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 Post subject: Bing Predicts odds for Week 1
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2014 5:52 pm 
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Microsoft's Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that correctly predicted 15 of 16 World Cup knockout stage games, is back for the NFL season. Here are the Bing Predicts odds for Week 1: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft ... 28755.html


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win (70.2% chance) Pretty good odds. Wonder how accurate this will be throughout the season though. Vegas can't be too happy about this little device at all. :lol:


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 Post subject: Re: Bing Predicts odds for Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 10:45 am 
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Steelafan77 wrote:
Quote:
Microsoft's Cortana, the Windows phone virtual assistant that correctly predicted 15 of 16 World Cup knockout stage games, is back for the NFL season. Here are the Bing Predicts odds for Week 1: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft ... 28755.html


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers — Steelers win (70.2% chance) Pretty good odds. Wonder how accurate this will be throughout the season though. Vegas can't be too happy about this little device at all. :lol:


Although I think soccer is closest to football from a analytical point, AM. Football still has way more moving parts on every play to make these be very good. One of the better ones I had ever seen was an old old application ( ran on my Apple IIe) that used historic data for covering spread, field type, home/away and about 50 other stats. We had to enter the info in every week from the newspaper. It was very good for playing a parley.

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To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection.
- Henri Poincaré


Last edited by jebrick on Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Bing Predicts odds for Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:02 am 
I don't think it's a threat to the bookmaker...they are in almost complete agreement as to who to pick on the moneyline...although I would differ in that I think the Eagles and not the Broncos would be the best money line play.

But what is interesting to me is following the anomalies...this week it is only the Falcons and Saints. Given that divisions history and the fact they were both 3 point games last year make this one of the more difficult games to pick. If there program produces on games like this...they might be on to something.

My gambling history is such that I believe in throwing out nearly every statistical trend that exists beyond last year...most of the time each teams previous three games actually...but I've not come close to a winning formula.


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 Post subject: Re: Bing Predicts odds for Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 11:26 am 
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When I would go to the casino and watch a Steelers game I couldn't help but play their parley card every week. 50 to 1 was astonishingly enough the odds they offered and I felt like I could nail a 14 to 16 game week no problem. This was back in 2003/2004. As was stated above there are some many "moving parts", "variables" that it's no walk in the park. At least for me and my buddy it wasn't. Closest I got was 14 games picked correct out of 16. You'd have to get all 16 correct obviously to win. No points, no other hitches just to win. We used to drop $5 or $10 when we felt lucky and (we thought) the weeks games were going to be easy to pick. Well... I never won shit. Got drunk a lot before noon though. After about a year of this I stopped betting altogether. Still went to catch Steelers games though and drink. If I'm going to share my money I'll take the kids out for pizza and games or something more fulfilling IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: Bing Predicts odds for Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:06 pm 
Steelafan77 wrote:
After about a year of this I stopped betting altogether. Still went to catch Steelers games though and drink. If I'm going to share my money I'll take the kids out for pizza and games or something more fulfilling IMO.


:lol: wise choice sir.

Most degenerate gambling fucks only play parlays when only a single game is available i.e. Sunday night play on winner, over/under...generally speaking straight up is the best play...if there is such a thing.


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 Post subject: Re: Bing Predicts odds for Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 12:23 pm 
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long time gamblers will often say parlays are a sucker bet.


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 Post subject: Re: Bing Predicts odds for Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 1:32 pm 
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I do like http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/ for their game predictions. Here is what they have for the Steelers,

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/93 ... WM#!bQb3WM

Quote:
The Machine

BROWNS 10 (30%)
STEELERS 23 (70%)
VEGAS: Steelers (-7)

With all the attention on Johnny Manziel, it's easy to overlook the Browns' excellent defense -- seventh in rush efficiency and third in pass efficiency last season. But the rejuvenated Steelers defense will have the better day against a Josh Gordon-less Cleveland offense.

Leitch

BROWNS 7
STEELERS 17

Can we just get Manziel out there already? I'm yawning even typing "Brian Hoyer."

_________________
To doubt everything or to believe everything are two equally convenient solutions; both dispense with the necessity of reflection.
- Henri Poincaré


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 Post subject: Re: Bing Predicts odds for Week 1
PostPosted: Fri Sep 05, 2014 4:54 pm 
jebrick wrote:
I do like http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/ for their game predictions. Here is what they have for the Steelers,

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/93 ... WM#!bQb3WM

Quote:
The Machine

BROWNS 10 (30%)
STEELERS 23 (70%)
VEGAS: Steelers (-7)

With all the attention on Johnny Manziel, it's easy to overlook the Browns' excellent defense -- seventh in rush efficiency and third in pass efficiency last season. But the rejuvenated Steelers defense will have the better day against a Josh Gordon-less Cleveland offense.

Leitch

BROWNS 7
STEELERS 17

Can we just get Manziel out there already? I'm yawning even typing "Brian Hoyer."


Nice link...I was unaware they were doing scores ATL...the early going can be particularly brutal...I try to look at game 3 of the preseason to get a read on how the starters are clicking...but even that is incomplete, match ups to consider, and much of camp is spent on that first game plan...at least that use to be the case.


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