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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 11:18 am 
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The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:18 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.


Check your math, B2B.....
*Combine VERY high likelihood that McManus misses from 62 with....
*KC then needing to move the 15 yards for a very makeable 50 yard kick

Chances of winning vs. losing weren't exactly even as you're suggesting.


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:36 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.


Check your math, B2B.....
*Combine VERY high likelihood that McManus misses from 62 with....
*KC then needing to move the 15 yards for a very makeable 50 yard kick

Chances of winning vs. losing weren't exactly even as you're suggesting.




Count me on Swiss' side, dumbfuck move then, even a dumberfuck move in hindsight. Period.


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 7:51 pm 
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swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.


Check your math, B2B.....
*Combine VERY high likelihood that McManus misses from 62 with....
*KC then needing to move the 15 yards for a very makeable 50 yard kick

Chances of winning vs. losing weren't exactly even as you're suggesting.

that 62 yarder has been sussed out at basically a 25% chance or better for that guy, in that stadium, in those conditions-- bear in mind that the HC just saw him kick it good from that distance on that night and saw his previous FG attmept where it likely would have been good from that distance (vs Tomlin knowing that his kicker has almost never made a kick over 50 yd, e.g.). The chances of KC getting the 15 yards AND converting a 50-55% makeable FG are almost exactly 25%. I think the percentages are broken out were about 25% win with kick 20% win with go for it 30% lose with missed FG, meaning it was better than 50/50 to lose... but not by much. My Denver fan friend tells me he was unhappy to see the kicker out there but he wanted them to go for the 1st down.

IF Kubiak hadn't seen his kicker make that kick on numerous occasions and IF they weren't playing in Denver... going for the 1st down is definitely the right play. With all the conditions and particulars involved, kicking or not kicking were about the same to me. If you have a 25% shot to win and a 30% chance of losing if you miss it... I'd go for that.

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:06 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
that 62 yarder has been sussed out at basically a 25% chance or better for that guy, in that stadium, in those conditions-- bear in mind that the HC just saw him kick it good from that distance on that night and saw his previous FG attmept where it likely would have been good from that distance (vs Tomlin knowing that his kicker has almost never made a kick over 50 yd, e.g.). The chances of KC getting the 15 yards AND converting a 50-55% makeable FG are almost exactly 25%. I think the percentages are broken out were about 25% win with kick 20% win with go for it 30% lose with missed FG, meaning it was better than 50/50 to lose... but not by much. My Denver fan friend tells me he was unhappy to see the kicker out there but he wanted them to go for the 1st down.

IF Kubiak hadn't seen his kicker make that kick on numerous occasions and IF they weren't playing in Denver... going for the 1st down is definitely the right play. With all the conditions and particulars involved, kicking or not kicking were about the same to me. If you have a 25% shot to win and a 30% chance of losing if you miss it... I'd go for that.

B2B if you could please show your work for these solves that'd be great, MMMKAAY

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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:08 pm 
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bradshaw2ben wrote:
swissvale72 wrote:
bradshaw2ben wrote:
The chances of winning or losing on that kick were about even, because the other team still has to get into FG range and make a lower percentage kick themselves. I think an accurate assessment would yield almost even results between winning or losing with a decision to kick or go for the first down.


Check your math, B2B.....
*Combine VERY high likelihood that McManus misses from 62 with....
*KC then needing to move the 15 yards for a very makeable 50 yard kick

Chances of winning vs. losing weren't exactly even as you're suggesting.

that 62 yarder has been sussed out at basically a 25% chance or better for that guy, in that stadium, in those conditions-- bear in mind that the HC just saw him kick it good from that distance on that night and saw his previous FG attmept where it likely would have been good from that distance (vs Tomlin knowing that his kicker has almost never made a kick over 50 yd, e.g.). The chances of KC getting the 15 yards AND converting a 50-55% makeable FG are almost exactly 25%. I think the percentages are broken out were about 25% win with kick 20% win with go for it 30% lose with missed FG, meaning it was better than 50/50 to lose... but not by much. My Denver fan friend tells me he was unhappy to see the kicker out there but he wanted them to go for the 1st down.

IF Kubiak hadn't seen his kicker make that kick on numerous occasions and IF they weren't playing in Denver... going for the 1st down is definitely the right play. With all the conditions and particulars involved, kicking or not kicking were about the same to me. If you have a 25% shot to win and a 30% chance of losing if you miss it... I'd go for that.


This is the B2B version of Voodoo Economics. Few things....
*Kubiak had seen his kicker make that kick on numerous occasions???
-Practice doesn't count
-Warmups don't count
-Making a 45 yarder with 15 yards to spare doesn't count
Facts are hard things to ignore, and fact is, that dude had NEVER made a kick from that distance

*50/50 on KC driving 15 yards and making a 50-yarder? Maybe. Fact is, KC drove about 35 yards and kicked a 30 yarder.....doinked it in but made it. FACT is, the Dumbfuck Kubiak put KC into a VERY favorable position to win the game...and as soon as McManus missed that kick, everyone at Mile High and home in TV land new it.


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 Post subject: Re: Gary Kubiak's a Dumbfuck
PostPosted: Wed Dec 14, 2016 8:08 pm 
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don't have time to find it again, but at least three place online broke it down that week

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