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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:02 pm 
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955876 wrote:
While Lit’s post was an extreme example, it’s not unreasonable.


This sort of thing has also been predicted many, many many times before with the advent of almost every new disruptive technology. I'm guilty of it, too, but the economy has continued to create previously un-imagined new industries and jobs.

And we already have a few different types of guaranteed income....there will just be more people receiving it.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:07 pm 
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Hope so. These issues are above my pay grade. I’m just trying to stash enough away over next 15-20 years so that I can retire comfortably.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:52 pm 
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955876 wrote:
While Lit’s post was an extreme example, it’s not unreasonable.

McDonalds CEO was answering questions in regards to the minimum wage issue and said they have the tech right now to run an entire restaurant with but 1-2 employees. And deliver a better product in the process.

Said the only reason they don’t is the public backlash they’d face after laying off a large % of their workforce.

Like most things, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle.

I worry myself if I can get another 20 years out of my job before I’m deemed unnecessary. I’m not even sure if it’s only 10 years.


13 years for me. I find getting deep knowledge of a system and the business helps keep you around. People coming out of college rarely if ever have deep knowledge and never of a business.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
955876 wrote:
While Lit’s post was an extreme example, it’s not unreasonable.


This sort of thing has also been predicted many, many many times before with the advent of almost every new disruptive technology. I'm guilty of it, too, but the economy has continued to create previously un-imagined new industries and jobs.

And we already have a few different types of guaranteed income....there will just be more people receiving it.


It's naive to think AI and automation are just an extension of the industrial revolution, though. What we are on the verge of is something different in kind, not degree.

Before, we needed humans to run the machines.

We're eventually going merely to be servicing them. The human mind is not going to be necessary for running the damn things, but only making sure they are serviced appropriately.

The fear is not that all or even a majority of jobs will go away. The fear is that a ginormous minority will. If you do not have enough jobs to go around bc machines are doing all the low skilled labor or financial stock picks :D , these people are going to have to be taken care of or there will be a revolt.

This a long ways off, but not really so long.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:04 pm 
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Might not be as far off as some think or want to believe.

Think if the trucking industry. Why pay a driver that’s forced to take regulated breaks and have a certain amount of down time when you can have a truck that drives all by itself essentially 24/7?

Lots of truckers out there earning decent money. Money their skill set might not be able to replicate if there were no more or far fewer trucking jobs.

Scary stuff.

Also why fast food workers need to be more focused on what they are going to do so they are no longer fast food workers rather than demanding a “living wage” for salt fries and mopping the floors.

The more expensive their labor becomes the sooner companies will replace those jobs with tech.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:27 pm 
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Still Lit wrote:
It's naive to think AI and automation are just an extension of the industrial revolution, though. What we are on the verge of is something different in kind, not degree.

Before, we needed humans to run the machines.


That same type of thinking and logic has been applied again and again, though. Possibly no phrase has been used more times in a wrong analysis/prediction than "this time it's different".

Spreadsheets put literally dozens of people out of work for every job created. Today, one analyst can do the work 40 did three decades ago. There are many more examples. Technology has always created new opportunities, and freed up the resources to pursue those new ideas such that it has never been a negative or zero sum game.

I'm not really disagreeing with what you're saying, just that I wouldn't be betting my money on "this time it's different".

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:33 pm 
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955876 wrote:
The more expensive their labor becomes the sooner companies will replace those jobs with tech.


If you want to take the argument to the extreme, who's to say AI advanced enough to take most jobs is actually going to want to do those jobs, and do them cheaply?

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:36 pm 
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Dunno.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:10 pm 
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Still Lit wrote:
It's a good thing Kodiak and 955876 will be dead when the federal law mandating a universal income is passed after the robots have replaced most human labor within the next 100 years.

Some of you think the Wealth of Nations and the Communist Manifesto are the polar documents of modernity. You're wrong. The real document of modernity is Descartes' Discourse. The goal of modernity is not to make money. The goal of modernity is to master and control nature for human benefit and, as Descartes puts it, free us up to do as we wish. If we think dishwashers and agricultural technology afforded us more leisure, we ain't seen nothing yet.

Capitalism vs Socialism is moot.

Automation is rapidly expanding. AI is coming. There will not be enough jobs to go around. Universal income is coming. Even the financial analyst will go by wayside when the algorithms and AI advance far enough.

Work has defined who we are in the West since the collapse of feudalism. That era is on the verge of ending.


