losses.


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 11:18 am 
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The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:18 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.


Check your math, B2B.....
*Combine VERY high likelihood that McManus misses from 62 with....
*KC then needing to move the 15 yards for a very makeable 50 yard kick

Chances of winning vs. losing weren't exactly even as you're suggesting.


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:36 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.


Check your math, B2B.....
*Combine VERY high likelihood that McManus misses from 62 with....
*KC then needing to move the 15 yards for a very makeable 50 yard kick

Chances of winning vs. losing weren't exactly even as you're suggesting.




Count me on Swiss' side, dumbfuck move then, even a dumberfuck move in hindsight. Period.


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:51 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.


Check your math, B2B.....
*Combine VERY high likelihood that McManus misses from 62 with....
*KC then needing to move the 15 yards for a very makeable 50 yard kick

Chances of winning vs. losing weren't exactly even as you're suggesting.

that 62 yarder has been sussed out at basically a 25% chance or better for that guy, in that stadium, in those conditions-- bear in mind that the HC just saw him kick it good from that distance on that night and saw his previous FG attmept where it likely would have been good from that distance (vs Tomlin knowing that his kicker has almost never made a kick over 50 yd, e.g.). The chances of KC getting the 15 yards AND converting a 50-55% makeable FG are almost exactly 25%. I think the percentages are broken out were about 25% win with kick 20% win with go for it 30% lose with missed FG, meaning it was better than 50/50 to lose... but not by much. My Denver fan friend tells me he was unhappy to see the kicker out there but he wanted them to go for the 1st down.

IF Kubiak hadn't seen his kicker make that kick on numerous occasions and IF they weren't playing in Denver... going for the 1st down is definitely the right play. With all the conditions and particulars involved, kicking or not kicking were about the same to me. If you have a 25% shot to win and a 30% chance of losing if you miss it... I'd go for that.

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:06 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
that 62 yarder has been sussed out at basically a 25% chance or better for that guy, in that stadium, in those conditions-- bear in mind that the HC just saw him kick it good from that distance on that night and saw his previous FG attmept where it likely would have been good from that distance (vs Tomlin knowing that his kicker has almost never made a kick over 50 yd, e.g.). The chances of KC getting the 15 yards AND converting a 50-55% makeable FG are almost exactly 25%. I think the percentages are broken out were about 25% win with kick 20% win with go for it 30% lose with missed FG, meaning it was better than 50/50 to lose... but not by much. My Denver fan friend tells me he was unhappy to see the kicker out there but he wanted them to go for the 1st down.

IF Kubiak hadn't seen his kicker make that kick on numerous occasions and IF they weren't playing in Denver... going for the 1st down is definitely the right play. With all the conditions and particulars involved, kicking or not kicking were about the same to me. If you have a 25% shot to win and a 30% chance of losing if you miss it... I'd go for that.

B2B if you could please show your work for these solves that'd be great, MMMKAAY

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:08 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.


Check your math, B2B.....
*Combine VERY high likelihood that McManus misses from 62 with....
*KC then needing to move the 15 yards for a very makeable 50 yard kick

Chances of winning vs. losing weren't exactly even as you're suggesting.

that 62 yarder has been sussed out at basically a 25% chance or better for that guy, in that stadium, in those conditions-- bear in mind that the HC just saw him kick it good from that distance on that night and saw his previous FG attmept where it likely would have been good from that distance (vs Tomlin knowing that his kicker has almost never made a kick over 50 yd, e.g.). The chances of KC getting the 15 yards AND converting a 50-55% makeable FG are almost exactly 25%. I think the percentages are broken out were about 25% win with kick 20% win with go for it 30% lose with missed FG, meaning it was better than 50/50 to lose... but not by much. My Denver fan friend tells me he was unhappy to see the kicker out there but he wanted them to go for the 1st down.

IF Kubiak hadn't seen his kicker make that kick on numerous occasions and IF they weren't playing in Denver... going for the 1st down is definitely the right play. With all the conditions and particulars involved, kicking or not kicking were about the same to me. If you have a 25% shot to win and a 30% chance of losing if you miss it... I'd go for that.


This is the B2B version of Voodoo Economics. Few things....
*Kubiak had seen his kicker make that kick on numerous occasions???
-Practice doesn't count
-Warmups don't count
-Making a 45 yarder with 15 yards to spare doesn't count
Facts are hard things to ignore, and fact is, that dude had NEVER made a kick from that distance

*50/50 on KC driving 15 yards and making a 50-yarder? Maybe. Fact is, KC drove about 35 yards and kicked a 30 yarder.....doinked it in but made it. FACT is, the Dumbfuck Kubiak put KC into a VERY favorable position to win the game...and as soon as McManus missed that kick, everyone at Mile High and home in TV land new it.


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:08 pm 
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don't have time to find it again, but at least three place online broke it down that week

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