swissvale72 wrote:
SteelKnife wrote:
Was having a discussion about Sean Payton's end of game decision making. Disagreed on whether going for it on 4th was the right call, but agreed that if you go for it on 4th and get it, like they did, you play safe -- screens, draws, etc. Hoping to, at worst, run the clock down for the tying fg, and at best break a big run.
Throwing to rando TE in triple coverage is a terrible call and decision.
Not defending Brees's throw, but seems that if you go for it on 4th down and make it, then you will NOT play at safe. If one were to play it safe, would have kicked the FG on 4th & 1. Yes, there would have been time left for Atlanta, but Payton going for it on 4th down indicated an intent to win the game in regulation.
I think the only reason for not taking the points there is you're leaving too much time on the clock and your defense had struggled in the 2nd half (and Bryant is a good kicker).
If there were 20 seconds left, you take the points.
So the only distinguishing factor to me is time.
I think you maximize your chance of winning if you play it safe. You either 1) end up breaking a big play on an otherwise safe play and scoring or 2) you give the falcons the ball back, tied, no timeouts, well under a minute to go.
I think while you're more likely to win the game in regulation playing aggressively, I also think, all things considered, that's mitigated by a significantly increased likelihood of losing the game