I don't doubt this. But I also think it would lead to the downfall of human kind. What would 95% of the population do all day without any type of work? Look at the inner cities now. It would turn to chaos. I see why Musk is so afraid of AI. It won't be some Terminator like scenario on AI killing humans, it will be bored, unmotivated humans with no drive in life to better themselves either killing one another or eating and drinking themselves to death.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:42 pm 
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Lit wants chaos :P

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 8:12 pm 
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R S wrote:
Still Lit wrote:
It's a good thing Kodiak and 955876 will be dead when the federal law mandating a universal income is passed after the robots have replaced most human labor within the next 100 years.

Some of you think the Wealth of Nations and the Communist Manifesto are the polar documents of modernity. You're wrong. The real document of modernity is Descartes' Discourse. The goal of modernity is not to make money. The goal of modernity is to master and control nature for human benefit and, as Descartes puts it, free us up to do as we wish. If we think dishwashers and agricultural technology afforded us more leisure, we ain't seen nothing yet.

Capitalism vs Socialism is moot.

Automation is rapidly expanding. AI is coming. There will not be enough jobs to go around. Universal income is coming. Even the financial analyst will go by wayside when the algorithms and AI advance far enough.

Work has defined who we are in the West since the collapse of feudalism. That era is on the verge of ending.


I don't doubt this. But I also think it would lead to the downfall of human kind. What would 95% of the population do all day without any type of work? Look at the inner cities now. It would turn to chaos. I see why Musk is so afraid of AI. It won't be some Terminator like scenario on AI killing humans, it will be bored, unmotivated humans with no drive in life to better themselves either killing one another or eating and drinking themselves to death.


Stock up on guns & ammo now.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 12:15 am 
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BethlehemSteel wrote:
Lit wants chaos :P


As they say..."those who can, do....those who can't,teach"

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:16 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
BethlehemSteel wrote:
Lit wants chaos :P


As they say..."those who can, do....those who can't,teach"


As Aristotle says, those who suppose that thinking is not an activity least of all understand what it means to be engaged in activity. See his Politics, book seven, chapter iii. That's cute that you think that all university faculty do is teach.

Please let me know what you "do" for a living so I can belittle it. It will not be difficult.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 7:41 am 
955876 wrote:

Stock up on guns & ammo now.


So tell me something....

When you are attempting to traverse the Ayn Rand hellscape youve created how far are guns and ammo going to get you ?


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:40 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
:o :o :o
You must have reading comprehension issues. I never said they were "doing fine." I readily admitted at the time I did not even know since I've not looked into the financials. Your attempt to prove something is cute, disingenuous, and inaccurate. Nice try.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 11:14 am 
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SteelerChef wrote:
955876 wrote:

Stock up on guns & ammo now.


So tell me something....

When you are attempting to traverse the Ayn Rand hellscape youve created how far are guns and ammo going to get you ?


Better to have a gun and not need it than to need a gun and not have it.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:34 pm 
955876 wrote:
SteelerChef wrote:
955876 wrote:

Stock up on guns & ammo now.


So tell me something....

When you are attempting to traverse the Ayn Rand hellscape youve created how far are guns and ammo going to get you ?


Better to have a gun and not need it than to need a gun and not have it.


Thats not my question.

Your the one who referenced impending doom. How exactly are guns and ammo going to help that ?


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:39 pm 
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Depends on the type of doom.

And was I the one that referenced it? Don’t think so. Just made a comment to another post.

In any event, this is hardly worthy of debate.

I have my safe stocked with various items that could provide useful at some unknown point in time.

And if there is never a need all the better. Plus, these things don’t really depreciate so not a horrible allocation of some resources.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:02 pm 
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COR-TEN wrote:
Kodiak wrote:
:o :o :o
You must have reading comprehension issues. I never said they were "doing fine." I readily admitted at the time I did not even know since I've not looked into the financials. Your attempt to prove something is cute, disingenuous, and inaccurate. Nice try.


Nice duck and dodge. What you basically said was "show me the proof they aren't doing well", while admitting you never looked into it yourself. It's a passive aggressive way of arguing what you want to believe while trying to cover or excuse the fact you have no idea what you're talking about. So just lazy, Intellectually dishonest or intentionally ignorant....or did you hit the trifecta?

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 5:07 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
COR-TEN wrote:
Kodiak wrote:
:o :o :o
You must have reading comprehension issues. I never said they were "doing fine." I readily admitted at the time I did not even know since I've not looked into the financials. Your attempt to prove something is cute, disingenuous, and inaccurate. Nice try.


