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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:02 pm 
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955876 wrote:
While Lit’s post was an extreme example, it’s not unreasonable.


This sort of thing has also been predicted many, many many times before with the advent of almost every new disruptive technology. I'm guilty of it, too, but the economy has continued to create previously un-imagined new industries and jobs.

And we already have a few different types of guaranteed income....there will just be more people receiving it.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:07 pm 
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Hope so. These issues are above my pay grade. I’m just trying to stash enough away over next 15-20 years so that I can retire comfortably.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 1:52 pm 
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955876 wrote:
While Lit’s post was an extreme example, it’s not unreasonable.

McDonalds CEO was answering questions in regards to the minimum wage issue and said they have the tech right now to run an entire restaurant with but 1-2 employees. And deliver a better product in the process.

Said the only reason they don’t is the public backlash they’d face after laying off a large % of their workforce.

Like most things, the answer is likely somewhere in the middle.

I worry myself if I can get another 20 years out of my job before I’m deemed unnecessary. I’m not even sure if it’s only 10 years.


13 years for me. I find getting deep knowledge of a system and the business helps keep you around. People coming out of college rarely if ever have deep knowledge and never of a business.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Kodiak wrote:
955876 wrote:
While Lit’s post was an extreme example, it’s not unreasonable.


This sort of thing has also been predicted many, many many times before with the advent of almost every new disruptive technology. I'm guilty of it, too, but the economy has continued to create previously un-imagined new industries and jobs.

And we already have a few different types of guaranteed income....there will just be more people receiving it.


It's naive to think AI and automation are just an extension of the industrial revolution, though. What we are on the verge of is something different in kind, not degree.

Before, we needed humans to run the machines.

We're eventually going merely to be servicing them. The human mind is not going to be necessary for running the damn things, but only making sure they are serviced appropriately.

The fear is not that all or even a majority of jobs will go away. The fear is that a ginormous minority will. If you do not have enough jobs to go around bc machines are doing all the low skilled labor or financial stock picks :D , these people are going to have to be taken care of or there will be a revolt.

This a long ways off, but not really so long.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 5:04 pm 
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Might not be as far off as some think or want to believe.

Think if the trucking industry. Why pay a driver that’s forced to take regulated breaks and have a certain amount of down time when you can have a truck that drives all by itself essentially 24/7?

Lots of truckers out there earning decent money. Money their skill set might not be able to replicate if there were no more or far fewer trucking jobs.

Scary stuff.

Also why fast food workers need to be more focused on what they are going to do so they are no longer fast food workers rather than demanding a “living wage” for salt fries and mopping the floors.

The more expensive their labor becomes the sooner companies will replace those jobs with tech.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:27 pm 
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Still Lit wrote:
It's naive to think AI and automation are just an extension of the industrial revolution, though. What we are on the verge of is something different in kind, not degree.

Before, we needed humans to run the machines.


That same type of thinking and logic has been applied again and again, though. Possibly no phrase has been used more times in a wrong analysis/prediction than "this time it's different".

Spreadsheets put literally dozens of people out of work for every job created. Today, one analyst can do the work 40 did three decades ago. There are many more examples. Technology has always created new opportunities, and freed up the resources to pursue those new ideas such that it has never been a negative or zero sum game.

I'm not really disagreeing with what you're saying, just that I wouldn't be betting my money on "this time it's different".

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:33 pm 
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955876 wrote:
The more expensive their labor becomes the sooner companies will replace those jobs with tech.


If you want to take the argument to the extreme, who's to say AI advanced enough to take most jobs is actually going to want to do those jobs, and do them cheaply?

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:36 pm 
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Dunno.


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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:10 pm 
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Still Lit wrote:
It's a good thing Kodiak and 955876 will be dead when the federal law mandating a universal income is passed after the robots have replaced most human labor within the next 100 years.

Some of you think the Wealth of Nations and the Communist Manifesto are the polar documents of modernity. You're wrong. The real document of modernity is Descartes' Discourse. The goal of modernity is not to make money. The goal of modernity is to master and control nature for human benefit and, as Descartes puts it, free us up to do as we wish. If we think dishwashers and agricultural technology afforded us more leisure, we ain't seen nothing yet.

Capitalism vs Socialism is moot.

Automation is rapidly expanding. AI is coming. There will not be enough jobs to go around. Universal income is coming. Even the financial analyst will go by wayside when the algorithms and AI advance far enough.

Work has defined who we are in the West since the collapse of feudalism. That era is on the verge of ending.


I don't doubt this. But I also think it would lead to the downfall of human kind. What would 95% of the population do all day without any type of work? Look at the inner cities now. It would turn to chaos. I see why Musk is so afraid of AI. It won't be some Terminator like scenario on AI killing humans, it will be bored, unmotivated humans with no drive in life to better themselves either killing one another or eating and drinking themselves to death.

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 Post subject: Re: The Mothership is Afire
PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2017 7:42 pm 
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Lit wants chaos :P

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