Nice duck and dodge. What you basically said was "show me the proof they aren't doing well", while admitting you never looked into it yourself. It's a passive aggressive way of arguing what you want to believe while trying to cover or excuse the fact you have no idea what you're talking about. So just lazy, Intellectually dishonest or intentionally ignorant....or did you hit the trifecta?
Yeah, uh huh. What I basically said? :lol: :lol:

Keep up the alternate reality. It's quite entertaining. Please don't stop. Keep digging yourself into a hole.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 6:27 pm 
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Speaking of ducks and dodges, I never did catch what you do for a living, Kodiak.

Do you mean to tell me that even with the anonymity of the internet you're such a giant pussy that you won't tell?

Say it ain't so.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:57 pm 
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It's getting quite bitchy in here. reeks of pussy

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 2:45 am 
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Still Lit wrote:
Speaking of ducks and dodges, I never did catch what you do for a living, Kodiak.

Do you mean to tell me that even with the anonymity of the internet you're such a giant pussy that you won't tell?

Say it ain't so.


I work in PE....not a pussy, just not an ignorant academic hiding behind my books.

I've never hidden my education nor what I do for a living, but I don't wear it on my sleeve because appeals to authority are the purview of lazy intellectuals.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 8:03 am 
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Kodiak wrote:
Still Lit wrote:
Speaking of ducks and dodges, I never did catch what you do for a living, Kodiak.

Do you mean to tell me that even with the anonymity of the internet you're such a giant pussy that you won't tell?

Say it ain't so.


I work in PE....not a pussy, just not an ignorant academic hiding behind my books.

I've never hidden my education nor what I do for a living, but I don't wear it on my sleeve because appeals to authority are the purview of lazy intellectuals.


Uh, there was a thread a long time ago asking what Fury readers do for a living. I said I taught liberal arts. Now people routinely bring it up. The idea that I wear what I do on my sleeve as some sort of authority marker is absurd. I tell my students that I am not some kind of infallible authority nor some kind of fount indespensible truth. I'll tell you now the same thing. Hell yes I'm ignorant. Which is why...

I like reading great books in the Western canon. I like thinking and writing about great books in the Western canon. For some strange reason, circumstances exist that I actually get paid to do what I would be doing in my free time. Even stranger circumstances have made it such that I get paid to read and reflect on these questions unencumbered from the end of May until the end of August every year. Can you imagine if you had nearly four months off a year with pay to do precisely what you love? And if you did, would you be spending that time doing PE? Which also shows you what you think of the value of the activity of PE for your own personal happiness.

For some strange reason, you think it is a sign of inability that someone would choose to spend their lives reading and thinking about people like Newton, Shakespeare, or Hegel as opposed to...

PE? Fine. In some capacity you exercise a skill that contributes to investment for profit, possibly involving research and analysis of targets for investment. (Work in PE is rather vague, of course.). You spend your waking, working life organized around the accumulation of capital via investment strategy.

And you think this a more worthy endeavor for yorself than spending your time reading and thinking about great books?

I never had any intention of making fun of what you do. That's a petty thing that a petty person does.

But I will say this. If I had to choose between spending my time thinking about Plato or Nozick or which companies to target for buyout or investment, I'm going to reach for the books every time. And for this you want to belittle me? That's weird.

p.s. If your firm is retained by a university for enriching its endowments, possibly even mine, I thank you for being an instrument of my happiness.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Sun Nov 05, 2017 11:54 am 
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I always thought PE was Phys. Ed....shows how much I know.

We do a couple things on this esteemed website:
-Talk Steeler football
-Gove each other shit

For all of the angst & bellyaching that goes on here about not wanting this place to turn into Stillers.com, it was Stillers.com that started this fine tradition of, for the most part, saying the fuck what we want, with the exception of when a particularly pacified colleague or two turn to the site's gendarmes, some of whom operate under cover (that would be YOU, B2B)....to admonish someone who called them a name ("sticks and stones"). It was on Stillers.com during the glorious off-season of 2006, with PEIS (Post-Euphoric Immersion Syndrome), that a number of What and Where Do You Asshats...threads were populated:
-What do you Asshats do for Work?
-What do you Asshats look like?
-Where do you Asshats live?
-How Old are you Asshats?
So...let's not be too quick to denigrate the old site, which is still up and running, not so popular, still headed by Mill, who once sent me a pic where I mistakenly took Hines Ward to be a member of his family.

Having said all that....good to see Lit is still unsurpassed with the level of Mumbo-Jumbo. Carry on, Professor.


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